Arthur Hayes: The Future of Political Memecoin

Author: Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX; compiled by: 0xjs@Bitchain Vision

Over the past century, with the advancement of communication technology, the essential skills for politicians to attract people have also changed.To illustrate my point, I would like to quickly review the history of the President of the United States and look at key advances in communications technology.

radio:

The hottest tech stock of the 1920s was RCA, the dominant consumer radio manufacturer at the time.RCA’s price-to-earnings ratio reached an all-time high of 73 before the collapse and has never recovered.This is one thing to remember about tech stocks…and this time too.During World War I, radio began to emerge as a military technology. After the war, under the leadership of the United States, radio was commercialized.By 1940, almost 80% of American households had radios.Wartime President Franklin Roosevelt is famous for his fireside radio talk, he spoke with the American public, instilling in them the main war propaganda needed at the time, to unite society and sacrifice blood and wealth to fight against the Germans and the Japanese.To be successful, later politicians must have a place in the radio waves.

television:

electricityVideo became the main consumer product in the United States in the 1960s, and 90% of households owned TVs.This is the first time that people across the country can watch the propaganda of the ruling class together.The political watershed moment in television as a powerful tool for political advertising was the September 1960 presidential debate between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon.

Nixon is a favorite to win because he is a more experienced politician.People were familiar with his voice, but not his face.Kennedy is a gentle and inexperienced young man.However, the TV debate showed the American people a look of aging Nixon and a young and energetic Kennedy.Nixon’s poor TV performance turned the situation around and Kennedy won the campaign.Since then, calm television performance has become a necessary condition for winning senior positions.

Internet/Social Media:

It took a while for politicians to really take advantage of social media, which stemmed from the personal computer and the Internet revolution.However, by 2016, this political force had emerged.To see how many political TV and radio ads purchased in the presidential election year, let’s take a look at this statistic: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney spent on television and radio ads in the 2012 U.S. presidential electionAbout $2.6 billion.

Donald Trump’s rise almost started with a joke.He joined the Republican competition for the 2016 presidential candidate.No one thinks he can succeed, and Trump is not going to spend a lot of money on TV and radio advertising and then take political blows.He was considered a trouble within the party and therefore would not receive a large amount of donations.However, while Trump lacks a lot of campaign funds to spend big on television and radio advertising, he does understand how new technologies have changed the media landscape.

Pew Media estimates,In 2016, 68% of adults had Facebook accounts.At that time, it was not common to micro-locate groups for political gain based on activities within social networks.The Trump team seized the gold mine, targeted potential supporters cheaply, and placed political ads on them at a much cheaper cost than via TV or radio.In addition, Trump also used Twitter (now known as X) to communicate directly with people in real time.It’s original, uncensored and confusing.But it is human and it keeps supporters and opponents attentive.Attention is always a commodity that plays a role, and Trump uses social media to attract more attention at a much less cost than any other politician and wins the presidency.

podcast:

Politicians around the world have seen the success of social media in swaying public opinion and have changed their communication strategies.During the COVID-19 pandemic, the comprehensive effect of social media communication on political propaganda was fully demonstrated.Governments around the world are asking large tech social media platforms to spread COVID and vaccine lies to the world and suppress any opinions that are different from the official statement.The content that was cancelled and removed has turned to private podcasts that survive and grow on the Internet.

By 2024, many people will get news and form their own political views by listening to their favorite podcast hosts.Joe Rogan is by far the most successful podcast in the United States.He recently signed a multi-year contract with Spotify for $250 million.Logan has influenced public opinion in the recent U.S. presidential election, especially among the pending voters.Trump appears on the Logan show, but Harris doesn’t.Trump has appeared in numerous podcasts that attract his supporters.Harris continues to pass tried-and-tested TV and radio shows, supplemented by stale ads on social media platforms.Trump defeated Harris because he once again used advances in communication technology to connect himself more directly with voters.

What have we learned?

As technology develops, information can be spread to a larger audience faster and cheaper, and the connection between politicians and the people they rule is more direct.As rulers become more humane, they must adapt to the way in which the political platform is conveyed to the people.Humanization is not always good for politicians, because the public will soon realize that they are as mentally retarded as fools.

TRUMP

Trump is the first politician to officially launch his own memecoin, arguably one of the three most influential politicians in the world (the leader of China and Russia, who are comparable to or close to him).Trump has ushered in a new era of politics memecoin.

I think the political Meme coins will do the following:

Provide real-time global polls about politicians
Increase participation and influence of political movements at almost no cost
Get billions of people to join Web3

Let’s dig deeper.

Common sense game

Political popularity is a common sense game.Everyone believes that what others believe can influence our perception of politicians more than what we ourselves believe.This leads to information asymmetry because in public we believe in one thing and in private we believe in another.So we provide pollsters with spam about our true views.This puts politicians in trouble because they want to get a real-time look at our personal views.However, if publicly supporting unpopular politicians is socially acceptable, it also allows unpopular politicians to pretend to be welcomed.In short, both the government and the ruled have imperfect information, which leads to policy mistakes.

Politics Memecoin provides zero-knowledge proof of political popularity.Specifically, as an individual, you can now support politicians by purchasing memecoin from politicians, which your friends hate and don’t face any social stigma.Therefore, politicians can understand the true opinions of the people.Finally, those who just want to go with the flow can support politicians because their memecoin price has risen, which gives them the confidence to support the side that everyone knows everyone else knows will win.

This phenomenon is reflected in the rise of Polymarket, a decentralized exchange that allows betting on political outcomes using cryptocurrencies.Polymarket has gained fame for its 2024 Trump and Harris election forecasting markets, which show in real time who the global community thinks is more likely to become the next U.S. president.Anyone with an internet connection and cryptocurrency can place bets on the results and let participants from around the world make guesses.

Polymarkets are under attack in the United States because their market shows that Democratic candidate, establishment favorite Harris, will lose.The Democrats are trying to deceive the public and convince them that Joe Biden is not a lunatic and that Harris is popular.But that’s not the case, and mainstream media has been using this trick until Biden destroys his future in a debate with Trump, and Harris loses the election.However, despite the establishment media and large tech platforms lying to the public, Polymarket makes it clear that Trump is the most likely person to win.The establishment was so angry that the public had a real barometer of the election that the CEO of Polymarket was lashed out.

In other parts of the world, authorities may preemptively ban Polymarkets so that unfiltered real public opinion can be expressed in real time.Polymarket is banned in France.Why should France care about the political forecasting market in non-election years?President Macron is very unpopular, but he will not allow new elections until necessary in 2027.If there is a real-time market that shows Marina Le Pen is most likely to win the 2027 French election, that is not a good thing for him and his political allies.This could accelerate the collapse of his globalist order in France.Therefore, the Polymarket must disappear.

If the goal is a globally accessible, easy to understand, and impossible to ban, then the political Memecoin trading on DEX is the perfect tool.

Three attributes of political Meme coins

Let’s evaluate the political Meme coins based on three attributes required to create a global political popular market:

Accessible worldwide:

Meme coins are just a unique public address that issues a certain number of tokens that exist on the public blockchain.DEX itself is a snippet of code executed on a public blockchain where you can trade these tokens.The most popular trading pair is [Memecoin / USDe ].Therefore, anyone with a connected device can trade political Memecoin.

Easy to understand:

Do you like this politician and are willing to show your support?

Do you believe that others like this politician or will like this politician in the future?

Before you decide to buy political memecoin, you only need to answer these two questions.

People buy TRUMP because they want to be part of Trump’s supporter community, or they believe Trump’s popularity will increase in the future.

That’s it.No need to know any fancy economic or financial theories.You don’t need to understand algebra, basic calculus, statistics, or probability theory.You just have to think and feel like a dynamic person.So anyone can understand what gives the political meme coins value.

It is impossible to prohibit:

Memecoins is built on a public blockchain, and the public chain itself exists because miners or validators run specific software.At a high level, to destroy the public chain, you need to remove all miners/verifiers and then turn off the internet.

With the current scale and penetration rate of the public chain, it is impossible to remove all miners/verifiers.It’s like hitting a gopher.Once the operator is removed from the network, profit motivation attracts others to join.

Because modern society relies on Internet-connected devices, the government cannot shut down the Internet and survive in its current form as a governing body.

Therefore, while the government can severely criticize the negative impact of Memecoin from its own perspective and selectively prosecute individuals and companies that provide or participate in Memecoin transactions, they can never eradicate Memecoin on a large scale.Trying to do this will only make Memecoin transactions more popular.

What does Politics Memecoin tell us about politicians?

Since participants vote with their wallets, memecoin is the purest and most honest indicator of popularity.When people talk to pollsters or friends, they often lie about their true political views because they are afraid of going against the masses.Memecoin trading is a zero-knowledge proof of political popularity, and no one knows who owns or trades what unless the trader reveals his/her identity.Given that real digital currencies are at risk, it doesn’t make sense to buy $TRUMP if you hate Trump or think his popularity won’t rise.If you think so, you will not buy it at all, or will short the $TRUMP/USDe perpetual contract.That’s why the price direction of $TRUMP shows his true global popularity.

Belonging and greed are the two most powerful motivational factors in memecoin trading.So, I believe we can infer their specific situation by looking at the memecoin chart of politicians.If the price of memecoin rises, it means that people are satisfied with the current and expected policies, and if the price drops, it means dissatisfaction.With the surge in political memecoin transactions, we will be able to identify changes in popularity directly based on discrete policy outcomes.The bill passed, the war started, the speech delivered, etc. will immediately affect citizens, which can be observed by looking at the post-event price performance of a particular political memecoin.

Most politicians just want the public to know when others like them, not when others despise them.So why do they launch their own memecoin?I believeIn so-called democratic countries, any politician formally recognizes his memecoin will become a political need.To understand why, let’s discuss how to win the election.

Politics Memecoin as a campaign tool

To win the election, politicians must let people come out and vote.It’s hard to do because voters have so many other things to do.But if the politician owns memecoin and you buy it, then voting is the best for you so that it can retain its value.Therefore, memecoin is the best tool for political participation ever.They directly link economic gains to the vote support of each voter, not just large campaign donors.

As long as the challengers support politics memecoin in a certain campaign, they have the upper hand.This is because they can provide direct financial benefits for voting outside without paying.Memecoin is the most effective form of political advertising because they can be used as viral digital word of mouth.Trump succeeded in one fell swoop and just promulgated campaign finance reforms, which I don’t think he even knows.

To activate their supporters, challengers will participate in online events that cost no cost.Trump won the 2024 election because he was willing to appear on the podcast like Joe Rogan.The winners and losses of the next major election cycle will be decided on the X-spaces or Discord channel.The goal of politicians is to discuss their political program and increase the number of memecoin holders.With the Internet and social media, one-to-many conversations are free; building a community is difficult and time-consuming.However,It is much easier to build a community of fanatical supporters when everyone can get economic benefits from political success.This is much more effective than radio, television or internet advertising.

Many “old-school” politicians won’t believe me.In the US at least, the 2026 election will see a large number of new personal political brands created through memecoin, which will defeat the alleged invincible incumbents.What if Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters were all defeated by the upstarts in their party because of political memecoin?

Although we will have to wait a few years for the political memecoin earthquake to shake peace under the US, its impact may soon appear in Europe.Germany will hold new elections next week.The rulings are doing their best to prevent AfD (German Alternative Selection) from taking power.What if AfD created a lot of political memecoin for every member of the campaign?What would have happened if they became Germany’s largest party and received so much support that they could not form a government without their participation?

I know there is not much time left, but it takes less time to create a political Memecoin than to be denied entry into the Bundestag.

What if the British Conservative Party does not want young girls to be seduced by creepy old men after the reorganization and Kyle Starmer is forced to hold a new election?Can reform Britain launch a series of politics supported by its future MPs to retake the British Parliament?I don’t know, butmemecoin is the most popular way to spread the wisdom of the masses, and Trump has just opened Pandora’s box.

Campaign financial thought experiment

For any reader with new ideas and aspiring to serve society but has no pockets, this article can serve as a blueprint to fund your budding political career.

Let’s make a joke.Imagine bankrupt Infowars host Alex Jones hopes to run for the U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2026, competing with strong incumbent Chuck Schumer.Alex obviously has no money and no credibility as a large corporate donor.While people may agree with some of his views, no one wants to take risks for the loser in broad daylight.

Alex decided to raise funds for his campaign by issuing $JONES memecoin.At the time of issuance, only 10% of the supply was in circulation and 90% was held by Alex’s campaign, without lockdown.Experienced memecoin traders may yell “RUG PULL” as the campaign holds a large number of unlocked tokens.However, campaigns need to raise funds by selling tokens.

Anyone who buys $JONES implicitly understands that they are the exit liquidity of the campaign.The campaign has to raise funds by selling memecoin, so by buying $JONES for a higher price, the buyer is actually donating to the Alex campaign.However, the possibility of Alex winning is that the price of $JONES will soar.

$JONES holders will be motivated to promote Alex’s political platform to everyone and how it will benefit the constituency.This brings more buyers, allowing the campaign to raise more money by selling memecoin, which increases Alex’s chances of winning, thereby increasing the price of $JONES, which goes back and forth.Additionally, gloom may prompt many buyers to buy $JONES in favor of establishment, as it would be fun to see Schumer lose to Alex Jones.

This is how Web3-proficient political disruptors fund campaigns and create viral marketing machines.

Before discussing how Maelstrom will profit from the future of political memecoin, I want to talk about some of the negative sentiments surrounding this new asset class.

Oppositions against political memecoin and their rebuttals

It’s really funny to hear those cryptocurrency people scoff at political Memecoin.I will elaborate on some of the main complaints and the reasons why I disagree.

Politicians should not use their power to seek benefits.

The easiest way to get rid of this concern is to distribute 100% of the tokens at issue.Then, if politicians want to believe in themselves, they enter the market at the same price as others.If their popularity rises, they will make a profit personally, but I would rather do so than accept bribes and fake bribes from wealthy companies and individuals behind the scenes.If politicians can make more money more transparently by simply holding their memecoin, then they will do the right thing for the people, not for the rich, because popularity will become very profitable.

$TRUMP looks like a liar because his family and close partners hold 80% of the supply.However, I don’t believe it.Token economics is well known.If you choose to buy it, you will buy it with your eyes wide open.This is much better than the Biden family’s pampering themselves by offering a lot of secret bribes to this or that super secret corporate entity from foreign companies.Well, if the money collector is not an addict, they will become super secret.

When $TRUMP is dumped, it will destroy retail holders and rewind the industry for many years.

Memecoin Volatility is a characteristic, not a defect.Cryptocurrencies are a free market where stocks are manipulated by central banks, commercial banks and governments.Everyone knows this and knows that the game is manipulated.Remember GameStop?Cryptocurrencies, for better or worse, are a global competitive free market without ruling institutions.If people can now express their views on politicians through financial markets, it is progress.If politicians deceive their followers, they will be elected to step down.

Trump should focus on developing regulations that support cryptocurrencies, not memecoin.

I think Trump has inadvertently provided the people with a new weapon to fight political corruption.That’s why mainstream media is trying to cover up this phenomenon.They recognize that improper transactions of election advertising and campaign funds will come to an abrupt end.They also recognize that political movements that are not allowed to win can now change common sense by showing the correct political Memecoin price.

Memecoin, especially the political one, is useless; the industry should recreate “real” technology.

Anyone who says this has a bunch of zombie cryptocurrencies in their portfolio.Or they are the founders of a project whose token price has been falling.They see people express their enthusiasm through a culture of transactions and express dissatisfaction with them not doing something “useful” with their money.They only believe that if civilians’ money goes into their pockets, it is “useful”.Go fuck yourself and your junk coins.

Politics memecoin as an asset class

Maelstrom can benefit from this sport in several ways.

L1 blockchain

The L1 blockchain benefits from memecoin transactions, as each transaction must be paid in gas in native tokens.Obviously, Solana is the chain for most memecoin transactions, and it is also a chain launched by $TRUMP.However, according to Moonshot statistics, 50% of the wallets holding $TRUMP are Solana’s new wallets, with almost no funds in the wallet.Solana is not necessarily the chain of most political memecoin transactions.

You all know what I’m going to say.Remember, Maelstrom won’t offer services for free.We believe Aptos has the opportunity to monopolize this market.It depends on speed and cost.Aptos has the fastest block time and cheapest transaction fees in all L1s.Aptos’ way to win this market is to integrate seamlessly with the Web2 platform that has users.Aptos was born on Facebook, the Web2 giant, and its team has the ability to execute such collaborations.Stay tuned!

Spot.dog

Jupiter and Raydium are two of the most popular places to trade on-chain memecoin.Their tokens perform very well and trading volume will continue to increase.However, the user experience is more suitable for cryptocurrency native users.For those who just want to imitate memecoin of their favorite politicians, Spot.dog (Maelstrom Portfolio) provides a better, simpler user experience for memecoin trading.Thanks to their partnership with Stocktwits, their user base is large, and we believe this will become the preferred place for ordinary people to trade memecoin.

Political memecoin derivatives

Options

Political memecoin has spawned the demand for option trading.This is because some discrete events (such as elections or voting on a certain bill) can cause drastic changes in popularity and prices of a particular memecoin.The best way to express a bullish or bearish view of the outcome is to use options, where you have the right but are not obliged to buy (buy) or sell (bearish) at the pre-determined strike price.Platforms such as Derive (Maelstrom Portfolio) are ideal for developing these markets.

On-chain ETF

In the near future, when every politician around the world supports their own political memecoin, traders will want to trade a basket of memecoin related to a particular political party.Imagine if you could trade the popularity of the Democrats and Republicans based on the vote prices of all elected members in the House.Or, in parliamentary system, you can trade the British Labour Party with the Conservative Party.Maelstrom will certainly invest in a protocol that allows for easy creation, listing, trading and redemption of these types of political memecoin ETFs.

Politics memecoin in non-Western countries

Will some leaders of Feb. Western countries launch their own political memecoin?No, not now, but may be later.

While it is great to enjoy the glory of the people through objective standards, there are some drawbacks when your words and deeds cause the price of memecoin to drop.Ultimately, every leader, whether democratically elected or not, will support their own political memecoin, because when it comes to political popularity, people will no longer trust dishonest pollsters and propaganda machines of mainstream media.They will ask for a political memecoin and eventually issue a political memecoin.

Political memecoin as a barometer

Narcissism is a necessary personality trait for successful politicians.They have to be confident in their unique ability to plan a better future for everyone and constantly tell everyone how great they are.therefore,I believe Trump checks the $TRUMP price as much as he checks the S&P 500 level, which means he checks it all the time.

$TRUMP has fallen about 80% from its highs, and Bitcoin has not recovered $110,000 (the level reached at the peak of $TRUMP fanaticism).I believeIf crypto sentiment improves, $TRUMP will lead Bitcoin.If political figures believe that certain policies will have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies, $TRUMP will rise sharply before the good news is released, and Bitcoin will follow closely behind.

The United States is leading the way, with the rest of the world following, given that other major fiat currency issuing centers are responding to Trump’s macroeconomic and monetary policy.therefore,I have $TRUMP as a prominent part of my cryptocurrency watchlist.If I see it soaring or falling quickly, then I know something is happening.

We have entered a new stage in the crypto capital market.Now we will have a large number of forward-looking tools that can trade with political factors that directly affect the price trend of cryptocurrencies.

The game begins!