jakiro
author:Lao Bai
I looked back at my prediction of this round of main line a year ago and was half correct.The current main line and secondary main line are currently the following feel
1. Payfi – This cannot be miscalculated, but it should be a “stablecoin” more precisely. Now RWA can actually throw it into this line.
The most important targets on this line are currently worth paying attention to –
$CRCL – is essentially betting on Circle’s top two stablecoins. The current price of $135 is still not cheap, but considering the 5-8-fold expansion of stablecoins in the next 5 years and the big pullback from $300 to $108 in the past few months, it may be a good opportunity to get on the bus. I personally have already stopped by $115.
$PlasmaFDN – Since you don’t have Tether’s equity, then Plasma is the only target you can buy at present. Of course, I will wait for spot and mainnet, rather than Bang contracts.Plasma currently exceeds Stable and similar competitions in terms of financing scale, ecological construction and social voice.The TVL online on the main network is basically 3-4B.The current pre-market/contract price of 6B is also very not cheap, so wait for the spot to go online to find opportunities.Similarly, the trillion-dollar stablecoins will bring huge imagination space to the stablecoin public chain in the next few years. It is a big highlight to see who will fall in the stablecoin public chain.Currently, Lao Longyi Tron’s TVL of USDT fell from high 83B to 77B in the past January, and the rookie circle (Plasma, Stable, Arc, Tempo, Codex, etc.) is temporarily leading Plasma
$ENA – This is considered the hedging of the first two. As the biggest narrative of the stablecoin, you should bet both centralized and decentralized.The only thing worth buying in decentralization is Ethena. USDE has exceeded 13.5B, and DAT and fee switch are also ready, with the fundamentals being one meter stable.Oh by the way, there is also a centralized USDTB that is about to break through 2B, and there is also its own RWA public chain Converge behind… It is a lot of good news, but the currency price performance has been quite depressed recently. Is it the dog merchants that are shipping?!
$Ondo – This last Twi just said that my Crcl was bought by Ondo. Currently, the only one that can trade US stocks at 5X24 without KYC threshold (passing 1inch) + endorsement by large institutions is relatively safe and reliable.If you are optimistic about the RWA trend of Borderless US stocks, Ondo is one of the few targets you can buy.Of course, the market value is actually a bit unstoppable. The high-controlled FDV style is obvious, so it can only be said that good products are not cheap…
2. AI Agent – This cannot be considered correct.Last year’s AI Agent was Goat, ai16Z, etc., which was indeed popular for a while, but later everyone found out that these things were nothing more than skinned Meme, so they stopped.This year, there are actually many AI Agents that are really useful and have potential PMF.For example, Skywork on Web2, @HeyAnanai on Web3, @gizatechxyz on Web3, @Almanak__, @ReiNetwork0x and so on are also good.
What I personally pay most attention to is the Bittensor halving incident early next year. If you can create a golden pit before and after that, you can consider buying it.The leader is still the leader, and the revenue of three or four subnets is gradually increasing. Overall, it is still the most promising Web3 AI project that has the most hope of running out something.
3. Meme – This is indeed true. Meme has been popular since last year to now, and even this year, major Launchpads have seen a prosperous business battle with the market from Pump.However, your uncle will always be your uncle. Pump is still far ahead and has begun to enter the live broadcast track and start to take the Web3 Tiktok route.Meme track Alpha changes every day, Beta has and only Pump
4. In addition to the above three main lines, a potential new main line of this round is to predict the market. Polymarket data has been growing steadily, while Kalshi is even more explosive. The data performance in the past month has been taken off the Polymarket street.The primary market has been filled with dozens of new forecast market projects this year, and there have also been HIP-4 proposals specifically for the Event forecast market on Hyperliquid (HIP-3 is not very suitable for many event forecast markets).Today I also saw an insurance industry expert post saying that predicting that the market will develop in the future may subvert the current insurance industry. After all, the insurance industry is based on some financial packaging based on probability and mathematics. What if users can contact + hedge these transparent probability and risk exposures by themselves, instead of accepting the odds like the black box of the insurance company?
However, there is no target to buy at the second level of this track, so I can only wait for Polymarket to issue coins. It is said that it has a valuation of 3 billion yuan, which is also expensive…
Finally, there is another perspective to look at the main line of this round, or the only main line, that is, the project of “real income and profit and repurchase tokens”. From this perspective, there are only two tokens to buy – $Hype & $Pump 🙂
To add, in addition to the CRCL, Plasma, ENA, and Ondo mentioned earlier, the reasons why @tempo didn’t write it last time was mainly because I felt that it might not necessarily issue coins.
But after listening to the latest issue of Bankless’s Podcast, I feel that Tempo should be released in the end
If Plasma is optimistic about Tether’s investment, Founder’s super execution ability to do things, and its resource relationship with major blue chips, Defi, and Binance, Tempo is optimistic about Stripe, the strongest Distribution Channel, which serves millions of merchants, and Paradigm, the most technical and hardcore + most well-known VC in the circle, will be directly involved in Build (not investment, but Build)
Hyperliquid’s stablecoin “buyment” war has proved to the market the importance of stablecoins in addition to issuance.The future of the stablecoin public chain may be the two king mode of Plasma To C + Tempo To B?
