jakiro
Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Compiled by: BitChain Vision
The interesting thing about this industry is that a lot of people you meet believe in everything:
“Ethereum is better than Solana and it will eventually dominate.”
“Solana is stronger than Ethereum and will definitely crush its opponents in the long run.”
“Only Bitcoin is the key.”
I always find this incredible.
I have been working full-time in the cryptocurrency industry for eight years. I have about 140 colleagues around me who exchange ideas with me. I also often communicate with top venture capitalists, project founders, researchers and foundations, and I have a deep understanding of these network ecosystems.
But even so, I still can’t tell you with full confidence which public chain will ultimately win, or how exactly things will develop.
At the current stage of cryptocurrency development, I believe the end result is unpredictable.Regulatory policies, project execution, the macroeconomic environment, the decisions of a few key players, luck, and hundreds of other variables all influence the final outcome..Accurately predicting all of these factors requires supernatural foresight.
Those who claim to be absolutely certain, I think, are actually deceiving themselves.
So, how to invest?
Faced with this uncertainty, my strategy is simple:Buy the entire market.
Specifically, I willInvest in market cap-weighted cryptocurrency index funds.
Why?Because my safest bet in cryptocurrency is:Cryptocurrencies in ten years will be far more important than they are today.
My point is:The importance of stablecoins will further increase, tokenization will play a greater role, and Bitcoin’s influence will continue to grow..In addition, I think there will be more than a dozen major application scenarios emerging:Prediction markets, decentralized finance (DeFi), privacy technology, digital identity, new forms of equity, and more.
In my opinion, it is entirely possible that the entire cryptocurrency market will easily grow 10 to 20 times in the next ten years.
Don’t believe it?A few days ago, U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said in an interview with Fox Business Channel that he expects all U.S. stock markets to migrate to the chain “within the next few years.”That’s $68 trillion in equity assets—and today, tokenized shares only account for about $670 million.This means that the scale will change by about 100,000 times.
I want to be part of the investment in this change.
But the point is: I don’t want to risk betting on the wrong public chain.Just imagine, you accurately predicted a market that will grow 100,000 times, but you underperformed the market because you chose the wrong investment target – this is undoubtedly a pity.
Therefore, I keep cryptocurrency index funds as the core of my portfolio and only make individual bets on the fringe.This way, I can sleep better with relevant exposure to potential winners no matter how the cryptocurrency industry evolves.
Cryptocurrency index funds will be a hot trend in 2026.As the market becomes increasingly complex and application scenarios continue to increase, although it is not suitable for everyone, it is an excellent starting point for many people (including myself).
