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Author: Xiao Yanyan, Jin Shi Data
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday, which combines October and November data, but data collection is hampered by the government shutdown.Several key details will be missing, including the October unemployment rate, which will be the key data series since compilationFirst interruption.
The longest government shutdown in history also forced the Bureau of Labor Statistics to cancel the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.It’s unclear which components of October’s CPI will be available when the November CPI report is released on Thursday.
In order to calculate the unemployment rate in October, the household survey that should have been conducted (to obtain detailed information such as employment status) was not carried out.Government workers also did not visit supermarkets and stores to collect information needed to calculate October’s CPI and other price indicators.
The NFP and CPI reports are critical to Fed officials making monetary policy decisions, as well as to investors, businesses and ordinary Americans trying to assess the health of the economy.The Bureau of Labor Statistics has stated that household survey data and October CPI data cannot be retroactively collected.
Here’s what to expect from the upcoming report:
nonfarm payrolls report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October jobs report but will include that month’s nonfarm payrolls and other details from the business survey in the November report.
The jobs report consists of two surveys, which are typically conducted during the week containing the 12th of the month.
The Business Survey is the source of data for calculating nonfarm employment, hours worked and earnings by industry.Employers submitted responses electronically and continued to do so during the shutdown, allowing the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate nonfarm payrolls in October after the government reopened.
The data collection period for the November survey was extended and additional processing time was allocated.Economists expect the government shutdown to have a limited impact on the quality of business survey data in October and November, and even expect response rates to be higher than normal.The collection rate for business surveys in September was 80.2%, well above the 61.8% average for the previous 12 months.
In addition to the impact of the government shutdown, October’s payrolls may have been distorted by the departure of more than 150,000 federal employees who accepted extended buyouts as part of Trump’s push to shrink the size of government.Most of them were removed from the government payroll at the end of September.
A Reuters survey of economists predicted nonfarm payrolls would increase by 50,000 jobs in November.Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 119,000 in September.
The failure to conduct the household survey during the October survey reference week meansThere will be no unemployment report this month.This would be the first time the government has failed to release unemployment data since it began compiling the data series in 1948.
Likewise, other household survey indicators, including labor force participation rate, employment-to-population ratio, number of people working part-time, duration of unemployment, and demographic data will not be available.
A full November employment report will be released.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in an update on Monday that it has made adjustments to the statistical weights of the November household survey estimates, which will result in the November labor force estimate having a “slightly higher” variance than usual.
“The December estimates will not require this weighting adjustment, when the usual compound weighting approach will revert,” the agency said. “The impact on standard errors will gradually decrease over the coming months until it becomes negligible.”
A Reuters poll of economists predicted the unemployment rate would be 4.4% in November.The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.
consumer price report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects price data throughout the month primarily through physical visits to retailers and telephone interviews.A few indices are calculated using non-survey data sources instead of survey data.The Bureau of Labor Statistics also said it was unable to retroactively obtain most non-survey data for October.
“When possible, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October 2025 values for these data series when it releases the November 2025 data,” the agency said. It added that while it was still evaluating “which series will meet the October publication criteria,” the Bureau “anticipates that the number of indices that may be published will be small.”
The agency stated,No overall CPI number or so-called core CPI number will be released for October(i.e. excluding the more volatile food and energy segments).The Bureau of Labor Statistics said: “It is unable to provide data users with specific guidance regarding missing data for October.”
While the November report will be released, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that for “cases where October 2025 data are missing, the month-over-month percentage change for November 2025 will not be included in the report.”
Goldman Sachs warns volatility in CPI series could increase,and pointed out that “Collecting prices only in the second half of the month may result in low prices,Because as the holiday selling season begins around mid-November, prices typically drop significantly.”
The bank estimates thatLate data collection could drag down overall core CPI in November by as much as 15 basis points.
“Nevertheless, the lack of October data readings may make this drag appear less pronounced on a sequential two-month basis (October-November), and any drag on November prices would correspondingly boost inflation in December,” Goldman Sachs said.
