jakiro
Author: Cycle Capital
Since the beginning of the US election, a series of related MEME tokens have appeared.After the Trump campaign team publicly supports the donation of cryptocurrencies, especially Trump is the main representative, the highest market value reaches $ 775 million.Due to Biden’s more conservative encryption attitude, his token market is relatively low.After the Trump sealing fee case was convicted, the price of Trump’s related tokens fell, while Biden related MEME tokens rose.During the election, who can become the president of the United States and the open remarks of the encrypted attitude all affects the price trend of relevant token.
Candidates’ attitude towards cryptocurrencies
Trump
In this campaign, a series of encrypted friendship was released in this campaign, including “to ensure that the future of the encryption industry and Bitcoin takes place in the United States, which will ensure that the wallet of 50 million cryptocurrency holders across the United States will ensure that”Self -custody rights”, promised to be elected, the founders of the amnesty of the Silk Road, and so on.
The change in the attitude of encryption is not unable to find.At the end of 22 years, Trump announced on Truth Social that the Limited Edition Trump Digital Trading Card NFT was issued.1 V1 meeting and so on.
In May 2024, the Trump’s campaign team clearly accepted cryptocurrency donations as campaign funds and officially determined the friendly attitude of crypto.
Worship
Biden’s latest attitude towards cryptocurrencies is reflected in the veto of overthrowing the SEC SAB 121.The core content of the SAB 121 is that companies that require custody cryptocurrencies will record cryptocurrencies held by customers as liabilities on the balance sheet.The content has always been considered too harsh, hindering holding cryptocurrencies for customers or companies for customers.In the veto letter, Biden said that “overthrowing SAB 121 will weaken SEC’s power in accounting affairs” and “its government will not support measures to damage consumers and consumers’ well -being”. “
Therefore, compared to Trump, Biden’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies is more conservative.The next time Biden’s opportunity to express cryptocurrencies for the FIT 21 Act. The main content of the bill is to provide a regulatory framework for digital assets.Centralization “to allocate the jurisdiction of digital assets for digital assets (” CFTC “) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (” SEC “).The bill has passed the House of Representatives, and it still needs to be voted by the Senate and the presidential signing to become a formal law.
SEC’s attitude towards encryption supervision
During Trump’s tenure from 2016 to 2020, Trump was an attitude of encryption, and the chairman of SEC was Jay Clayton.Jay Clayton has a cautious attitude towards cryptocurrencies and mainly cracks down on fraudic ICO activities and encryption exchange platforms.The most typical cases are for Block.one, Ripple Labs, and Telegram (for TON). Other cases are more illegally issued to tokens for individuals or companies.
Biden appointed Gary Gensler in April 2021 as the chairman of SEC.Gary Gensler once stated that the individual is “a minimalist in Bitcoin”. Therefore, in the early days of Gensler’s job, the encryption industry speculated that his last SEC chairman was conducive to encrypted development.However, Gensler and Clayton are cautious about both cryptocurrencies of non -Bitcoin and believe that “all tokens are securities.”This statement seems to be loosened on June 5, 2024, but there is no clear encryption friendship.During the Gensler’s job, SEC’s cases of encrypted cases were far more Clayton’s cases, and the cases of exchanges were significantly increased. The prosecution exchanges include Poloniex, Coinbase, Bittrex, Binance, and Kraken.From the perspective of the number of cases and prosecution targets for the SEC, the encryption attitude during Biden was more conservative.
Note: From June 6th, 2023 to December 31, 2023, there are 14 cases of SEC’s encryption cases. From January 1, 2024 to June 10, 2024, there are 6 cases of encrypted cases.
Campaign
Node of the critical time for campaign
From July 15th to July 18th, the Republican National Congress decided to decide the Republican candidates and the political platform.Earlier Trump has been nominated by the Republican candidates.
From August 19th to August 22nd, the Democratic Party ’s National Congress decided to Democratic candidates and political platforms.The candidate was determined to be Biden.
On June 27 and September 10, Biden and Trump’s debate may have a significant impact on the results of the final election.
On November 5, the day of the presidential election.
Key event: The impact of the sealing fee case
All 34 charges charged in the “sealing fee” criminal case were established.The judge will be pronounced on July 11, which may theoretically include imprisonment and huge fines.Trump plans to appeal to the “sealing fee” case.Even if the sealing fee was established, it did not affect Trump’s continued running for the president of the United States.
IPSOS and ABC News also showed that 16%of Trump Supporters will re -consider votes in the case of Trump’s crimes.According to the data of Racetothewh tracking the latest polls, there are currently 8.8%uncertain votes, and Trump’s support rate is temporarily led.If Trump is convicted, then the not sure votes increase to 17%, and Biden’s support rate is higher than Trump.
The sealing fee case has played a role in promoting Trump’s donations.In April, the amount of fundraising was about $ 76 million, exceeding Biden’s $ 51 million, and in the disclosure of the Trump team in May, its team raised more than $ 400 million, mainly due to small donationsThe average donation amount is about $ 70.According to the federal regulations, the specific amount will be announced at the end of June.It should be noted that in the early 2020s election, the Trump team’s campaign funds were also very strong, but in the later stage of the election, the financial situation of Biden team was better.The strong campaign funds can bring some advantages, but it does not ensure the final campaign results.
The importance of cryptocurrencies in the general election (Is it repeated speculation conditions?)
On March 14, a polls released by Paradigm showed that 19% of the US registered voters purchased cryptocurrencies and concluded that “one -fifth of the country’s population was not a niche group.”Cryptocurrency holders are willing to replace political parties.
Swing State is the core battlefield of campaign.According to polls, this year, the main swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and potentially swing states are Nevada, North Carolina and Minnesota.
According to the DGC in May, against Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, 26% said that they were concerned about the position of candidates for cryptocurrencies, and 21% of the respondents saidCryptocurrencies are important issues that need to be considered during the election.55%of people are worried that policy makers will stifle innovation through over -supervision, so the next president is required to encrypt friendship.
According to a polls released by the US CBS News on April 29, the three major swing states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan) of the three major swing states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan) are most concerned about economic issues, mainly growth and inflation issuesEssenceSince Biden took office in the first quarter of 2021, the GDP in the United States has increased by more than 8%after deducting inflation factors, but the economic growth of the above three “swing states” has been far behind the average level of the United States nationwide.In particular, Wisconsin has only increased by 3.1%in a total of nearly four years.
If you want to strive for votes in Swing State, economic problems are still the core, and it is not ruled out that candidates will mention cryptocurrency issues again to fight for young votes.
American campaign theme related MEME tokens
As the corresponding MEME tokens, the corresponding MEME tokens are volatile, involving more risks, including but not limited to: the change of the candidate’s encrypted attitude and the change of the campaign slogan, and the probability of the exchange on the exchange.The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
