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Key points of this article
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We expect 2026 to accelerate structural shifts in digital asset investing, driven by two major themes: macro demand for alternative stores of value and increased regulatory transparency.Together, these trends will bring new capital, expand the popularity of digital assets (especially among wealth management advisors and institutional investors), and enable public blockchains to be more fully integrated into mainstream financial infrastructure.
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As a result, we expect valuations to rise in 2026 and the so-called “four-year cycle” (the theory that cryptocurrency market movements follow a four-year cyclical pattern) will also come to an end.We think,Bitcoin price is likely to hit an all-time high in the first half of 2026.
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Grayscale expects bipartisan cryptocurrency market structure legislation to become U.S. law in 2026.This will allow public blockchains to more deeply integrate with traditional finance, facilitate regulated trading of digital asset securities, and potentially allow startups and established companies to conduct on-chain issuances.
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The future of fiat currencies is increasingly uncertain; in contrast, we can be very confident thatThe 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026.We believe that as fiat currency risks continue to rise, digital currency systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum that offer transparent, programmatic, and ultimately scarce supply will become increasingly popular.
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We expect more crypto assets to be listed via exchange-traded products in 2026.These products are off to a strong start, but many platforms are still conducting due diligence and working to incorporate cryptocurrencies into their asset allocation processes.As this process matures, it is expected that there will be an influx of more cautious institutional capital in 2026.
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We also list the top ten crypto investment themes in 2026, reflecting the wide range of emerging application scenarios for public blockchain technology.Each topic contains relevant crypto assets.They are:
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Risks of dollar depreciation drive demand for alternative currencies
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Clarity in regulatory policies will help promote the popularization and application of digital assets
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After the introduction of the GENIUS Act, the influence of stablecoins will further expand.
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Asset tokenization is at an inflection point
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As blockchain technology moves into the mainstream, privacy solutions are imperative.
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Artificial intelligence centralization calls for blockchain solutions
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DeFi is accelerating its development, and lending business is leading the trend.
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Mainstream adoption will require next-generation infrastructure
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Focus on sustainable income
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Investors seek collateral by default
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Finally, we do not expect the following two topics to have an impact on the crypto market in 2026:
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Quantum Computing: We think research and preparation for post-quantum cryptography will continue, but the issue is unlikely to impact valuations next year.
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Digital asset treasury: Despite the intense media attention, we do not believe that digital asset treasury will become a major volatile factor in the digital asset market in 2026.
1. Digital Asset Outlook in 2026: The Dawn of the Institutional Era
Fifteen years ago, cryptocurrencies were just an experiment: there was only one asset (Bitcoin) with a market capitalization of about $1 million.Today, cryptocurrencies have grown into an emerging industry and a mid-sized alternative asset class encompassing millions of tokens with a total market capitalization of approximately $3 trillion (see Exhibit 1).Currently, more complete regulatory systems in major economies are deepening the integration of public blockchain with traditional finance and driving long-term capital inflows into the market.
Exhibit 1: Cryptocurrencies are now a mid-sized alternative asset class
From the cryptocurrency’s inception to the present, its valuations have experienced four large cyclical declines, on average once every four years (see chart 2).Three of the cyclical valuation peaks occurred 1 to 1.5 years after the Bitcoin halving event, which also occurs every four years.The current bull market has lasted for more than three years, and the most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, more than a year and a half ago.As a result, there is widespread belief among some market participants that Bitcoin prices may have peaked in October and that 2026 will be a challenging year for cryptocurrency returns.
Chart 2: Rising valuations in 2026 will mark the end of the “four-year cycle” theory
Grayscale believes the crypto asset class is in the midst of an ongoing bull run, with 2026 marking the end of the four-year cycle.We expect valuations to rise across all six major cryptocurrency sectors in 2026, andWe believe Bitcoin price could surpass previous highs in the first half of 2026.
Our optimistic attitude is based on two pillars:
First, macro demand for alternative stores of value will continue to exist.Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and can be viewed as scarce digital commodities and alternative monetary assets.Fiat currencies (and assets denominated in fiat currencies) face additional risks due to high and growing public sector debt and the resulting long-term impact on inflation (see chart 3).Scarce commodities—whether physical gold and silver or digital Bitcoin and Ethereum—can serve as a counterweight to fiat currency risk in a portfolio.We believe portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum is also likely to continue to grow as long as the risk of fiat currency devaluation continues to rise.
Chart 3: U.S. debt woes raise questions about credibility of low inflation
Second, regulatory clarity is driving institutional investment in public blockchain technology.It’s easy to forget, but until this year, the U.S. government had pending investigations and/or lawsuits against many of the cryptocurrency industry’s leading companies, including Coinbase, Ripple, Binance, Robinhood, Consensys, Uniswap, and OpenSea.Even today, exchanges and other cryptocurrency intermediaries still lack clear guidelines for the spot market.
The ship had been turning slowly.In 2023, Grayscale won a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), paving the way for spot crypto ETPs.In 2024, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETPs will be listed.In 2025, Congress passed the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, and regulators shifted their stance on cryptocurrencies, working with the industry to provide clear guidance while continuing to focus on consumer protection and financial stability.Grayscale expects that Congress will pass bipartisan cryptocurrency market structure legislation in 2026, which is likely to consolidate the position of blockchain-based finance in the U.S. capital market and promote continued investment by institutions (see chart 4).
Exhibit 4: Increased financing may be a sign of increasing institutional confidence
We think,New capital flowing into the crypto ecosystem is likely to come primarily from spot ETPs.Since the launch of Bitcoin ETP in the United States in January 2024, net inflows into global crypto ETPs have reached $87 billion (see chart 5).Despite the early success of these products, the process of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream investment portfolios is still in its infancy.Grayscale estimates that less than 0.5% of wealth under management in the United States is allocated to the crypto asset class.This number is expected to grow as more platforms complete due diligence, refine capital market assumptions and incorporate cryptocurrencies into model portfolios.In addition to fiduciary wealth management, some first movers have adopted cryptocurrency ETPs in their institutional portfolios, including Harvard Management Company and Mubadala (one of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds).We expect this list to grow significantly by 2026.
Chart 5: Continued inflows into spot cryptocurrency ETPs
As cryptocurrency prices become increasingly driven by institutional capital inflows, the nature of their price movements has also changed.In every previous bull market, Bitcoin’s price rose by at least 1,000% in a year (see chart 6).This time, the maximum annual increase in Bitcoin price in the year from March 2024 is approximately 240%.We think,This difference reflects the greater stability of institutional buying in this cycle than the tendency of retail investors to chase gains in previous cycles.Although cryptocurrency investing involves significant risks,We believe the likelihood of a deep and prolonged cyclical decline in prices is relatively low at the time of writing.Instead, we believe a more stable price rally is more likely next year, driven by institutional capital inflows.
Chart 6:Bitcoin price has not risen significantly this cycle
Favorable macro market conditions may also limit some downside risks to coin prices in 2026.The previous two cyclical peaks occurred before the Fed raised interest rates (Chart 7).In contrast, the Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue cutting interest rates next year.Kevin Hassett, who is likely to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chairman, recently said in an interview with “Face the Nation” that “the American people can look forward to President Trump choosing someone who can help them get cheaper auto loans and more convenient mortgages at low interest rates.” Overall, economic growth and the Fed’s generally supportive policies should be consistent with investors’ favorable risk appetite and the potential gains in risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Chart 7: Previous cyclical peaks have been related to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
Like every other asset class, cryptocurrency price movements are driven by a combination of fundamentals and capital flows.Commodity markets are cyclical, and cryptocurrencies may also experience cyclical declines in certain periods in the future.But we don’t think this will happen in 2026.Fundamentals remain solid: We expect macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value to persist, and clarity in the regulatory environment to drive investment in public blockchain technologies from institutional investors.Additionally, new money is still flowing into the market: crypto ETPs are likely to appear in more investment portfolios by the end of next year.In this cycle, there was no large-scale retail demand, but continued buying of cryptocurrency ETPs from various investment portfolios.With the macroeconomic environment generally supportive, we believe these conditions will drive the cryptocurrency asset class to new highs in 2026.
2. Top Ten Crypto Investment Themes in 2026
Cryptocurrency is a diverse asset class that reflects multiple application scenarios for public blockchain technology.The following section outlines Grayscale’s view on the ten most important cryptocurrency investment themes in 2026, as well as two “unimportant” themes.For each topic, we list the coins that we think are the most relevant.
Theme 1: The risk of dollar depreciation drives demand for alternative currencies
Related crypto assets: BTC, ETH, ZEC
The U.S. economy faces debt problems (see chart 3), which could ultimately undermine the dollar’s status as a store of value.Other countries face similar problems, but the U.S. dollar is the world’s dominant international currency today, so the credibility of U.S. policies is more important to potential capital flows.We believe that a small subset of digital assets can be considered viable stores of value because they are sufficiently ubiquitous, decentralized, and have limited supply growth.This includes the two largest cryptoassets by market capitalization: Bitcoin and Ethereum.Similar to physical gold, their utility stems in part from their scarcity and autonomy.
Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins and is fully programmable.For example, we can confidently predict that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026.A digital currency system with a transparent, predictable, and ultimately scarce supply is a simple idea, but it is becoming increasingly popular in today’s economy due to the tail risk of fiat currencies.Portfolio demand for alternative stores of value is also likely to continue to grow as long as the macro imbalances that create fiat currency risks continue to grow (Exhibit 8).Zcash, a smaller decentralized digital currency with privacy features, may also be suitable for investors configuring their portfolios in response to a declining dollar (see Topic 5).
Exhibit 8: Macroeconomic imbalances may drive demand for alternative stores of value.
Theme 2: Clarity of regulatory policies will help promote the popularization and application of digital assets
Related Crypto Assets: Almost All
In 2025, the United States made significant progress in cryptocurrency regulation, including passing the GENIUS Act (for stablecoins), rescinding SEC Accounting Notice No. 121 on custody, introducing common listing standards for crypto ETPs, and resolving the cryptocurrency industry’s access to traditional banking services (see Exhibit 9).Next year, we expect another major advance with the passage of the bipartisan Market Structure Act.The House of Representatives passed a version of the bill – the Clarity Act – in July – and the Senate has started the process.While there are still many details to be ironed out, overall the bill provides a traditional set of financial rules for cryptocurrency capital markets, including registration and disclosure requirements, crypto asset classification, and insider rules.
In practice, establishing a better regulatory framework for crypto-assets in the United States and other major economies would mean that regulated financial services companies could include digital assets on their balance sheets and start trading on the blockchain.This could also facilitate the formation of on-chain capital, allowing both startups and established businesses to issue regulated tokens.By further unlocking the full potential of blockchain technology, regulatory clarity should help enhance the development of the entire crypto asset class.Given the critical role that regulatory clarity is likely to play in driving the crypto asset class through 2026, we believe bipartisan differences in the legislative process in Congress should be viewed as a downside risk.
Exhibit 9: The United States has made significant progress on regulatory policy clarity in 2025
Topic 3: The GENIUS Act will promote the expansion of the influence of stablecoins
Related crypto assets: ETH, TRX, BNB, SOL, XPL, LINK
Stablecoins will usher in explosive growth in 2025: the circulating supply reached US$300 billion, and in the six months to November, the average monthly transaction volume reached US$1.1 trillion. The US Congress passed the GENIUS Act, and a large amount of institutional capital poured into the industry (Chart 10).We expect to see tangible results in 2026: stablecoins are integrated into cross-border payment services, serve as collateral on derivatives exchanges, appear on corporate balance sheets, and become an alternative to credit cards for online consumer payments.The continued growth of prediction markets may also drive new demand for stablecoins.Higher stablecoin transaction volumes will benefit the blockchains that record these transactions (such as ETH, TRX, BNB, and SOL, etc.), as well as the various supporting infrastructure (such as LINK) and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications (see topic #7).
Chart 10: Stablecoins are about to explode.
Theme 4: Asset tokenization is at a turning point
Related crypto assets: LINK, ETH, SOL, AVAX, BNB, CC
Tokenized assets are currently small: only 0.01% of the total market capitalization of global equity and bond markets (Exhibit 11).Grayscale expects asset tokenization to grow rapidly in the coming years, driven by the maturation of blockchain technology and an increasingly clear regulatory environment.We believe that it is not impossible for the scale of tokenized assets to increase by approximately 1,000 times by 2030.This growth could bring value to blockchains that handle transactions of tokenized assets, as well as various supporting applications.The current leading blockchains for tokenized assets include Ethereum (ETH), BNB Chain (BNB), and Solana (SOL), but this list may change over time.In terms of supporting applications, Chainlink (LINK) shows particularly strong competitiveness with its unique software technology suite.
Exhibit 11: Huge growth potential for tokenized assets
Theme 5: As blockchain technology moves towards the mainstream, privacy solutions are imperative
Related crypto assets: ZEC, AZTEC, RAIL
Privacy is an inherent part of the financial system: nearly everyone expects their salary, taxes, net worth, and spending habits to remain private on the public ledger.However, most blockchains are transparent by default.If public blockchains are to be more deeply integrated into the financial system, they will need stronger privacy infrastructure – something that is becoming increasingly clear as regulation drives this integration.Investors’ focus on privacy could benefit projects such as Zcash (ZEC), a decentralized digital currency similar to Bitcoin with privacy features; Zcash will appreciate significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 (see chart 12).Other major projects include Aztec, the privacy-focused Ethereum Layer 2 protocol, and Railgun, a privacy middleware for DeFi.We may also see increasing adoption of confidential transactions on leading smart contract platforms such as Ethereum (which adopts the ERC-7984 protocol) and Solana (which adopts the Confidential Transfers token extension).Better privacy tools may also require stronger identity and compliance infrastructure for DeFi.
Exhibit 12: Cryptocurrency investors pay more attention to privacy features
Theme Six: Artificial Intelligence Centralization Calls for Blockchain Solutions
Related crypto assets: TAO, IP, NEAR, WORLD
The fundamental fit between cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence is closer and clearer than ever.Artificial intelligence systems are increasingly concentrated in a few dominant companies, raising concerns about trust, bias, and ownership, and cryptocurrencies provide an underlying mechanism to directly address these risks.Decentralized artificial intelligence development platforms like Bittensor aim to reduce reliance on centralized artificial intelligence technology; verifiable personality certification systems like World can distinguish humans and agents in a world of synthetic activities; and networks like Story Protocol provide transparent and traceable intellectual property at a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify the source of digital content.Meanwhile, tools like X402 — an open, zero-fee stablecoin payment layer that supports platforms like Base and Solana — enable the low-cost, instant micropayments needed for economic interactions between agents or machines and people.
Together, these components form the early infrastructure of the “agency economy” where identity, computation, data, and payments must all be verifiable, programmable, and censorship-resistant.While the current convergence of crypto and AI is still early and unevenly developed, it still gives rise to one of the most compelling long-term use cases in the space, and protocols that build real infrastructure are poised to benefit as AI becomes increasingly decentralized, autonomous, and economically active (Exhibit 13).
Exhibit 13: Blockchain offers solutions to some of the risks posed by artificial intelligence
Theme 7: DeFi accelerates development, lending business leads the trend
Related crypto assets: AAVE, MORPHO, MAPLE, KMNO, UNI, AERO, RAY, JUP, HYPE, LINK
In 2025, driven by technological progress and favorable regulatory factors, DeFi applications will develop strongly.The growth of stablecoins and tokenized assets has been an important success story, and DeFi lending has also seen significant growth, with platforms such as Aave, Morpho and Maple Finance standing out (see chart 14).Meanwhile, decentralized perpetual futures exchanges like Hyperliquid continue to grow in open interest and daily trading volume, rivaling some of the largest centralized derivatives exchanges.Going forward, these platforms’ growing liquidity, interoperability, and correlation with real-world prices will make DeFi a reliable choice for users looking to conduct financial transactions directly on-chain.It is expected that more DeFi protocols will integrate with traditional fintech companies in the future to take advantage of their infrastructure and large user base.We expect core DeFi protocols to benefit from this, including lending platforms such as AAVE, decentralized exchanges such as UNI and HYPE, and related infrastructure such as LINK, as well as the blockchains that support most DeFi activities (such as ETH, SOL, and BASE).
Exhibit 14: DeFi continues to grow in scale and diversity
Theme 8: Mainstream adoption will require next-generation infrastructure
Related crypto assets: SUI, MON, NEAR, MEGA
New blockchains continue to push the technological frontier.However, some investors believe that more block space is not needed due to insufficient demand for existing blockchains.Solana itself has been a prime example of this criticism: a fast but poorly used chain that was initially dismissed as “excess block space” but became one of the industry’s biggest success stories in a subsequent wave of mass adoption.Not all of today’s high-performance blockchains will follow a similar trajectory, but we expect that some will.Superior technology does not guarantee widespread adoption, but the architecture of these next-generation networks makes them perfectly suited for emerging areas such as artificial intelligence micropayments, real-time game loops, high-frequency on-chain transactions, and intent-based systems.Among these projects, we expect Sui to stand out due to its technological advantages and integrated development strategy (see Exhibit 15).Other promising projects include Monad (a parallelized EVM), MegaETH (a super-fast Ethereum L2 cache), and Near (an AI-focused blockchain that has seen success with its Intents product).
Exhibit 15: Next-generation blockchains like Sui offer faster, cheaper transactions
Theme 9: Focus on sustainable income
Related crypto assets: SOL, ETH, BNB, HYPE, PUMP, TRX
Blockchains are not businesses, but they do have measurable fundamentals including users, transaction volume, fees, capital/total value locked (TVL), developers, and applications.Of these metrics, Grayscale considers transaction fees to be the most valuable fundamental metrics because they are the hardest to manipulate and the most comparable across different blockchains (they also provide the best empirical fit).Transaction fees are similar to “revenue” in traditional business finance.For blockchain applications, it may also be important to distinguish between protocol fees/revenue and “supply-side” fees/revenue.As institutional investors begin to allocate funds to the cryptocurrency space, we expect them to focus on blockchains and applications (other than Bitcoin) with high and/or growing fee income.Smart contract platforms with relatively high revenue include TRX, SOL, ETH, and BNB (Chart 16).Application layer assets with relatively high revenue include HYPE and PUMP.
Exhibit 16: Institutional investors may scrutinize fundamentals
Topic 10: Investors seek collateral by default
Related crypto assets: LDO, JTO
U.S. policymakers made two adjustments to staking-related policies in 2025 that will enable more token holders to participate: (i) the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clarified that liquidity staking activities do not constitute securities transactions; (ii) the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Treasury Department stated that investment trusts/exchange-traded products (ETPs) can pledge digital assets.These guidance on liquidity staking services may benefit Lido and Jito, the leading TVL-based liquidity staking protocols on Ethereum and Solana.More broadly, the fact that crypto ETPs are able to be staked is likely to make it the default structure for holding investment positions in Proof-of-Stake (PoS) tokens, leading to higher staking ratios and higher reward rates (Chart 17).In an environment where staking becomes more widely adopted, custodial staking via ETPs will provide a convenient way to earn rewards, while on-chain non-custodial liquidity staking has the advantage of being composable in DeFi.We expect this dual structure to continue for some time.
Exhibit 17: Proof-of-stake tokens provide native rewards
Two themes that won’t matter in 2026
We expect each of the above investment themes to contribute to the development of the cryptocurrency market in 2026.There are two hot topics that we don’t expect to have a material impact on the cryptocurrency market next year: the vulnerability of quantum computing to cryptography, and the evolution of digital asset treasuries (DATs).While these topics generate widespread discussion, we do not believe they are central to the market outlook.
If quantum computing technology continues to develop, most blockchains will eventually need to upgrade their encryption technology.In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive the private key from the public key, thereby generating a valid digital signature that can be used to pay users in cryptocurrency.As a result, Bitcoin and most other blockchains — and nearly everything else in the economy that uses cryptography — will eventually need to be upgraded to adapt to the tools of the post-quantum era.However, experts estimate that a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption will not be available until 2030 at the earliest.Quantum risk research and community responses are likely to accelerate in 2026, but we believe this topic is unlikely to have an impact on prices.
The situation is similar with DAT.Michael Saylor’s pioneering strategy of incorporating digital assets into corporate balance sheets spawned dozens of imitators in 2025.By our estimates, DAT holds 3.7% of Bitcoin, 4.6% of Ethereum, and 2.5% of SOL.Demand for these assets has declined from the peak in mid-2025: DAT, the largest market capitalization, currently has a price-to-book ratio (mNAV) of nearly 1.0 (see Exhibit 18).However, most DATs are not highly leveraged (or even not leveraged at all), so they may not be forced to liquidate assets in a market downturn.DAT Strategy, the largest by market capitalization, recently raised a U.S. dollar reserve fund to continue paying preferred stock dividends even if Bitcoin prices fall.We expect most DATs to operate similarly to closed-end funds, trading at a premium or discount to net asset value and liquidating assets less frequently.We believe that these instruments are likely to become a long-term part of the cryptocurrency investment landscape, but are unlikely to be a major source of new demand for the token or a major source of selling pressure in 2026.
Exhibit 18: DAT premiums have narrowed, but asset sales unlikely
3. Conclusion
We expect a bright future for digital assets in 2026, driven primarily by macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value and increased regulatory transparency.Next year, the integration of blockchain finance and traditional finance is expected to further increase, and institutional capital will also flow in in large quantities.Tokens with clear application scenarios, sustainable revenue streams, and access to regulated trading venues and applications are likely to gain favor from institutional investors.Investors can expect that the variety of crypto assets available through ETPs will continue to expand, and staking features will be supported wherever possible.
At the same time, regulatory clarity and institutional recognition may raise the bar for cryptocurrency projects to enter the mainstream market.For example, cryptocurrency projects may need to meet new registration and disclosure requirements to gain access to regulated exchanges.Institutional investors may also overlook cryptoassets that have no clear purpose—even those with relatively high market capitalizations.The GENIUS Act clearly distinguishes between regulated payment stablecoins (which enjoy specific rights and obligations under U.S. law) and other stablecoins (which do not enjoy the same rights).Likewise, we expect the institutional era of cryptocurrencies will create a more pronounced differentiation between those assets that have access to regulated markets and institutional capital and those that do not have the same access.Cryptocurrency is entering a new era, and not all coins can successfully transition from the old era to the new.
