jakiro
Original: Liu Jiaochain
On the 24th article, “>UNISWAP (Uni) rose by more than 50%“, Because the Uniswap Foundation posted a post, it seemed to be excited to open the dividend empowerment, and the Internet was excited.But as the article pointed out, “Short -term logic in the market is not the fundamental logic at all, but the fund logic“,”There is a strong village to explode, the news is just cooperating“” “.
Look at the relationship between volume and price, a platform data, pulling the 23rd, 5.58 knives (7 knives-12.58 knives), the transaction volume of more than 10 million (UNI), and 108 million knives; while the 24th long and high level fiercely fights, the day within the day, within the day, within the dayThe volatility narrowed to 2.35 knives (10.5 knives -12.85 knife), but the transaction volume was enlarged to more than 14 million (UNI), and 166 million knives, which was zoomed in nearly 50%; and today on the 25th.1 knife (10.6 knives-11.6 knives), the transaction volume has also shrunk to more than 5 million (UNI), and more than 55 million knives, showing that both and short sides have been fighting for exhaustion, temporarily chaing for troops.
When the fierce battle on the 24th, the monitoring on the chain showed that the position address of the Uniswap team/investor/consultant, from Compound, extracted the 90,000 UNI that was previously stored, and immediately passed the UniSWAP V3 as high as the number high.The goods have been sold into USDC, with a bag of about 1 million dollars, with an average transaction price of 11.48 knives.
This money is not too much.It’s just that it is not very elegant.Although the high -ranking positions are reduced, the heavens and earth are righteous, but for large households such as teams and investors, heavyweight stakeholders, the announcement is reduced, allowing retail investors to run first.
For the first batch of UNI warehouses in the author, this price happens to be at a more interesting or embarrassing level.
As shown in the figure above, if the closing price on March 9, 2021, the batch of UNI positions will greatly win BTC at 102.44%of ROI 472.9%.And if calculated based on the closing price on February 24, 2024, it is basically flat, slightly better.But today the 25th continued to fall, it lost a little bit.
This is also a bow to enter the game, using real gold and silver to verify that truth, crossing the beef and bear, and running to win Bitcoin is too difficult.
Too much too much, obsessed with the pursuit of Alpha (excess returns) for BTC, and often ended up the end of ALPHA.
Spending money to understand, this is called paid tuition.
I haven’t bought it yet, it is called tuition fees.
Fortunately, the fundamentals of Uniswap are the DEFI protocol that can be calculated.Taking 1/6 as the proportion of cost (dividend empowerment ratio), the calculation of the UNI valuation matrix is as follows:
In the table above, there are three dimensions: the first dimension is the UNI supply parameter, which takes 1 billion yuan as full support, and CMC data is 5.98 billion as actual circulation (Circulated SUPPL); the second dimension isAgreement capture cost parameters, take 24h data and then seek annualization. The minimum value of 2 million knives is the actual data on the chain reported by Info.uniswap.org recently, while 3 million, 4 million, and 5 million are assumed hypothesisThe bull market will bring a higher transaction volume and increase the average fee income; the third dimension is to assume that the P/E valuation multiple is assumed, and the two values of 50 times and 100 times here are simply placed.
Of course, the author’s algorithm is very dry and rough.If a friend thinks that when the bull market comes, the market will run out of the market, and what will run out of the “city dream” or the like, it belongs to things that exceed the category of rationality, and each has its own imagination space.Just like the author estimated that the “UNI’s valuation range was between 1.47 US dollars and $ 2.16”, thereby supporting the decision -making of the two knives below 2 knives at that time.Urgent, and the valuation range of the measurement was 1.47-2.16, which was soon disappeared. In just half a year, it rushed to a maximum of nearly 45 knives, with a rendering range of 20-30 times.
When the anti -body effect works, no one can predict the irrational market where it will go.The rational calculation can give us a trace of comfort that the bottom of the market will probably be.For example, in the above valuation matrix, 6-10 knives are probably the worst level.No matter how low, maybe it is probably Graham’s cigarette butt, right?
