jakiro
Author: Cubone, Wu said blockchain
US listed company BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is trying to replicate the MicroStrategy-style path — — — Use equity financing to quickly increase holdings in Ethereum, and build the balance sheet into an “ETH treasury.”After the transformation was announced, the stock price rose first, then fell sharply and entered a period of fluctuations. Then, driven by the progress of holdings and financing, it rose again and showed revenge.At the same time, due to the continuous implementation of ATM additional issuance, the circulating share capital has continued to expand, and the market value has expanded dynamically with the issuance rhythm.This article focuses on BMNR’s own structure: Can this set of “stocks for coins” reflexive flywheels operate for a long time?When mNAV (EV/ETH, where EV = Market Cap + Interest-owned Debt − Cash) converges and the secondary market takes over and weakens, will it switch from “thickening per share” to “net dilution”?The following is a public disclosure and an on-chain caliber system to sort out its key risks.
Core data: ETH reserves, equity and premium levels
First, let’s look at the fundamental data of BMNR.As of mid-August 2025, BMNR had held approximately 1.297 million ETH, worth approximately US$5.77 billion at the market price at that time.This scale makes BMNR the third largest crypto asset reserve company in the world, behind MicroStrategy and MARA.The outstanding share capital is approximately 173.5 million shares.In terms of stock prices, the August period continued to rise from the low of $30.30 to the stage high of $71.74 (range increase of about 136.8%), and then fell back to Friday’s closing of $57.81 (90.8% from the stage low and about 19.4% from the stage high), corresponding to a market value of about $10.03 billion.According to mNAV = (market value + debt − cash)/ETH holdings market value and calculated on Friday’s closing caliber (market value of US$10.03 billion, debt of approximately US$1.88 million, cash of approximately US$1.47 million, ETH holdings market value of approximately US$5.77 billion), mNAV is approximately 1.74.
The strengthening in early August was mainly driven by a series of catalysis: the listing of stock options on July 23 increased the accessibility of trading and hedging instruments. On July 29, the board of directors passed a repurchase plan of up to US$1 billion. On August 4, it disclosed that its holdings exceeded 833,000 ETH. After the disclosure of exceeding 1.15 million ETH on August 11, the market’s expectations for the “stocks for coins” rhythm were continued to be revised.The subsequent decline is mainly driven by the regression of the mean valuation caused by the phased excessive expansion of premium (measured in mNAV), accelerated under the resonance of the rise in ATM supply expectations and the weakening of the secondary market, and superimposed on the ETH pullback.
Structural mechanism: Option leverage and mNAV premium flywheel
The company disclosed in mid-July that its approximately 60,000 ETH positions came from options that were already in the price state, and were endorsed by approximately US$200 million unencumbered cash at 1:1; however, the official disclosure caliber has since been adjusted to the total ETH position data calculated in “tokens” (such as 833,137 on August 4 and 1,150,263 on August 11), and no separate list of “including options” items was listed separately, nor did it issue an independent announcement of the completion of option exercise.Based on the current information, there is no clear official document yet to announce that the exercise has been completed.However, based on the changes in the disclosure caliber, the corresponding cash capacity, and the judging of the holding rhythm, the 60,000 ETH is very likely to have been converted to spot after July 17 by exercising or equivalent spot substitution, and eventually, it still needs to wait for the next quarterly report or the derivative notes in 8-K to be confirmed.
The core of BMNR lies in its reflexive flywheel mechanism driven by mNAV (market net asset value multiplier): When the stock price P is higher than the net asset NAV per share (i.e. mNAV > 1), the company can issue additional financing within the premium range through the ATM mechanism and use the proceeds to purchase ETH, thereby increasing the ETH position per share and bringing book thickness (accretion).In theory, as long as P>NAV is maintained, each financing will push up the asset value per share.However, the essence of this model is a structural equity redistribution: even if there is a premium, if the market questions the logic of “continuous exchange of coins to achieve thickening”, the additional issuance behavior may be repriced as a dilution behavior, thereby suppressing the overall valuation level.
In the forward operation stage of the flywheel, its path is: mNAV upward → ATM financing → Increase ETH (ETH per share rises) → Market narrative strengthening and valuation rise → Financing again to form a positive feedback loop.On the contrary, the failure of this mechanism may be triggered by the following factors: mNAV convergence to 1 or below 1, the price of ETH ontology declines, the secondary market is weak, or the expectation of additional supply of ATMs increased, etc.Once the market expects to switch, the flywheel mechanism will shift from “thickening” to “dilution”, forming negative feedback.In this case, companies often need to hedge dilution effects through repurchase and other means to maintain the stability of the per-share indicator, but their execution capabilities will be subject to the actual constraints of unrestricted cash reserves and financing arrival speed.
Therefore, the continuity of this model depends on three key factors: one is the market’s trust in its ETH treasury logic and asset premium pricing basis; the second is the continuous support role of ETH ontological prices; the third is the company’s internal execution level, covering key operational links such as ATM contracts and fund arrival rhythm, OTC procurement capabilities of bulk ETH, and the reinvestment mechanism of pledge income.
Potential crash trigger mechanism: Four major risk alerts
Despite the popularity of BMNR, its pattern-inherent fragility determines the possibility of a pedaling collapse under extreme conditions.The following four major risk paths are worthy of attention:
(I) ETH main body price has been drastically adjusted
The valuations of “ETH treasury” companies such as BMNR are highly anchored to the spot value of ETH held by them. The downward trend of ETH will simultaneously lower the net asset value per share (NAV) and the market value premium multiple (mNAV).If ETH has a pullback after the additional issuance in the premium range, it may trigger a “double kill of valuation basis and market narrative”, amplifying the decline and aggravating liquidity outflows, causing a rapid decline in market value.
(II) mNAV premium convergence and financing chain breakdown
The flywheel mechanism that BMNR currently relies on is based on the high premium of mNAV. Once the premium converges or even falls below 1, the additional issuance space will be blocked and it will fall into a dilemma of dilution that cannot be sustained.If the stable indicators are not enabled in a timely manner, such as repurchase and pledge income reinvestment, it will cause the market to interpret as a growth logic to be extinguished, trigger a reversal of sentiment in the secondary market and accelerate price retraction.
(III) Liquidity tightening and regulatory uncertainty
As a small and medium-cap stock, BMNR’s primary market has limited capacity and financing efficiency is highly dependent on market sentiment and macro liquidity conditions.In addition, ETH’s treasury-based asset allocation behavior is still in a vague regulatory area. If it is defined as “ETF-like”, “structured derivative positions” or “non-operating financial operations” in the future, it may face the upgrade of information disclosure obligations, transaction restrictions, or the application of a stricter regulatory framework, which will impact its valuation basis and financing channels.
(IV) Risk of trust overdraft in shell company structure
BMNR and most ETH treasury stocks are small and medium-sized shell companies whose businesses are stagnant or on the verge of delisting. They lack a sustainable revenue and profit base before strategic transformation, and their valuations are highly dependent on the momentum boost brought by narrative drive and additional financing.This structure is highly analogous to the ICO model: packaging strong narratives, exchanging ETH through shares/tokens, building short-term high valuations, but when ETH pullback or financing is blocked, it will fall into a trust collapse due to the lack of business support and valuation anchorage.
Once trust ebbs, market preferences reverse or supervision tightens, companies that lack actual cash flow and sustainable profit models under the shell structure will face the extreme risks of instantaneous liquidity depletion and nonlinear valuation collapse.
Conclusion: The boundary of the flywheel will eventually be determined by trust
BMNR’s path represents a new business narrative that integrates capital structure with crypto assets.Through the mNAV flywheel mechanism, it quickly amplifies the valuation in a bull market environment, achieving the reflexive strengthening between “equity capital-coin standard-market value”; at the same time, it also deeply binds the volatility, market sentiment and regulatory uncertainty of ETH into the company structure.
This structure shows high leverage and high-speed growth characteristics in the upward cycle, and also has the possibility of accelerated failure in the downward cycle.The decline in ETH, the return of premium, the cooling of the secondary market, and the failure of additional issuance are variables that do not constitute fatal risks, or are superimposed and amplified due to the linkage of the reflexive mechanism, which will eventually lead to a nonlinear collapse.More importantly, as a micro-strategy company transformed from shell structure, its core value does not come from operating capabilities or on-chain productivity, but is based on the market’s expectations of “continuously increasing ETH and creating value per share.”If this expectation is difficult to prove itself, or even encounters counter-proof, the trust basis may collapse instantly, and the flywheel mechanism will be unsustainable.
Looking back at the collapse of the ICO tide after it receded, the market does not lack memory of structural belief breakage.The difference is that this time the “shell” comes from US listed companies; but the same is that under the premise of lacking endogenous cash flow and real business support, any mechanism of “investment for credit” will ultimately be unable to escape the test of time.Whether BMNR can continue in the long run does not depend on how much ETH it can buy, but on whether it can prove that it is an execution-oriented “coin-prime” asset manager, rather than a shell conductor driven by valuation narratives.
