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Author:Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner of Pantera Capital; Compiled by: Shaw Bitcoin Vision
Looking back at predictions for 2025
Before I share my predictions for 2026, I want to review the eight predictions I made for 2025 to test their accuracy.
I based my eight predictions for 2025 on a subjective scale of 1 (least accurate) to 5 (most accurate).The results were fairly evenly distributed, with no 1 points and two each of 2, 3, 4 and 5 points.
#1 RWA Growth
Forecast: By the end of the year, real world assets (RWA) excluding stablecoins will account for 30% of the total value locked (TVL) on the chain.
Rating:3/5
When I made this prediction, RWA ex-stablecoins accounted for 15% of on-chain TVL and was worth $13.7 billion.As of December 15, 2025, with TVL on DeFi at $118 billion, RWA’s proportion of TVL reached approximately 16%, at $16.6 billion.Therefore, despite the expansion of the RWA field, its share of on-chain TVL remains relatively stable.The main areas include the following categories:
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Tokenized collections: $8.7 billion
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Tokenized goods: $3.2 billion
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Tokenized private credit: $2.4 billion
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Tokenized institutional funds: $2.4 billion
#2 Bitcoin-Fi
Forecast: 1% of Bitcoins will participate in Bitcoin Finance (Bitcoin-Fi).
Rating:4/5
In this case, I actually underestimated the participation ratio.As of December 13, Bitcoin-Fi’s total share accounted for 1.4% of the 19.9 million Bitcoin supply.The current size of Bitcoin’s early liquidity staking market is $2.5 billion.Related projects include Babylon, Lombard, Arch Network and Mezo.
Another application scenario is lending. Ledn, Unchained and Coinbase are expected to complete more than $1 billion in Bitcoin mortgage loans by 2025.Key developments include Babylon’s partnership with Aave, the tBTC credit market, and the Stacks ecosystem powered by ALEX Lab, Zest Protocol, and other applications.
#3 FinTech Companies as Cryptocurrency Gateways
Forecast: Fintech companies will grow in popularity and may rival smaller centralized exchanges in the cryptocurrency holding space.
Rating:5/5
In 2025, fintech companies first compete with, and then surpass, smaller centralized exchanges.According to company reports, Robinhood’s market capitalization has reached $51 billion, exceeding the market capitalization of mid-sized centralized exchanges, while Bitfinex’s market capitalization is only $20.7 billion, making it relatively small.This shift reflects fintech companies’ structural advantages in user acquisition, regulatory positioning and integrated financial services.
#4 Unichain L2 Dominates
Forecast: Unichain will become the leading L2 blockchain in terms of transaction volume.
Rating:2/5
Looking at L2 financing in December, Unichain ranked sixth with a total financing amount of US$260.14 million.Ranking ahead of Unichain are:
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Arbitrum One is worth $17.29 billion
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Base Chain is worth $12.11 billion
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OP mainnet is worth US$2.24 billion
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Starknet is worth $752.57 million
#5 The resurgence of NFT application-specific areas
Forecast: Flexibility is the power of NFTs (non-fungible tokens).Its application scenarios will only continue to increase.
Rating:2/5
In 2025, the application scenarios of NFT will increase in various fields, but overall, the popularity of NFT still faces resistance.Originally used primarily for speculative art, NFT’s practical applications today include:
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Games ($540 billion market) such as World of Dyplans, Pixels and Seraph.
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Ticketing market (market size $1.1 billion), such as OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem, GUTS Tickets and SeatlabNFT.
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RWA tokenization, such as Propy, RealT and Lofty.
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Decentralized identity systems such as Ethereum Name Service (ENS), Lens Protocol and Galxe
The number of active wallets reached 2.1 million in the third quarter, and user engagement increased significantly, with traders holding an average of 8.4 NFTs per wallet, compared to 4.2 in the first quarter.
#6 The launch of the re-pledge protocol
Forecast: Re-staking protocols such as Eigenlayer, Symbiotic, and Karak will eventually launch their tokens, which will pay AVS and slashing proceeds to operators.
Rating:3/5
Rehypothecation in the intended instance did not become as widely adopted as expected, and instead we saw some important rehypothecation protocols expand into adjacent business areas.
EigenLayer/EigenCloud has activated its penalty mechanism on April 17, 2025, and is now fully operational.In the fall of the same year, they also launched EigenAI and EigenCompute on the mainnet, expanding their business into the field of artificial intelligence/computing workloads and no longer limited to infrastructure.However, Symbiotic’s business has expanded into the insurance space, while most rehypothecation protocols have not yet launched due to declining TVL.
#7 zkTLS Trend
Forecast: zkTLS will bring off-chain data to the chain, providing new application scenarios for data verification in DeFi/fintech and various industries and use cases.
Rating:5/5
zkTLS has been implemented in multiple actual products, including the following products:
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Launched in 2024, TransCrypts is intended for revenue and identity verification.
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Launched in May 2025, Accountable is designed to verify financial data between counterparties.
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Earnifi is launching in 2025 to improve EWA underwriting.
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Launched in 2025, DaisyApp is designed to enable verifiable influencer marketing and attribution analytics.
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3Jane is currently in internal beta and is designed to be used for asset and identity verification to underwrite unsecured loans.
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EarnOS is designed for use in verified user acquisition and attribution.
We see zkTLS being used in the authentication space.
#8 Create an enabling regulatory environment
Forecast: We will see a decrease in SEC litigation, a clear definition of cryptocurrencies as a specific asset class, and tax considerations.
Rating:5/5
This prediction is divided into three parts and its accuracy is as follows.
First of all, the SEC has concluded a number of major lawsuits in 2025, including lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken and other companies.All other lawsuits were settled without fines, except for Ripple, which was ultimately fined $125 million.
There has been significant regulatory progress in 2025, but there has been no clear definition of cryptocurrencies as a specific asset class.The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was passed by the House of Representatives in July and is currently being considered by the Senate.The bill would give the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jurisdiction over decentralized tokens and the SEC jurisdiction over centralized/investment tokens.Meanwhile, the SEC released a preliminary, non-binding token classification standard in November.
The third part of the forecast, clear tax guidance, came close but ultimately fell short.While the basic definition of digital assets clarifies that they are property and are subject to capital gains tax and ordinary income rules, there is still some ambiguity in areas such as DeFi broker reporting and non-custodial trading.Areas of progress include: the phased implementation of mandatory broker reporting that went into effect this year; the creation of a staking safe harbor for publicly traded trusts/ETFs in November; and ongoing stablecoin regulatory developments following the enactment of the GENIUS Act.
In addition, in 2025, the U.S. government appointed a cryptocurrency commissioner, created a Bitcoin strategic reserve, established a digital asset working group, and elected an SEC chairman who embraces innovation.
Nine predictions for the crypto industry in 2026
#1 Real World Assets (RWA) Takeoff
As of December 15, 2025, of the total DeFi locked value (TVL) of $118 billion, the size of RWA assets reached approximately 14%, or $16.6 billion.
Forecast:
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Treasury debt and private credit are likely to at least double.
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The growth of tokenized stocks and equity is likely to be even faster when the “Innovation Exemption” under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” program is expected to be launched.
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An unexpected area, such as carbon credits, mineral rights or energy projects, will quickly emerge.The space can be characterized by fragmented liquidity, uneven global distribution and lack of standards, and blockchain-based markets will help address these issues.
#2 Artificial intelligence revolutionizes on-chain security
AI security and blockchain development tools are becoming increasingly powerful.Real-time fraud detection, Bitcoin transaction flagging with 95% accuracy, and instant smart contract debugging capabilities are already available, capable of detecting millions of vulnerabilities in the blockchain.
Forecast: By 2026, on-chain intelligence will usher in greater changes, and deterministic and verifiable rules will replace smart contract-based governance.By then, applications will scan code in near real-time, instantly discovering logic vulnerabilities and attacks, and providing instant debugging feedback.The next unicorn will be an innovative on-chain security company that will improve security a hundredfold.
#3 Prediction markets become acquisition targets
Prediction market trading volume reached $28 billion in the first ten months of 2025, and the space is consolidating around institutional infrastructure.In the week of October 20, the prediction market hit a record high of $2.3 billion in trading volume.
Forecast: There will be more than $1 billion in acquisitions in this area, but it will not involve Polymarket and Kalshi.Successful platforms will build underlying liquidity rails with built-in market discovery intelligence that can point out where funds are hiding and why.No need for fancy new buttons, the point is to easily give users superpowers: instant access to hidden pools, smarter routing, and predictive order flow.
Sports-focused platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have gone mainstream, partnering with media outlets to offer real-time odds.Emerging sports-focused platforms like NoVig will expand their business vertically, and more new startups will emerge in Asia Pacific as the region deserves attention.
#4 Artificial Intelligence Becomes Your Personal Cryptocurrency Assistant
As systems mature, usage of consumer AI platforms will surge to deliver customized experiences that meet individual needs.Seamless integration makes using advanced AI easier and more convenient, taking the user experience from clunky to instantly responsive.
Forecast: By 2026, platforms like Surf.ai will appeal to everyone from crypto-interested individuals to active traders through intuitive advanced AI models, proprietary encrypted datasets, and multi-step workflow agents.I believe that with its advanced technology and easy-to-use design, Surf will become the cryptocurrency research tool of choice, providing instant, on-chain data-based market insights 4x faster than other similar platforms.
#5 Banking giants are ready for success: G7 currency-linked stablecoins are about to be launched
Ten major banks are in the early stages of exploring the issuance of stablecoins tied to Group of Seven (G7) currencies.These financial institutions are evaluating whether an industry-wide stablecoin can bring the benefits of digital currency to individuals and institutions in a compliant and risk-managed manner.At the same time, ten European banks are also studying the issuance of stablecoins pegged to the euro.
Forecast: A consortium of major banks will issue their own stablecoins (whether these pilot projects materialize in 2026, or by another consortium).
#6 Privacy, payment, and perpetual contract: three elements of an organization
Privacy technology is booming in the institutional space, with protocols such as Zama and Canton balancing transparency and confidentiality, but retail users have yet to gain enough attention or achieve scale.The market value of stablecoins currently reaches $310 billion, more than doubling since 2023 and maintaining growth for 25 consecutive months.Perpetual contracts already account for approximately 78% of cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume, and the gap between perpetual contracts and spot options is still widening.
Forecast: When it comes to privacy, the gap between institutions and retail investors will widen further in 2026.The market value of stablecoins is expected to exceed US$2 trillion in the long term and will reach at least US$500 billion next year. The development momentum of perpetual contracts will continue in 2026.
#7 Institutional Macro Perspective
As of December 15, 17.867% of Bitcoin is now in the hands of public companies, private companies, ETFs, and governments.
Forecast: 2026 will no longer be the age of hype or internet memes, but the age of consolidation, true compliance, and an influx of institutional money driven by open market liquidity.Cryptocurrencies will integrate into mainstream platforms, upgrade financial systems, and challenge existing industry giants.
#8 The Year of the Largest Cryptocurrency IPOs in History
The total number of U.S. IPOs in 2025 has reached 335, a 55% increase from 2024; many of them are related to cryptocurrency, including 9 blockchain IPOs.This includes crypto-native companies like Circle, as well as companies with a cryptocurrency component like SPACs (special purpose acquisitions); for example, Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp is set to go public on December 2, 2025.
Forecast: 2026 will be the year when digital assets are publicly listed on a larger scale.Coinbase said that 76% of companies plan to increase their tokenized assets in 2026, with some even planning to dedicate more than 5% of their portfolios to tokenized assets.The Morpho protocol is a prime example, with its total value locked (TVL) reaching $8.6 billion in November 2025.
#9 Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Integration Accelerates
In 2021, there are less than ten listed companies holding Bitcoin.By mid-December, there were 151 listed companies holding Bitcoin, with a total value of US$95 billion; if government holdings are also included, the number would increase to 164, with a total value of US$148 billion.
Forecast: 2026 will usher in a brutal market reshuffle.In each major asset class, only one or two companies dominate.Except for a few long-tail companies that were able to ride the wave, other companies were either acquired or eliminated.This trend will also go global.Japan’s Metaplanet has shown strong momentum, so the United States no longer monopolizes this trend, and the global DAT treasury reserve pattern is becoming diversified.
