jakiro
The crypto market began to rebound rapidly yesterday evening. Bitcoin returned to US$93,000, once touching US$93,660, erasing the previous decline on December 1, and rising by more than 7% in 24 hours; Ethereum briefly exceeded US$3,000, once touching US$3,070, and rising by more than 10% in 24 hours.Data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has been liquidated to US$435 million, with long positions liquidated at US$67.9729 million, short orders liquidated at US$367 million, and short orders liquidated mainly.
Bitcoin just fell to around US$83,000 on December 1, and quickly rebounded to regain the “lost ground” in just 24 hours., the encryption market fluctuated so much in just one day, what happened?Have the various positive factors expected in December begun to affect the trend of cryptocurrency? Can the market regain confidence in the rebound?
1. The crypto market experienced “mixed joys and sorrows” in one day and quickly rebounded to regain lost ground.
The crypto market began to rebound rapidly yesterday evening. Bitcoin returned to US$93,000 and briefly touched US$93,660, erasing the previous decline on December 1, with a 24-hour increase of more than 7%. Ethereum followed suit, briefly exceeding US$3,000, and once touching US$3,070, returning to the level before the decline on December 1, with a 24-hour increase of more than 10%.Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has been liquidated to US$435 million, with long orders liquidated at US$67.9729 million, short orders liquidated at US$367 million, and short orders liquidated mainly.Among them, the liquidation of BTC was US$215 million and the liquidation of ETH was US$89.9778 million.More than 115,000 people across the entire network were liquidated. The largest single liquidation order occurred in Bybit-BTCUSD, worth US$10 million.
Just one day ago, the crypto market experienced a “dive”, with Bitcoin falling to the level of $83,000, erasing its previous decline in a short period of time.It is foreseeable that major positive factors expected in December, such as 1Vanguard Group, a US$0 trillion asset management company, allows clients to trade crypto ETFs, rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, potential “dovish” chairman successors, and the end of quantitative tightening, etc., have begun to exert an impact on the market, supporting the rapid rebound of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
two, asset management giant Vanguard Group opens Bitcoin ETF to stimulate market rebound
Vanguard Group on Tuesday began allowing clients to trade cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds on its brokerage platform.This is the first time that this asset management giant, known for its conservative investment philosophy, has opened cryptocurrency investment channels to its 8 million self-operated brokerage customers.The company is one of the world’s largest distributors of index funds,With assets under management reaching approximately US$10 trillion and customers exceeding 50 million, it is the second largest asset management giant in the world., second only to BlackRock.
Vanguard Group says it will support most regulatory-compliant cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds, which is supported in a similar way to gold and other niche asset classes.The company also stated that it currently has no plans to launch its own cryptocurrency products.Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out on social media that this is a typical “vanguard effect.” On the first trading day after the pioneer shift, Bitcoin immediately rose sharply during the opening of U.S. stocks. BlackRock’s IBIT’s trading volume exceeded $1 billion within 30 minutes of the opening, showing that even conservative investors want to “add some excitement” to their investment portfolios.
Vanguard has previously refused to get involved in the cryptocurrency space, believing that digital assets are too speculative and volatile and inconsistent with its core philosophy of long-term balanced investment portfolios.Today’s shift reflects continued retail and institutional demand pressures, as well as concerns about missing out on opportunities in fast-growing markets.While BlackRock is enjoying great success with its Bitcoin ETF, Vanguard’s loosening of this emerging asset class will have a profound impact on future capital flows.
3. Trump strongly hinted that “dovish” Hassett would take over the Fed
Recently,The possibility that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett will soon take over the Federal Reserve continues to increase.The Wall Street Journal reported that sources revealed that although the selection of Fed chairman is still ongoing, Trump has almost locked in Hassett.Hassett was the clear leader among the final five candidates due to his high loyalty to Trump and market recognition.Trump said at a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday that he would announce his choice to succeed Powell as Fed chairman “early next year.”Trump also mentioned at the meeting that Treasury Secretary Bessent, who led the selection process, did not want to serve as Fed chairman.In addition, Trump said at a White House event later on Tuesday: “I guess a potential Fed chairman is here. Can I say? Potential. He is a respected man, that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin.” This remark was interpreted by the market as Trump personally hinting that Hassett is the top candidate to take over as Fed chairman.Polymarket data shows that Hassett’s probability of being elected chairman of the Federal Reserve has risen to 86%.
Trump has always favored candidates who support low interest rates, and Hassett and other candidates are vocal advocates of low interest rates.Despite the lack of clear public statements, Hassett is widely considered a supporter of cryptocurrencies.In June, he disclosed that he held at least $1 million in Coinbase shares and was paid at least $50,001 for his role on the exchange’s academic and regulatory advisory committees, giving him unusually close ties to the cryptocurrency industry that are rare for a potential Fed chair.
If the “dovish” candidate Hassett successfully takes over the Fed, it will have a major impact on the Fed’s subsequent interest rate policy direction., may indirectly stimulate the strength of the encryption market.
4. The Fed’s interest rate cut in December continues to heat up, and we will see the results next week
With Kevin Hassett and other potential “dovish” next chairmen of the Federal Reserve taking the stage, Trump once again stated that the chairman of the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.He reiterated his criticism of Powell and said that even JPMorgan CEO Dimon said Powell should lower interest rates.CME’s “FedWatch” data shows that,The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December rises to 89.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 10.8%.The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year is 66.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 7.7%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts by 50 basis points is 25.7%.In addition,Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week has risen to 93%, the total trading volume of the prediction pool has exceeded 223 million US dollars.
Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December continue to rise, and the market has almost concluded that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which will be announced next week.This may also stimulate asset markets to continue to strengthen before the final resolution is implemented.
5. The Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening and injects market liquidity
The Federal Reserve has officially ended its 3.5-year quantitative tightening (QT) policy on December 1, that is, stopping the balance sheet reduction process (referred to as “balance sheet reduction”), and at the same time$13.5 billion was injected into the banking system through overnight repurchase operations.According to Federal Reserve economic data, this scale is the second largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 epidemic, even surpassing the peak during the “Internet Bubble” period.Since 2022, the Fed has withdrawn more than $2 trillion from the market, and its balance sheet is now down to about $6.55 trillion.Some analysts pointed out that stopping the “shrinking” of the balance sheet marks a turning point in the Fed’s policy: the end of the aggressive tightening policy after the COVID-19 epidemic.The move is intended to address liquidity risks and boost the U.S. economy.
As the Federal Reserve officially stops shrinking its balance sheet this month and liquidity begins to ease, Bitcoin and risk assets could receive a new liquidity hit.
6. Musk said the debt crisis is good for Bitcoin and boosts market sentiment
Musk said in a recent interview,The United States is hurtling toward a “debt crisis” that could trigger wild swings in Bitcoin prices.Against this backdrop, traders are bracing for possible major policy changes from the Federal Reserve in December.Musk predicts that in the future “money as a concept will cease to exist” and energy will become the only “real currency.”Musk said: “This is why I say Bitcoin is based on energy. After all, you cannot create energy through legislation.” He also mentioned that “the United States is significantly increasing the money supply through a deficit of about $2 trillion.”
Musk helped Trump return to the White House by warning about the country’s rising debt, which now exceeds $38 trillion, but his relationship with Trump soured after Trump failed to rein in government spending.Although Musk’s support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is no longer as strong as it was during the COVID-19 epidemic, he continues to provide support for Bitcoin and Dogecoin.After leaving the White House, Musk said that the “American Party” he advocated would prefer Bitcoin to the U.S. dollar, calling the U.S. dollar and other non-asset-backed currencies “hopeless.”
Musk has a long history of supporting cryptocurrencies, and every statement he makes will more or less stimulate the strength of the crypto market, and this time is no exception.
7. Interpretation of market trends
Have the above series of positive factors begun to affect the market trends of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies?Has the panic been alleviated somewhat?Can investors regain confidence in the rebound?Let’s take a look at the key interpretations of the market.
1. Grayscale (GrayscaleResearch) representation, Bitcoin is expected to hit a new all-time high in 2026.In a report released on Monday, Grayscale Capital noted that Bitcoin does not necessarily follow the so-called “four-year cycle” – the market generally believes that Bitcoin prices will peak every four years (in sync with its halving cycle) and then undergo significant corrections.Grayscale pointed out that judging from historical data, although long-term investors can obtain returns by holding assets amid fluctuations, in the process, they often need to “endure sometimes challenging retracements.”The agency added that during bull markets, corrections of 25% and above are very common, and such corrections do not necessarily mean the beginning of a long-term downward trend.
2. Coinbase Institutional representation, with the end of quantitative tightening (QT) and the Fed re-entering the bond market, the pressure to withdraw funds from the market may have passed.This is generally positive for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.In the current environment, the agency believes that high-probability opportunities favor breakout trades rather than knife-catching.
3. Glassnode and Fasanara DigitalThe jointly released “Fourth Quarter Digital Asset Report” stated that the scale of new Bitcoin funds in Q4 reached US$732 billion, and the one-year volatility has been nearly halved.Currently, market transactions are becoming more stable, the scale continues to expand, and institutional participation has increased significantly.
4. 4E Observation issued a statement saying, Bitcoin quickly recovered all its previous losses caused by macro shocks.This strong rebound was mainly driven by two major factors: First, Japan’s 10-year government bond auction became the key to the stabilization of global risk assets.Secondly, the market is widely betting that Hassett has been “internally determined” to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.Although the outlook for growth and inflation in 2026 remains uncertain, the “dovish” short-term policy bias has boosted U.S. stocks and interest rate cut expectations, bringing rebound momentum to BTC.The rapid reversal of macro policy expectations and the fluctuation of the government bond market are still the key variables that dominate the short-term market.The strength of BTC’s recovery after completing this round of correction still depends on policy signals, liquidity environment and changes in the behavior of long-term currency holders.It is recommended to maintain a sense of rhythm and risk boundaries.
5. BitMine Chairman and CEO Tom LeeStay positive about cryptocurrencies and the stock market.He told CNBC in an interview that the Fed will bring the biggest positive push in the coming weeks.”I think the biggest positive that’s going to come out in the next few weeks is from the Fed. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in December and the Fed has ended quantitative tightening. That has been a pretty big tailwind for market liquidity,” Lee said. As liquidity is no longer being drained out of the system, the flow of money into risk assets may start to accelerate.Lee is particularly confident about Bitcoin.He believes that rising liquidity has historically been associated with stronger performance in “risk-on” assets.
6. Yi Lihua, founder of LiquidCapital (formerly LDCapital)Posted on social media: Although BTC returned to $93,000, BCH hit a recent high, and WLFI also stabilized after a sharp rise, ETH and the broader market still lag behind the stock market and various favorable environments. With the confirmation of a new crypto-friendly chairman (the Federal Reserve) after the SEC chairman, the 60-day crypto bear market may be over.These 60 days are 1011, which has led to a serious decline in the liquidity of the entire industry, as well as the four-year cycle resonance and the superposition of Japan’s interest rate hikes and government shutdowns. However, these negative effects have been digested at present. With the dual benefits of interest rate cut expectations and encryption policies, we continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market. Investment always requires not only wisdom but also patience.
7. AllianceDAO co-founder QwQiaoThe article stated that if L1 tokens have the potential to become a non-sovereign store of value, this shows that its price has not been seriously overvalued and can also be used as an effective hedging tool for Bitcoin.He still believes that Bitcoin is undoubtedly the best non-sovereign currency and the asset most likely to replace gold.
