jakiro
The current rebound in the encryption market is gradually unfolding, but its internal driving logic has clearly differentiated.Bitcoin is still continuing its rebound trend, but the overall trend is still operating within the bear market framework; at the same time, clues of more structural changes in the market are gradually pointing to Ethereum.Currently, the derivatives positions of BTC and ETH have simultaneously fallen to abnormally low levels, the position structure has been reset, and the market’s price sensitivity to new exposures has increased significantly.Against this background, the recently completed network upgrade of Ethereum has had a substantial impact on its underlying economic structure, but the relevant changes have not yet been fully priced by the market, making it a more noteworthy transaction thread at this stage.
The position structure has been reset and the market is more sensitive to new funds.
From the perspective of position structure, whether it is Bitcoin or Ethereum, the current open interest level of futures is in the historically low range.This means that the previously accumulated long and short exposures have been significantly reduced, and the overall leverage structure of the market has been compressed.In a similar position reset environment, once new directional funds begin to enter, price fluctuations are often quickly amplified.Earlier this year, Ethereum triggered a roughly 38% rally in a short period of time against the backdrop of similar positioning.This familiar structure is currently re-emerging, providing the necessary conditions for a phased rebound.
The upgrade effect gradually appears, and Ethereum may perform better than Bitcoin in the short term.
Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum’s recently completed network upgrade has directly improved its operating efficiency, cost structure, and L1 and L2 scalability, further strengthening its economic attributes as Gas, mortgage assets, and DeFi core assets.Historical experience shows that improvements in network efficiency tend to lead to higher levels of on-chain activity, which ultimately translates into structural demand for ETH.After the last round of upgrades, not only did the price of ETH rise significantly, but its futures open interest also increased rapidly from about $8 billion to $16 billion.Currently, although treasury-type buying by Ethereum-related companies is more sporadic than before, 35.8% of transactions in the options market still come from call option buying, indicating that some traders have begun to re-arrange their plans in the upward direction.Judging from the price path, ETH still has room to advance towards the 3,300–3,500 range, making participating in the rebound through a bullish spread strategy an option with a clearer boundary between risk and return.
Overall, this rebound should be viewed as a tactical opportunity in a bear market environment rather than a trend reversal.As long as the price of Bitcoin is still running below the 21-week moving average, its rising attributes will still belong to rebound logic rather than a structural bull market; relatively speaking, the higher upward elasticity is still concentrated on the Ethereum side.Position reset plus upgrade variables provide ETH with a better short-term risk-return structure, but this window relies on grasping the transaction level rather than long-term trend judgment.For investors, the key at this stage is to seize the tactical opportunities brought about by structural improvements rather than betting in advance that a new cycle has begun.
