jakiro
The brightest star in the market in July is Ethereum.
As the weather vane of copycats, the market spotlight has finally hit the spotlight againOn ETH.
Time is hereIn July, things turned around.Suddenly, Ethereum became hot, soaring from $2,400 to $3,860, and gaining more than 60% in one go.The impact brought by the naked eye is visible. The monthly return rate of the Defi sector exceeds 40%, and even NFT broke the curse, with the total market value rebounding to above $6 billion, and Cryptopunk was swept up by a large amount.The copycat season seems to be approaching, and the altcoin season index on Coinmarketcap once reached 55, that is, in the past 90 days, 55 of the top 100 currencies with market value have increased more than Bitcoin.
Multiple factors causedThe rise in ETH, the improvement of macros, the opening of policies, the participation of institutions, and its own valuation are all important links.But even so, capital-driven is still the main reason.
From the perspective of gameplay, Ethereum vault and Bitcoin vault have both similarities and differences. On the one hand, listed companies usually accumulate funds quickly through debt or equity financing to achieve holding coins. However, on the other hand, compared with the traditional Bitcoin treasury, it is different from the profits of stocks based on the market value premium.Institutions led by SBET and BMNR adopt the method of pledge to generate interest. In short, unlike the first type of comprehensive betting on market value speculation and abandoning actual control business, institutions with more holdings regard Ethereum as an investment method, and by pledging it to supplement the business segment rather than replace it.
Policy narratives are also conducive to the development of Ethereum.In the three major U.S. crypto bills that have just been passed,The CBDC regulatory bill has laid the ideology for cryptocurrencies, and the clear bill has guaranteed Defi. The legislated stablecoin genius bill is directly beneficial to the stablecoin field. It can be said that the three major bills have established the dominance of cryptocurrencies in the US digital currency strategy and are beneficial to the entry of traditional institutions.In this context, stablecoins and RWA are the prospective tracks of the current consensus, and both of the above are carried by Ethereum as the core.The proportion of Ethereum on-chain in the stablecoin market value is as high as 50%, while RWA is even higher. 7.5 billion of the market value is issued on Ethereum, with a market share of 58.7%.
This uneasiness also includes withdrawals on the data.fromAccording to Glassnode, the data on the transfer of Ethereum price to the exchange after it exceeded US$2,400 continues to rise.Data from Validatorqueue website Validatorqueue also shows that as of Tuesday afternoon, U.S. time, about 519,000 ETHs ($1.92 billion worth at current prices) are queueing to exit the pledge network.This is the largest exit queue size since January 2024, resulting in a delay in withdrawal to more than nine days.According to previous experience, unstaking is usually a precursor to selling.In addition, the decline of the counterfeit index also reflects that investors are gradually returning to rationality from FOMO.
This actually reflects the difference between this rise and the previous one. From the essence,ETH is re-taking the old path of BTC, and its pricing power has gradually transitioned from crypto giants to the institutional side of Wall Street. Before that, ETH did not usher in a huge shock due to dispersed holdings and insufficient attractiveness. But now, with the relaxation of supervision, institutional buying is accelerating this process.A typical example is that even though there are as many as 519,000 ETHs that are exiting Ethereum POS, there are also 357,000 ETHs that are waiting to enter the network. This new demand mostly comes from reserve vault companies.And according to Bitwise CIO Matt Houganpredictions,ETP and finance companies will purchase $20 billion worth of ETH next year, which is equivalent to 5.33 million ETH at current prices, equivalent to 7 times the net new supply in the same period.
Objectively speaking, there are no clear negatives in the current crypto market in the medium term.Rate cuts are close at hand, legislation continues to advance, and new investors continue to increase. From this perspective, even if the momentum for upward is insufficient, the sharp drop is still lacking.Of course, local callbacks and peaks are bound to exist, and hedging at key positions will be a more cautious approach.
Unfortunately, if Ethereum’s rise is purely due toETFs or institutions may promote it, and ETH may move towards the same script as BTC. Under the premise of limited spillover effect, the copycat season that urgently needs funds to recover will arrive.
