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There are new expectations for Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026,The core driving force is not the implementation of bank stablecoins, but the accelerated opening of traditional wealth channels., Vanguard Group and Bank of America have successively relaxed encryption investment restrictions,Combined with seasonal benefits, it is expected to hedge against market turmoil in late 2025.
Vanguard Group, which manages US$11 trillion in assets, lifted its encryption investment ban in early December and opened spot ETF transactions such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to 50 million customers.Although it does not issue its own encryption products, its huge retail coverage capabilities inject potential growth into the market.
Starting from January 5, Bank of America will allow Merrill Lynch and private banking advisors to proactively recommend crypto ETPs and guide suitable customers to allocate 1%-4% of their assets to mainstream U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which means that tens of billions of dollars of wealth that were previously excluded will gain access.
According to River statistics,Nearly 60% of the 25 largest U.S. banks are currently at some stage of direct sales, custody, or advisory services on Bitcoin.
Buyers in early 2026 are more likely to be retirement accounts adding 2% of Bitcoin positions than highly leveraged crypto funds.
Since 2013,Bitcoin’s average return in February was about 15%, and the average increase in Q1 was more than 50%. However, Q1 in 2025 had its worst performance in ten years (down 12%), confirming that the law is not absolute.
Current market expectations have been lowered. Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its 2026 Bitcoin target from US$300,000 to US$150,000. The rebound relies more on actual capital inflows rather than momentum chasing.
In addition, the proposed rules released on December 16 paved the way for state bank subsidiaries to issue “payment stablecoins”, requiring 1:1 reserves as support, prohibiting arbitrary re-hypothecation, etc.
However, this rule requires a 60-day consultation process and may not be implemented until the end of 2026 at the earliest. It will not be scaled until 2027 and will have no substantial impact on Q1.
However, its long-term value is significant. Compliant stablecoins issued by banks can become settlement assets for ETF market makers, deepen the liquidity of the derivatives market, and build the public chain into a credible settlement layer for institutions.
SoQ1 market turned into a mathematical formula, how many customers of Vanguard Group will add 1%-2% of Bitcoin positions, and how much capital inflow can the Bank of America channel bring?
