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Recently, the market that the market has been looking forward to the Bitcoin spot ETF has finally been approved. Domestic and foreign media have used eye -catching words such as “milestones”, “incorporate historical bands”, and “heavy official announcements” to describe the sensation of the incident.However, the crypto market after learning was flat, and even after two days after two days, it started to fall down.IntersectionWhat are the short -term and long -term substantial impacts?Let’s analyze the approval of the Bitcoin ETF one by one today, those changes that need to be known …
Spot ETF: Don’t overestimate, don’t underestimate its influence
The market is always affected by the emotionalization of funds, and all directions are based on an overwhelming consensus.A incident will often overestimate its short -term effects and underestimate its long -term impact, or or misjudgment under information asymmetry. So what kind of impact does the spot ETF bring through a multi -perspective?
1) Facilities are only profitable?not necessarily
In the past, there was always a popular phrase “favorable landing” left. The Bitcoin spot ETF passed the long -awaited great benefit. In fact, most of the expected that most of them have been released before landing. From the past year, bitcoinIt can also be seen in a strong trend.
But if you are favorable to land, it is not necessarily.In addition to the short -term profitability and callback part, in fact, we have seen that the transaction volume data of about 4.6 billion US dollars on the first day of the spot ETF is quite beautiful compared to the previous newly opened ETFs.In line with the expectations of new funds that were previously used as traditional financial channels, a strong new buying market was formed in follow -up daily accumulation.
2) There is a major indicator of the encryption market
Bitcoin spot ETF actually has a very similar reference, is the gold ETF,Taking the world’s largest gold ETF “SPDR GOLD TRUST” as an example, because its positioning share is relatively large, it is usually strong to rely on whether it increases or reduces gold as a data to judge the gold price trend.
From the past GBTC’s hundreds of thousands of BTC positions,It is expected that Bitcoin spot ETF will only increase, and it will gradually become one of the major indicators of the encryption market like gold ETF, which will affect the trend of the encryption market.Then the following historical laws that have a reference significance on the historical laws of gold ETF positions affecting the price of gold:
Increased trading volume, decreased in ETF gold positions, and rising prices, indicating that prices may fall immediately;
Increased transaction volume, ETF gold holding volume and price decline, the price may turn to rebound;
Transaction volume, ETF gold holding volume increases, price increases, prompting prices may continue to rise;
Transaction volume, ETF gold holding volume increases, prices fall, and prices may fall in the short term;
Transaction volume, reduction of ETF gold positions, decline in prices, prices may continue to decline in the short term;
Transaction volume, decrease in ETF gold positioning, rising prices, indicating that the price is short -term, and it will soon fall; it may fall;
Similarly, when the Bit spot ETF positioning reaches a certain share, it will also have a similar impact on the crypto market.
3) Pay attention to prevent grayscale GBTC to ETF
In the 11 spot ETFs approved, most ETFs are open to the market, and the net purchase status is definitely a counter -example.Some investors have been holding a long time. After a round of bear market, many people choose to make a profit. Therefore, we will see the short -term outflow of GBTC, and the amount is not small.
But at present, fortunately, the flow of the rest of the spot ETF far exceeds the outflow of “anti -bone” GBTC.The institution has absorbed $ 1.4 billion in funds, exceeding the outflow of GBTC 579 million US dollars, with a total net inflow of 819 million US dollars.
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Translation: As of now, Nine Newborns has attracted $ 1.4 billion in new funds, far exceeding GBTC’s $ 579 million in funds, and its net inflow has reached $ 819 million.At present, IBIT leads others with $ 5 billion, and Fidelity follows.The new trading volume reached 3.6 billion U.S. dollars, involving 500,000 individual transactions (the total transaction volume includes GBTC is 1.2 million). This performance is impressive, with an average premium rate of 20 basis points.
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4) Bitcoin has changed since then, controlled by Wall Street, and was held by ETF?
Some people oppose the spot ETF, thinking that although it has promoted Bitcoin from alternative assets to mainstream assets, it also weakened the decentralized characteristics of BitcoinBecause ETF brings a huge traditional capital inflow, it will dominate the Bitcoin market in the future, and its pricing power is controlled by Wall Street.
The author believes that this kind of concern is unreasonable, but it may overestimate the amount of spot ETF.Because compared to the billions of trading volume and hundreds of millions of positions in the spot ETF,The daily transaction volume of Bitcoin on the mainstream crypto asset trading platform is as high as 12 billion, and the main battlefield of Bitcoin trading is still on the platform.New funds currently admitted through ETF are mostly not familiar with Bitcoin characteristics, worried about some compliance and other reasons without entering directly from the trading platform.With the approval of ETF, the platform will also be more closely monitored, and the compliance and stability of the Bitcoin trading market will also be better guaranteed.
At present, the funds of the spot ETF are controlled by the centralized platform. It is also a centralized platform custody. Why not choose an encrypted platform with no management fee, lower cost, and more flexible management?Therefore, after some new funds are familiar with the characteristics of encrypted assets such as Bitcoin, it is likely to switch and scattered into a compliance and regulatory encrypted asset platform in all countries around the world.EssenceWaiting for these funds to further advance, you can even obtain more free asset management and value -added experience through DEFI.
Of course, the free market in the US stocks itself is a game field. The smaller the target is often manipulated, but the greater the volume, the more difficult it is to be controlled at will. Compared with the traditional financial market with strict supervision, the encryption market has been completely in the past.Under the law, it is easier to regulate the market with various means.Now with the strict stare of SEC, it has regulated a lot.
As for the so -called “rich people take over Bitcoin” in the future, this is not something we can change, but this does not affect Bitcoin to continue running in accordance with its original open and transparent principles, because only in this way, the interests of the rich themselves can get the interests of the rich themselves.Assure.
There is no absolute decentralization in this world. The word “decentralization” has not appeared in Bitcoin White Paper. It is a different “decentralization” that people understand.Sexuality and transparency are not allowed to make evil financial systems in concentrated power.
In fact, even if the physical attributes are powerful and the material is centralized, the gold ore is mainly concentrated in gold, and the mining rights are often only in the hands of a few institutions.ETF’s impact on gold prices is also very limited,And the gold ETF’s positioning is often lagging behind the market reaction. That is to say, after the market is affected by major events such as the macroeconomic economy, the price of gold has been sold in large quantities.Will be adjusted.
Therefore, instead, ETF will affect the market. It is better to say that the market is affecting ETF, and ETF follows the market.
5) The effect of ETF on the Bitcoin ecology
The passing of the spot ETF will undoubtedly serve a “reassurance” in the encrypted industry including the Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin assets may become more and more stable in the future, and the fluctuations will become smaller.
To put it simply, when the fluctuations in the past were large, the development of ecological projects in bear markets was often blocked. Entrepreneurs and users were insufficient confidence. They tightened their trousers and belts.
As a Bitcoin ecological native asset, the steady rising bitcoin price is beneficial to ecological development, and it avoids the blow to ecological development under extreme markets.
In general, the passing of the spot ETF can make the Bitcoin ecosystem more confident and get more recognition.
Next, the market hotspot turns to Ethereum spot ETF?
1) Ethereum ETF expectations
Regarding Bitcoin ETF suddenly came to the market through Ethereum, many people’s explanations are that the funds began to pay attention to the next Ethereum spot ETF that has been approved to be approved.These include the funds that have been profitable and those who are expected to get on the car in the current round of Bitcoin ETF. I hope that the expected quotes that the Ethereum ETF will bring to “eat meat”.
This kind of strategy is very common. A favorable asset landed, and short -term similar assets are expected to rise immediately.EssenceSo how long can Ethereum ETF expect?Bellaide’s application of Ethereum ETF will be answered at the latest in May. Will it be delayed as Bitcoin?
At present, the US SEC’s attitude towards Ethereum as an encrypted assets, it is currently viewing Ethereum as a vague place between goods and securities.That is to say, it is neither as accurate as a commodity like Bitcoin, nor is it completely determined that Ethereum is securities.Earlier, the SEC had almost made it clear that Ethereum was not a securities, but it was mainly because Ethereum switched from POW consensus mechanism to a new change caused by the POS consensus mechanism.
In addition, Ethereum ETF needs to pass, and it is not easy to be controlled by some specific institutions like Bitcoin, and the conditions are relatively strict.Bitcoin ETFs can decline through one of the world’s number one trading platform, and there are too many institutions (capital) applications for ETFs. If they are not passed, they may attract lawsuits.
In general, the Ethereum ETF is fortunate to have a few months. This time is enough to make Ethereum gain market attention. At present, you don’t have to worry about the negative impacts caused by or delay.Not high.
The main variable is whether the US SEC has more sufficient awareness and confidence in the POS version of Ethereum. In additionIt depends on whether the Bitcoin spot ETF can be stable and allowed to run. If the trend of the encrypted market is good, it brings strong interest in global investors. Driven by the benefits, capital is happy to promote the passage of Ethereum spot ETF.
2) Ethereum’s medium and long -term expectations are not ETF
In fact, it can pass the short -term attention of Ethereum spot ETF.What Ethereum is more concerned about is a series of upgrades, including the recent big upgrade “Cancun”. Ethereum is still the largest application ecological infrastructure in the encryption industry. Compared with Bitcoin ecology, Ethereum ecology has already beenAfter walking a far, better infrastructure, better deployment plan, now Layer2 is successfully landed and adopted stably, and Layer3 will be launched one after anotherIn general, the Ethereum ecology has actually begun to prepare the basis of deploying large -scale applications in various tracks. Large -scale applications are likely to be one of the main foundations of the next large market.
Ethereum and Bitcoin are still different. The most important attribute of Bitcoin is as the concept of “data gold” as the asset, so ETF is important to it, and Ethereum comes from innovative application value empowerment.In the middle and long term, the expectations of Ethereum mainly come from its innovationAfter the upgrade of Cancan, there will be more important innovation upgrades on the road. Therefore, we can actually pay more attention to its subsequent technological innovation upgrades compared to Ethereum ETF.
summary
After the Bitcoin ETF passed, it was not a good landing, but a milestone start. It brought a lot of changes and influences. We should treat it rationally.Both Bitcoin ecology and Ethereum ecology are one of the main narratives of the future crypto industry.It is certain that in 2024, we will see that encrypted assets accelerate at the speed visible to the naked eye.
