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Author: Anthony Pompliano, founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management
Bitcoin prices have plunged about 30% from an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6.Bitcoin price growth has fallen into negative territory this year, with gains of less than 1% in the past 12 months.As expected, Bitcoin holders have been very disappointed with the asset’s performance.
The public sentiment on the Internet is almost the most negative I can remember.But anecdotes on the Internet can be misleading.Platforms like Reddit or X may just be echo chambers.So, what exactly does the data tell us?
The following five charts explain what’s going on.
1. The last time Bitcoin was at this price, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower than it is now.
First, data from Zerohedge shows that “the last time Bitcoin was at this price, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower than it is now.”
This data point seriously contradicts previous expectations.Everyone, including me, expects Bitcoin to close the gap between its price and global liquidity.Now that that’s not happening, many are questioning whether the market has fundamentally changed as Wall Street begins to embrace the asset.
Whatever the reason, there is no doubt that Bitcoin has fallen by 30% in the past month and a half.
2. This is the “third 30% correction” in Bitcoin’s current cycle
James van Straten explained that this is the “third 30% correction” in Bitcoin’s current cycle.With each correction, the time from peak to trough is shortened, which accelerates the spread of market panic.
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August 2024 (yen arbitrage): 147 days
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April 2025: (tariff) 77 days
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November 2025: 42 days
3. This callback has now entered the oversold area.
Coin Bureau data shows that “Bitcoin’s daily RSI indicator has fallen to 26, the lowest level since February, indicating that Bitcoin has entered the oversold zone.”
4. 95% of short-term holders are losing money
Quinten Francois pointed out that a similar dynamic occurs in the supply of profits and losses to short-term holders.We see that over 95% of all tokens purchased in the last 155 days are currently at a loss.
This is obviously a way to quickly trigger market panic and dampen market sentiment.But the market won’t stay depressed forever.Eventually, the price of an asset will drop low enough to attract investors again.Maybe the price of Bitcoin will drop to $90,000 per coin, maybe lower.I don’t know the exact level at which prices will continue to recover.
5. Bitcoin whales actively buy Bitcoin
However, Bitwise’s André Dragosch said that Bitcoin whales (people who own more than 1,000 Bitcoins) suddenly started actively buying Bitcoin at current price levels.
As a result, Bitcoin prices plummeted despite a surge in global liquidity.Bitcoin is now severely oversold, which has tempted Bitcoin whales to start buying again.
The fear and greed index remains below 20.
It is this volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that has shaped the experiences of Bitcoin holders over the years.
Those who can remain calm when everyone goes crazy have historically done well.However, this is easier said than done.
