jakiro
1. Current situation: The contradiction between the outbreak of BSC chain MEME project and market differentiation
1. Short-term fanaticism of MEME projects
– The myth of the surge between TST and CaptainBNB: The MEME tokens on the BSC chain continue to attract speculative funds. For example, the test token mentioned by CZ once soared to $41 million due to community speculation, and CaptainBNB’s market value rose by more than 13,000% in 6 hours after its launch.With the “zero value support + social media fission” model, this type of project has become the focus of retail investors’ pursuit
– Dominant in speculative logic: Market funds are diverted from mainstream tracks such as Bitcoin and Layer2 to MEME coins, reflecting investors’ short-term game mentality during policy uncertainty
2. The expectation gap in Trump’s policy
– Bubble and controversy of TRUMP coins: The TRUMP coins issued by the Trump family once had a market value of over US$12 billion, but were later questioned as a “disguised corruption tool”. The “first lady coins” issued by his wife Melania further diversified market funds, resulting in a sharp decline in prices
– Regulatory loosening failed to meet expectations: Although Trump promised to replace the SEC chairman and promote Bitcoin strategic reserves, the policy was implemented slowly, and the market’s optimism about “deregulation” gradually faded
2. The core contradiction behind the cold market
1. The short-term imbalance between liquidity release and market structure
– Limitations of TGA liquidity injection: The US Treasury Department releases approximately US$150-250 billion in liquidity through TGA accounts, driving short-term rise in risky assets, but such operations are temporary and difficult to support the long-term bull market
– “Precise Re-allocation” of funds: Institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT), while the altcoin market lacks incremental funds. The MEME boom is more of an internal rotation of existing funds
2. Macroeconomic and policy uncertainty
– Dual pressures of inflation and debt: Trump’s trade protection policy pushes up supply chain costs, and core inflation may rebound to 2.8%-3%, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates and suppress risk appetite
– Intensifying political risks: Trump’s family’s issuance of MEME coins has caused compliance doubts. If the SEC intervenes in the investigation, it may trigger panic selling in the market
3. Unsustainability of MEME model
– Zero value support and high volatility: Most MEME projects on the BSC chain have no actual use cases and rely on community hype. Once the popularity fades (such as TST is denied by Binance), the price may plummet by more than 90%.
– Regulatory risk escalates: U.S. Congress has debated the legality of politicians’ token issuance, and if legislation restricts it, the MEME track will face systemic risks
3. Future forecasts: differentiation, reconstruction and long-term opportunities
1. Market differentiation intensifies
– Bitcoin’s strategic position strengthens: Standard Chartered Bank and other institutions predict that Bitcoin may exceed $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to the inflow of US pension ETFs, becoming a core asset for anti-inflation
– MEME track reshuffle: Only a few projects (such as MEME coins that combine AI or practical scenarios) may survive, most will return to zero due to liquidity exhaustion
2. Policy-driven structural opportunities
– Regulatory framework clarifies: Compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers such as Circle will benefit if Trump successfully pushes for FIT21 legislation, while gray projects face elimination
– Layer2 and DeFi recovery: With the upgrade of Ethereum Cancun, tokens such as ARB and OP may rebound due to technological upgrades and ecological expansion, with a target increase of 50%-100%
3. Macro liquidity rebalancing
– Fed policy shift: If inflation falls below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, rising expectations of interest rate cuts may trigger general rise in the crypto market, and Bitcoin is expected to hit $250,000 (Nexo forecast)
– Inflow of funds in emerging markets: Under the strengthening cycle of US dollar, investors in Latin America and Southeast Asia may increase their holdings of cryptocurrencies to hedge the risk of local currency depreciation, driving up demand for BTC, XRP and other products
4. Investor strategy: Defence and offense coexist
1. Short-term defensive configuration
– Reduce leverage: It is recommended to control contract leverage to 3-5 times to avoid overnight holdings of MEME coins
– Increase holdings of stablecoins: retain 20%-30% of funds in USDC or DAI to prevent black swan events
2. Medium- and long-term offensive direction
– Bitcoin fixed investment: Build positions in batches in the range of 78,000-82,000 US dollars, with a long-term target of 180,000 to 200,000 US dollars
– Layer2 Leader Layout: If OP and ARB pull back to below $0.4 and $1.0, you can gradually absorb funds and the game ecology will explode in dividends
3. Beware of risk points
– Trump policy variables: If it fails to fulfill its crypto-friendly policy, the market may be revised by 10%-15%
– MEME project crash: closely monitor trading volume and community activity, and set strict stop loss (if the price falls below the support level 20%)
Conclusion
The crypto market in 2025 is in a struggle between “Trump Economics” and the MEME bubble.In the short term, the carnival of the BSC chain will not cover up the policy and liquidity dilemma; in the long term, the scarcity and compliance process of Bitcoin are still the core main lines.Investors need to remain rational in fanaticism and capture reconstructive opportunities in differentiation
