jakiro
Author: K2 Kai; Source: X, @kaikaibtc
In the past few months, I have always seen some questions: “Why does the current market look so awkward? There are constant benefits, but the market is like being suppressed by a ghost.”
If you only focus on the K-line, you will not understand what is happening now.I have been reviewing this valuable macro analysis in the past few days. After reading it, I understand that this is not a “market fluctuation” at all, nor is it a simple “long-short game.”
This is the largest “tectonic movement” in the global monetary system since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
In order to let everyone understand this fight between gods, I broke down the complicated financial jargon.Talk about the three levels of war that are happening.
The first level of the game: the breakup of two “dollars”
We used to think that the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Treasury (Treasury) and Wall Street banks (such as JPMorgan Chase & Co.) wear the same pants.But today, that alliance fell apart.
The United States is now split into two camps:
The old order (old school): with the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan at its core.
Benefit point: They live on debt and collect tolls as “dollar intermediaries”.They want the dollar to remain a debt instrument and all money has to go through the banking system.
New Order (Reformist): Centered on the U.S. Treasury Department (Knowing Team) and stablecoins/Bitcoin.
Benefit point: They realized that U.S. bonds could no longer be sold and had to change their approach.They want to use stablecoins (digital dollars) to bypass banks and directly transfuse blood to the world, and use Bitcoin as a hard asset to back the fragile U.S. dollar.
In short, the old forces want to retain the privileges of banks, and the new forces want to use Crypto to reshape the hegemony of the US dollar.This is why you see so much schizophrenia on the policy side.
The second level of the game: JPMorgan Chase’s “Patriotic War”
An amazing detail:JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is going crazy short MicroStrategy ($MSTR).
Why?Because MSTR is not an ordinary software company, it is a “loophole”.
The gameplay of MSTR is: borrow legal currency (debt) – buy Bitcoin (hard assets).It continuously converts the legal currency that Wall Street is proud of into Bitcoin.
For traditional banks like JPMorgan Chase, this is fatal.
If everyone uses stablecoins for settlement and Bitcoin as reserves in the future, who will need commercial banks?Who still keeps money in JPM?
Therefore, JPM’s recent “custodial delay” and joint institutional short selling are not at all to make money, but to “plug loopholes.”They are maintaining old financial defenses in a battle for survival.
The third level of the game: the “darkest moment” of the national team
This is the most counter-intuitive and confusing part:Since the Ministry of Finance/King Wang team is optimistic about Bitcoin, why not just pull the market?
What would happen if the U.S. government directly announced tomorrow: “We are going to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve”?
Bitcoin will instantly reach 200,000, 500,000 or even 1 million US dollars (Gamma Squeeze).
This is a good thing for retail investors, but it is a disaster for the national team that has not yet established a position.The cost is too high!
So, the current script is:
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The old forces (JPM) are desperately trying to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble.
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The new power (the Ministry of Finance) is acquiescing to this suppression.
Why acquiesce?Because they are taking advantage of their opponents’ suppression to conduct “stealth accumulation.”
Waiting——
Wait until 2025 to control the voting rights of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; wait for the “conversion bridge” such as MSTR to be stable enough; wait for enough low-price chips in hand.
This explains why the currency price is “constipated” despite frequent good news: this is the main force at the national level controlling the market and washing people.
The time window left for us: 2025-2028
Finally, I mentioned that the timeline is very tight.
If the Wang team cannot complete the reconstruction of the monetary system during this term (before 2028), that is, from “debt-driven” to “asset-driven (BTC/gold)”, then the US dollar’s hegemony may really collapse.
Therefore, the next three years will not be a simple ups and downs;It is a life-and-death political and financial battle.
After understanding the above, you should understand the current strategy:
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Don’t be scared away by that “weird plunge”.Every deep drop now is probably a splash from a fight between gods, or an attempt to wash away unsteady chips.
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MSTR is not just a stock, it is a weathervane.It is the bridge from old finance to the new world. As long as it does not collapse, the logic will still exist.
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This is a “civilization-level” transition period.We are experiencing the biggest change since the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
In this battle, I don’t know who the big guys on both sides will lose and who will win.But I think the person holding Bitcoin in his hand is the only winner in this war.
