jakiro
Author: 0xweilan, EMC Labs
The global financial market in March was not shocked.
Neither the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones index hit a new high.At this point, the NATO has continued to rise for 5 consecutive months, indicating that the tolerance of making more capital after continuously raising the US interest rate cuts.
There are many factors that cause interest rate cuts.
The US CPI rebounded slightly from 3.1%to 3.2%month -on -month. The US manufacturing index PMI rebounded to 50.3%to appear to enter the expansion period. Japan ended the eight -year negative interest rate era to raise interest rates for the first time.
The probability of raising interest rates in the United States has dropped sharply in April, and the probability of interest rate cuts in May also dropped below 50%.
The scale of US debt interest (US Bank of America)
The accumulation of US return capital has been pushed up at the same time as the market for equity and risk aversion.
In terms of interest rate cuts in the United States, macro finance has entered a loose period, and the equity market and the encrypted market have entered a new round of rising cycle.
Start with long -handed sale and end with short hands.The two maintain dynamic balance.
When the rise period, when the newly influx funds control the price, the main buying volume promotes the price increase and achieves balance.
When the rise period, when BTC sells long hands to control the price, the main sales volume promotes the price decline and achieves balance.
Among them, there is an important segment participation group -a profitable hand, and it will also become an important reason for pushing price declines during the rise.
Observation of the sale in March, we found that the long -handed hands had the same frequency selling.
On February 26, both began to sell large -scale coins to the exchange. They all reached the high point on March 12, and then the transfer of scale continued to decline.
On March 12, the two turned into a high point. The next day, the price of BTC began to fall from a height of $ 73835.57, and fell on March 20 to the March low of 60771.14 US dollars.
After March 20, Multi -Army used buying power to return the price of BTC to $ 71288.90, but after 3.20, the selling pressure continued to influx, and the price of the first two trading days in April collapsed again.
Short -hand group selling profits
On March 12, this round of sales launched by the long -handed hands was the first wave of large -scale sales and lock -up profits by the two groups after entering the bull market. The total profit of the two achieved a total of 3 billion yuan on that day.From February 26th to March 31st, the total profit achieved a total of $ 63.1 billion.
It is worth noting that–
In the first half of the major selling for sale from February 26th to March 12th, the BTC is in the dominant price of the buying power, and the price is ranged from 51730.96 to $ 71475.93.
In the second half (not over), which was sold from March 13th to March 31st, BTC was in the period of selling power, and the price fell from 73709.99 to a maximum of $ 60771.74.
Although the peak selling peaks on March 12, the short -selling volume of the short hands at the end of the month is still more than one billion US dollars.
Solana new address
Solana daily active user address
The heterogeneous Etherum’s Solana is considered to be a new carrier of DEPIN and is also a supporting public chain for USDC payment narrative.
However, we must see that these uses are far from being fully developed. At present, the main use cases of Solana networks are issuing and hype Meme coins.Bonk, BOME, WIF and other phenomenon -level MEME coins appeared for the second time, and the daily transaction volume reached hundreds of millions of dollars.A large number of dying MEME coins have finished their lives within a week, but speculators are still happy, making more than 1,000 new MEME dollars daily.
Although Solana is launching eye -catching innovation in the fields of DEPIN, Dex, Staking, Oracle, RWA, etc., the current wave of Solana’s large -scale adoption is still MEME speculation, just like Etherum ICO frenzy in 2017.
This is worrying.In previous reports, EMC Labs pointed out many times that in October 2023, the transformation of a stable coin from flowing to flow in October 2023 is periodic.This trend is the main cause of the start of the bull market, and because its periodicity will not end in a short period of time.Throughout March, a total of $ 8.9 billion in stable currency channels set out monthly inflow records since the round of this round of this cycle.This class is the basic support for BTC prices in the historical record this month, and it is also one of the undertakers who sell BTCs.The circulation scale of stablecoins has not yet reached the high point of the last round of bull market, and the scale and rate of subsequent inflows need to pay close attention.Since the United States approved 11 BTC ETFs in January this year, the funds of this channel have also become one of the important factors affecting the market.Observation data can be seen that the BTC ETF did not have large -scale outflows in the adjustment of this round of selling, and it was recorded slightly from March 18th to March 22nd.
11 BTC ETF flow outflow statistics (SOSOVALUE)Based on the outflow of BTC ETF, we judged that the funds of this channel were processed in a short period of time, and the scale was around 10 US dollars.The amount of funds is still small compared to up to $ 63.1 billion in lock -up profits, so it is not the root cause of this round of adjustment.The funds of the BTC ETF channel continue to flow in, which is one of the important support for the recovery of BTC prices and creating a new high.The growth of funds is the direct reason for promoting the upward price. The continuous supply growth is the direct reason for promoting the start of the bull market.
Conclusion
In this report, we analyzed the price of long -term investors and short -term profitables after the BTC price broke through the new high.
This round of selling helped the seller to lock the profits of $ 61 billion, resulting in a decline of about 17%of BTC prices.
Based on the market structure, we judge that this selling is a normal phenomenon in the market rising period; the flow inflows based on stablecoin and ETF channels and the adoption of the application chain, we judge that the market outlook will be repeated.The prelude should be actively done on the basis of caution for long -term investors.
