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Author: Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer; Compilation: 0xjs@作 作 作 作 作 作
At present, the biggest problem in the cryptocurrency field is whether institutions and professional investors will allocate cryptocurrencies on a large scale.
This issue is more important than the results of the presidential election, the foreground of the parliamentary legislation, and the technological development of the blockchain field.
The reason is simple: mathematics.
Most investment assets are mainly held by professionals.For example, research shows that institutions control about 80% of the US stock market.In contrast, the cryptocurrencies held by institutions are relatively small.The most aggressive estimate I have seen shows that they may have 10%of all Bitcoin.
In order to make this number reaching a market share of 50%, professional investors need to purchase about $ 500 billion in Bitcoin.Undoubtedly, this will have a huge impact on the price.
So … would they buy it?
Due to the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs and the US SEC requesting agencies to use the 13F form to disclose its ETF shareholding in the quarter, we can now answer this question.The latest batch covers the 13F documents in the second quarter of 2024 to be available last week, and the content they show is very interesting.
Here are three key points.
Key Discovery 1: Yes, the organization is continuing to buy Bitcoin ETF
The first discovery is also the most important:In the second quarter, the agency continued to purchase a Bitcoin ETF.
This is not guaranteed.The price of Bitcoin fell 12%in the second quarter of 2024, and many people wanted to know if this would scare institutional investors.The answer is yes.
The total number of institutional investors holding Bitcoin ETF increased by 14%month -on -month, from 965 to 1,100.The share of their total assets (AUM) managed by Bitcoin ETF also increased from 18.74% to 21.15%.In general, the total amount of Bitcoin ETF held by institutional investors at the end of this quarter was $ 11 billion.
There are some healthy flows in these funds.In the second quarter, 112 investors who held the Bitcoin ETF at the end of the first quarter sold the asset, while 247 new companies invested for the first time.In general, Bitcoin ETF has added 135 new companies.
In my opinion, this is a good sign.If the agency buys Bitcoin when the price fluctuates, imagine what the bull market will happen.
Key Discovery 2: The speed used by institutions is historic
Critics like to point out that the Bitcoin ETF is mainly held by retail investors, and they hold about 79%of the Bitcoin ETF asset management scale.They use this fact to show that the organization’s demand is weak.
This is completely wrong.The speed used by Bitcoin ETF is the fastest in history.
I used a list of Bloomberg Eric Balchunas to study the ownership of the 10 new ETF institutions that have the fastest growing in history. These ETFs ranked according to the Aum after one month after listing.Specifically, I studied the number of institutional holders and the total amount of the institution AUM after two quarters of these ETFs after listing, comparing it with the current status of Bitcoin ETF ownership.
The fastest -growing non -Bitcoin ETF: After two quarters of the market, the institution adopts the situation
Source: Bitwise Asset Management, data from Whalewisdom and Eric Balchunas.Data as of June 30, 2024.
(1) Non -Bitcoin ETF rankings are based on AUM after one month after listing.
(2) Note: QQQ was launched in March 1999.It was not until the first quarter of 2021 that the fund’s 13-F data, so these numbers reflect the ownership after nine quarters of the listing.
Can’t compare at all.The only comparable ETF is INVESCO’s QQQ, but this is just a comparison between apples and oranges.QQQ was launched in March 1999, but I couldn’t find the fund until any historical 13F data in the first quarter of 2001.In other words, the number in QQQ chart represents the fund adopted by the fund after nine quarters.Even so, the number of buyers of Bitcoin ETF is 3 times!
Some people may think that comparing the overall Bitcoin ETF with a single ETF is unfair.But even if you only look at a single Bitcoin ETF, they will occupy the top of the list.For example, Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF (calculated by AUM, ranked fourth in Bitcoin ETF at the end of the second quarter) at this stage of its establishment (139), which was established at this stage, than SPDR GLD (118 people,) Also much.
ETF is a unique investment product, and institutional investors and retail investors can hold them.We should not let retail investors Bitcoin ETF’s historic adoption of the facts cover up such a fact:Bitcoin ETF is also favored by institutional investors faster than any other ETF in history.
Key Discovery 3: Most institutions are still at the initial test level
Another fact: The document shows that in the second quarter, only 0.47% of the investment portfolio of Bitcoin ETFs investing in Bitcoin ETF invested in Bitcoin.
I think this number is very encouraged.After managing cryptocurrency risks for professional investors for more than 6 years, we noticed a trend of Bitwise that they tended to build their own position over time.Many people start from 1% or less from the investment portfolio, but over time, this number often rises to 2.5% or even 5%.
I expect that the average shareholding of institutional investors will exceed 1%within one year, and it will continue to rise from there.
Conclusion: ETF is a narrative for many years
All in all, I found that the 13F documents in the second quarter of 2024 were very encouraging.Despite the falling price, the agency continued to purchase a Bitcoin ETF in the second quarter.Hundreds of new institutional investors were purchased for the first time.Moreover, the Bitcoin ETF is used by institutions faster than any ETF in history.
As the former CEO of ETF.com, I have witnessed the launch of ETF for 20 years.One of the things I know is,Most ETFs are established over time: the first year may be a challenge, but the momentum is often gradually enhanced in the second, third, fourth and fifth year.I expect the same thing here.After all, the main platform has just begun to open the access authority of Bitcoin ETF (Morgan Stanley has approved them earlier this month).I expect the inflow of Bitcoin ETF in 2025 will be greater than 2024, and in 2026 will be greater than 2025.
The institution is constantly emerging, and the scale is getting larger and larger.
