jakiro
Recently, the industry community has a lot of sound disappointment in Ethereum ecology, because this cycle of Ethereum ecological project’s secondary market is not good enough, or it cannot reach the community’s expectations.The root cause may be dissatisfied with the overall cottage coin.
In this phenomenon, I think there are several main factors:
1. The root cause is that there is no incremental funds to enter the market
The incremental funds of this cycle are mainly based on BTC ETFs, but BTC ETFs trades in traditional stock exchanges such as Nasdaq, and the trustee purchases BTC from the Crypto Exchange.As of August 28, BTC spot ETF had a total net inflow of US $ 17.85 billion, but ETH spot ETF was still in a net outflow of 475 million US dollars.
ETF’s incremental funds have only entered the BTC single currency. This part of the buying is a “Buy Tip” model. There is no real inflow into the market. These incremental funds have basically no overflowing effect on other altoscopic coins.
2. Field memory funds are not interested in Ethereum ecology
The stock game of Crypto exchanges shows the phenomenon of not receiving each other.
Oriental community does not take over the western community’s DEPIN narrative around the Solana ecology;
The western community does not take over the bitcoin layer2 narrative around the Bitcoin ecosystem;
The second -level LIquid Fund does not take over the first -class Venture Capital around Ethereum Layer2 and ZK narrative around the Ethereum ecosystem.
Therefore, the secondary market performance of the Ethereum ecological project is particularly inferior.
3. This cycle is obsessed with base construction, and lack of application innovation
The phenomenon of obsession of infrastructure is not limited to Ethereum ecology, but basically the entire Web3 is still at this stage.As a result, this situation is partly due to the limitations of web3 value capture -fat protocols and thin applications.
Because the value is mostly captured by the underlying chain, VCS is generally keen on investing in various Layer1 and Layer2. The rental logic of the agreement layer is easier to obtain high market value.And the projects of various subdivided functional modules are getting deeper and deeper in technical narrative. It may be just responsible for a very small link project in the entire industry, because ZKP and FHE are more innovative technology.The value has already been held to the ceiling, and the performance of the secondary market will naturally experience valuation repair.However, such projects have basically did not contribute to attracting new users and Mass Aduption.
The hope of breaking the situation may still be on the application layer.
The basic features of Web3 applications with long -term value
Recently, Vitalik Buterin, co -founder of Ethereum, told the web3 application type he hoped to see in Twitter. There are two characteristics:
1. It can be continuously useful;
Second, the principle will not be sacrificed (no license, decentralization, etc.).
From the perspective of investment, I think it can add two -to have a certain ability to make blood, it is best to have some positive.
For Web3 applications with these characteristics, Vitalik lists three specific directions: Dex, Decentralized Stablecoin, Polymarket.
Vitalik mentioned in a straightforward manner that his “disrespectful” affairs are basically the attractiveness from those things that have no sustainable temporary sources.And for example, the liquidity mining in 2021 (referring to the token incentive of liquidity mining is a source of temporary income that does not have sustainability).
Exploration and analysis of web3 applications
In the past few years, we have witnessed the application exploration of many directions, and some of them have been falsified, such as: Gamefi 1.0 in the X2EARN model; and some values have been proven, such as the application of stablecoin in the payment field.
1. DEFI: The protocol itself has long -term value, and the governance tokens have no capture value
DEFI is one of the most successful application scenarios in Web3. It tries to restructuring traditional financial services through decentralized ways.DEFI includes borrowing agreements, decentralized exchanges (DEX), derivatives transactions, stablecoins, and asset management agreements.
After a complete round of beef and bear cycle, some very high -quality head DEFI protocols were left.Such as borrowing protocols (AAVE, Compound, etc.), DEX (Uniswap, etc.), stabilizing currency (MakerDao’s DAI, etc.), derivatives (DYDX, etc.).
But the Token of these DEFI protocols did not actually perform well in this cycle.It can be attributed to two key factors:
-
After ETH2.0, STAKING and RESTAKING have been narrative. These new projects generally have token incentives for participating users and diverted most of TVL; while the previous DEFI protocol, after decreased liquid mining rewards, LPS income incentivesSignificantly reduced;
-
There is generally no value of the governance tokens to capture the agreement. The business volume of the DEFI protocol is still considerable, and the agreement revenue is also considerable.Agreement income lacks value capture).
Although the token market of the DEFI protocol is inferior to, the DEFI protocol is actually continuous useful, some positive, and at the same time that it also meets the basic principles of Web3 (no license, decentralization, etc.).
2. Prediction Market: Holy Grail of Cognitive Technology
Vitalik has repeatedly mentioned the application prospects for predicting the market. He believes that predicting the market is a holy grail of cognitive technology.
The unique nature of the forecast market is matched with Web3.The predicted market provides a decentralized knowledge acquisition and information marketization by allowing users to make betting or prediction by allowing users to make future incidents (such as political elections, sports events, financial market trends, etc.).Naturally suitable for the use of the decentralization of blockchain, anti -review, global participation, and the implementation of smart contract automation.These prediction market projects can continue to be useful, can meet the basic principles of Web3 (no license, decentralization), or have a certain degree of externality.
Since people are willing to bet on the traditional gaming platforms to bet tens of billions of dollars in various sports events, there are reason to believe that web3 has a certain prospect of a more transparent prediction market.Taking Polymarket as an example: As the US presidential campaign has repeatedly shared the data on his winning rate on Polymarket, Polymarket’s wealth is rushing.440 million US dollars innovate high, with more than 60,000 monthly users’ innovation high), and the latest B round successfully financing 45m.
Prior to this, the iteration of the predicted market did not reach this scale, because the incident was very scattered, and most ordinary users tended to bet on the incident with small fighting, so each incident pool was not too thick.Until the US presidential election, Polymarket accumulated more than $ 550 million in unique forecast funds.
This track may be a well -known Web3 application direction, and the potential market size is large enough.
3. DEPIN: It is both an infrastructure network and may also be the future application carrier
DEPIN is a paradigm innovation for the deployment and maintenance of physical infrastructure.Through Crypto, the Internet, the Internet of Things, and blockchain technology, more efficient, decentralized and fair infrastructure deployment methods are achieved.
The importance and necessity of decentralized communication networks, distributed storage, and decentralized computing power networks have been said in previous articles.
DEPIN may also be a future application carrier. This cycle Solana ecosystem has launched SAGA mobile phones. Recently, Binance Labs invested in CoraLAPP to launch CORALPHONE.These hardware may become a new entrance to the web3 world.
Further expansion, shared the indispensable infrastructure of modern society such as shared transportation networks (such as shared charging piles and electric vehicle networks), may also be able to operate in the form of DEPIN, and give full play to DEPIN’s inclusiveness, inclusiveness, positive and external natureEssence
Summarize
The growth point of the web3 ecology may still need to achieve a break in the application layer, especially those innovative applications that have the opportunity to realize large -scale users.They must conform to the basic principles of web3 in decentralization and no need to license, and continue to be useful at the same time. It is best to have some self -hematopoietic ability and positiveness.
>
