jakiro
Shaw, Bitcoin Vision
In the early morning of November 27, the crypto market turned around after experiencing a downturn in recent weeks. Bitcoin rebounded rapidly, briefly exceeding US$91,500, once touching US$91,950, and rising by more than 4% in 24 hours; Ethereum returned to the US$3,000 mark, briefly touching US$3,071.37, and rising by more than 3.5% in 24 hours.Data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has been liquidated to US$323 million, including US$77.0831 million in long orders and US$246 million in short orders.
The market direction has changed recently.The crypto market has temporarily halted its decline due to the combined effects of factors such as the macro environment and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve..This riseCan it indicate that the market has bottomed out and can it continue??
1. The crypto market has stopped declining and rebounded, and panic has eased slightly.
In the early hours of this morning, the crypto market turned around after experiencing a downturn in recent weeks. Bitcoin rebounded rapidly, briefly exceeding US$91,500, once touching US$91,950, and rising by more than 4% in 24 hours; Ethereum returned to the US$3,000 mark, briefly touching US$3,071.37, and rising by more than 3.5% in 24 hours.
Coinglass data shows that the entire network liquidated $323 million in the past 24 hours, including $77.0831 million in long orders, $246 million in short orders, $133 million in BTC, $52.3725 million in ETH, and $16.2007 million in SOL.In the past 24 hours, a total of 112,363 people on the entire network were liquidated. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Hyperliquid-BTC-USD, worth US$14.5787 million.
Cryptocurrencies have continued to slump recently, and this apparent rebound has also given the market a breather, easing the deepening panic to a certain extent.Factors such as improving macroeconomics, rising expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and ETF funding may be the main driving factors for this cryptocurrency rebound.
2. Improvement in macroeconomic data stimulates major asset markets
The latest data shows thatThe number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 216,000, compared with the estimate of 225,000, and the previous value of 220,000, the lowest level since mid-April., significantly boosting investor confidence.While the PPI report showed wholesale prices rising slightly due to higher energy and food costs, the increase in core PPI (2.6%) was the smallest increase since July 2024.
A number of recent macroeconomic data in the United States have performed reasonably well, and retail stocks related to Thanksgiving holiday consumption have been boosted.Optimism supported continued gains in technology and small-cap stocks.The S&P and Nasdaq hit two-week highs.Dell closed up nearly 6%.The NVIDIA chain rebounded, with NVIDIA rising by more than 1% and Coreweave rising by more than 4%; Google fell by 1%.
The improvement in macroeconomic data has stimulated a recovery in investor confidence in the market, and the rise in major assets such as U.S. stocks has also affected the rebound of the road encryption market.
3. The Fed’s direction has changed, and interest rate cut expectations have risen again.
The latest Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve shows that U.S. economic activity has remained basically unchanged in recent weeks., except for high-end consumer groups, overall consumer spending has further declined.The Beige Book states,The U.S. job market weakened slightly, and price levels maintained a moderate increase..The Federal Reserve stated in the report: “The overall economic outlook remains stable, with some surveyed companies warning of the risk of an economic slowdown in the coming months, and the manufacturing industry showing cautious optimism.” Due to the interruption of the collection of key economic data due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history that lasted until November 12, field surveys reflecting the actual conditions of companies and consumers have attracted much attention in recent months.Fed officials will not have complete labor market and inflation data for October-November before their December policy meeting.
After the report is released,JPMorgan economists change forecasts, believe Fed will start cutting interest rates in December, which reversed the bank’s judgment a week ago that policymakers would delay cutting interest rates until January next year.According to the J.P. Morgan research team,Statements by several heavyweight Fed officials, notably New York Fed President Williams, in favor of a recent interest rate cut have prompted them to reassess the situation.JPMorgan Chase currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points in December and January next year.
CME “Fed Watch” data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%.The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year is 66.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 22.6%.In addition, Polymarket data shows that “the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 83%” and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has dropped to 16%. The transaction volume of this forecast event has reached 173 million US dollars.
Recent Federal Reserve reports and statements from many officials have promptedMarket expectations for an interest rate cut in December continue to rise, and investors have regained confidence in the return of liquidity to the risk asset market.
4. ETF capital flows have recovered, and new currency ETFs have been launched.
Trader T monitoring data shows that,U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF sees net inflows for two consecutive days, with a cumulative inflow of US$149 million;U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw net inflows for two consecutive days, with a cumulative inflow of US$139 million.In addition,Many institutions have launched related ETFs for other mainstream currencies..Grayscale now launches XRP and Dogecoin ETFs.Bitwise officially launched the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol BWOW.Franklin Templeton, VanEck, etc. have also applied to launch new ETF products.
The temporary resumption of ETF inflows, as well as the launch of related crypto-asset ETFs by other institutions, indicate thatInstitutional investor funds have not completely withdrawn and will still enter the market after readjustment.
5. Market Analysis and Interpretation
Can the cryptocurrency’s rebound indicate that the market has bottomed out, has the deep adjustment come to an end, and can the upward trend continue?Let’s take a look at some recent market analysis and interpretations.
1. 4E Lab observation representation, the return of ancient giant whales, the relaxation of ETF derivatives, the trend of regulatory structuring and continued institutional buying, together constitute a moderate bullish signal.Bitcoin’s “expected difference” has shifted from extreme optimism to rational optimism, while Ethereum is gaining renewed attention from deep players on the chain.The funding and regulatory environment have improved simultaneously, and the market has entered a three-factor resonance stage of “warm policies, stable funding, and rising sentiment.”
2. Matrixport publishes charts saying, “According to the implicit pricing of federal funds futures, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on December 10 has risen to 84%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year has also increased to 65%. Under such expectations of the interest rate path, even if an interest rate cut is implemented in December, the overall easing intensity of monetary policy will still be limited.Compared with Bitcoin, gold has a higher correlation with the U.S. fiscal deficit and the pace of Treasury bond issuance, and is more direct in hedging expectations for fiscal expansion and interest rate cuts.Bitcoin is more dependent on the entry of real incremental funds, and the current incremental liquidity has not yet been significantly released.In this environment, the trend divergence between gold and Bitcoin is likely to continue in the short term.”
3. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said, still firmly believes that Bitcoin can return to $100,000 by the end of the year, but there will be greater selling pressure by then.Because the “1011” plunge has a medium-term psychological impact on the market.At the same time, Novogratz said that with the clarity of encryption policies and the participation of traditional financial giants, the market will be deeply differentiated in the future, and tokens that can provide value will be favored.
4. Bitwise consultant Jeff Park believes that, Bitcoin’s past four-year halving cycle has ended and has now been replaced by a two-year cycle. This new cycle is driven by the economic behavior of institutional fund managers and ETF capital flows.
5. CryptoQuant analyst Abramchart pointed out, the market has just completed a deep “leverage cleanup”, and the total amount of open interest plummeted from US$45 billion to US$28 billion, the largest decline in this cycle.This is not a bear market signal, but more like a major market shake-up, clearing out over-inflated speculative positions and accumulating healthier momentum for subsequent increases.
6. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee believes, Bitcoin is likely to regain its October all-time high of $125,100 before the end of the year.”I think it’s still very possible for Bitcoin to reach over $100,000 before the end of the year, and maybe even hit a new high,” Lee said in an interview on Wednesday.
7. Wintermute trading strategist Jasper De Maere pointed out, the options market shows that traders generally expect Bitcoin to fluctuate in the range of 85,000-90,000 US dollars, betting that the market will maintain the status quo rather than experience a breakthrough trend.Whether this round of rebound can truly be transformed into a sustainable rise ultimately depends on whether macroeconomic policies and funds can form sustained and strong support.
8. Delphi Digital analyst issued an analysisBTC is currently forming a bullish and bearish structure.The bullish case would be to view the current move as an ABC retracement, which would need to be completed effectively and above $103,500 to be confirmed.The bearish scenario is that the current rally forms a lower high anywhere below $103,500, which would trigger the next leg lower to complete a full 5-wave down pulse before a larger sustained rally ensues.
9. Yi Lihua, founder of LiquidCapital (formerly LDCapital)The article stated: ETH has returned to 3000, the extreme panic has passed, and we continue to be optimistic about the subsequent market trend.
