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Bitcoin price drops below $86,000ETFs, miners and treasury companies are collectively under pressure, pushing the market into the most severe stress cycle since 2022.
Checkonchain’s report on December 15 showed that investors’ unrealized losses have reached US$100 billion, and 60% of the inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are at a loss.
Data shows that the average cost of ETFs coincides with the real market average in the range of US$80,000-82,000, which is also the core area of the real market average of US$81,300 mentioned by Glassnode.
Bitwise further defines $75,000-85,000 as a support channel, corresponding to Strategy’s cost line of approximately $75,000 and IBIT’s position cost of nearly $81,000.
However, this range only carries 2.9% of ETF funds, and the buffer is weak. If it falls below, the “fortress” area of $65,000-70,000 pointed out by Amberdata will form strong support.
Even as prices rebounded from November lows to above $90,000, the pressure to realize losses has not eased.
Glassnode data shows that the adjusted average daily actual loss reached US$555 million, a new high since the FTX incident, and the relative unrealized loss has been less than 2%, confirming that the market has entered a stress stage.
As of December 15, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF held a total of 1.31 million Bitcoins (approximately US$117.3 billion), and BlackRock IBIT held 778,000 Bitcoins (approximately US$69.6 billion). Although it has recently recorded a net inflow of US$100 million, capital inflows and outflows have repeatedly highlighted risk aversion.
In addition, Luxor data shows that the average price of Bitcoin computing power in November was US$39.82, a month-on-month decrease of 17.9%. It even hit a record low of US$35.06 on November 22, forcing miners to take the initiative to reduce their computing power.
Treasury companies are also under pressure, with most related stocks trading at prices lower than their Bitcoin book values, and the growth flywheel of “issuing shares and buying coins” has almost stalled.
Macro factors also further amplified fluctuations.LSEG data shows,In 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index will rise to 0.5 and 0.52 respectively, which is significantly higher than in 2024, which means that its trend will be more closely linked to the risks of US stocks.
The current market focus is on the cost range of US$80,000-82,000.If this level falls, it may trigger a chain of redemptions; if it holds, it is expected to form a periodic bottom.
You need to pay close attention to three major signals in the future:Whether the realized losses on the chain will fall back, whether ETF funds can turn to a stable net inflow, and whether the price of computing power can stabilize in early 2026.
For some institutions, it is no longer a pure price game, but a balance sheet life and death test.
