jakiro
On November 19, Dan Bin’s most recent public speech was posted online.
In this speech, Dan Bin specifically mentioned gold, Bitcoin and Tesla.
Regarding gold, Dan Bin mentioned (to the effect):
If we look at the long-term historical cycle, non-interest-bearing assets such as gold cannot outperform interest-bearing assets (such as stocks), and a time return chart is used to compare the return curves of the two.
Seeing this statement, I remembered what Buffett said in his shareholder Q&A (to the general effect):
He took a famous European painting as an example and mentioned that if an investor bought this famous painting in 19XX and put it today, how much would it be worth? At the same time, another investor used the money to invest in a U.S. stock index fund at that time, and what would be the approximate value of this fund today.Comparing the two phases, the latter’s rate of return is much higher than that of the former.
Therefore, Buffett’s conclusion is also: from an investment perspective, for non-interest-bearing assets, the long-term return on investment is not as good as that of interest-bearing assets.
This conclusion also applies to gold.
Next, Dan Bin mentioned Bitcoin and Tesla, and his next opinion also triggered my summary and review of some previous opinions.
His point of view (in general) is:
Even if Bitcoin can rise to $1 million in the future, he believes that compared to Tesla, the latter can bring huge value and potential.Therefore, in the long run, the return rate of the latter will be higher than that of the former.
His logical starting point is also: Bitcoin does not earn interest, while Tesla earns interest and can generate huge returns.
In my opinion, one point of his view is controversial: whether Tesla can really realize Musk’s vision in the future and realize the business scenario he envisions.
But I don’t think this controversial point is important. It is not the core of this comparison.
The core of this comparison is that Bitcoin, a non-interest-bearing asset, has limited room for future growth. It is not as good as interest-bearing assets——This inspired me to review and summarize some of my past opinions.
As a non-interest-bearing asset, Bitcoin’s investment return is not as good as that of interest-bearing assets. I now increasingly agree with the views of some investors in traditional fields, including Dan Bin.
But there are differences between me and them. The biggest difference is:
When they try to find an interest-bearing asset with more upside than Bitcoin, their first and seemingly only targets are stocks in the traditional space.
But I am different. My primary goal will be to target assets in the crypto ecosystem (of course I will also focus on stocks in traditional fields).
In an article very early (probably 2022 or 2023?), I shared a point of view for the first time:
I believe that the future market value of Ethereum will exceed that of Bitcoin. The fundamental reason is that as an application platform, Ethereum can have sustained and healthy (handling fee) income, and can return the income to currency holders through destruction.
But at that time, this view actually lacked some data and technical support. The key ones were:
(At that time) Ethereum’s throughput was still too small. How could its performance support a huge application ecosystem?
(Based on the technical architecture at the time) When the price of Ethereum is too high, even if a large number of applications can run on it, such high handling fees will definitely hinder the promotion of applications. In this case, how to establish a huge application ecosystem?
(Based on the technical architecture at the time) If we simply improve the performance of Ethereum, will we seriously lose decentralization?How to improve Ethereum’s performance if it wants to remain decentralized?
Now looking at the above key issues, we can say: After these years of efforts, especially the efforts of the Ethereum core development team to speed up this year, these problems have basically found relatively mature and practical solutions:
Based on the second-layer extension, zero-knowledge proof and EIL solution, Ethereum can continue to significantly improve the performance of the entire ecosystem (L1+L2) and continue to reduce the cost of the application layer at a lower cost while maintaining decentralization:
– Handling fees will no longer be an obstacle to application promotion;
– The huge ecosystem can continue to expand based on performance improvements and cost reductions;
– Decentralization is not compromised by increased performance.
Combined with the current development status of Ethereum and the views that I agree with mentioned by Dan Bin in this speech,
– I now believe even more that the market value of Ethereum will exceed that of Bitcoin in the future;
– And I believe that in the future, in the public chain that can support smart contracts, Ethereum is very likely to generate greater investment returns than Bitcoin.
