jakiro
作者：Jake，Messari分析师；翻译：xz@比特链视界
After the heat caused by the release of the Ethereum Foundation’s Kohaku Wallet SDK subsided, I conducted some research and thinking on RAIL, which is summarized as follows:
(1) In the past two weeks, RAIL has been oscillating within the channel from $2.00 to $3.20.I currently hold a heavy position in RAIL, with an average cost of about $1.50.If the price breaks below the support level, I will start adding to my position.If you have not entered the market yet, the price close to the lower edge of the channel is more attractive.
(2) The core logic has not changed, only the market has changed.Following the liquidation event on October 10, RAIL plummeted from approximately $5.00 to $2.20.Since then, its price trend has always been highly synchronized with BTC’s volatile sideways trend.
(3) According to the quick calculation model of Messari Enterprise Research Manager AJC：若以太坊上1%的ETH及稳定币流经RAILGUN隐私集合，将产生约8240万美元的年化收入。This calculation is based on a revenue capture rate of 1.25% (historical annualized capture rate is 4-10% of TVL) and a potential market penetration rate of 1.0% (the current market size is US$450-500 billion in ETH and approximately US$175 billion in stablecoins).At $2.30, its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $132 million, implying base-case annual revenue equivalent to 62% of its total FDV.Even if pessimistic assumptions are adopted (0.1% market penetration rate + 1.25% revenue capture rate), it can still generate annual revenue of US$8.2 million, accounting for 6.2% of the total FDV (while a 10% market penetration rate under the bull market scenario will bring annualized revenue of US$823 million, equivalent to 624% of FDV).Furthermore, this is only one dimension of evaluating RAIL.Comparing similar valuations (Zcash-FDV$6.46 billion/Monero-FDV$5.95 billion), RAIL’s current FDV is less than 3% of its competitors (taking into account Railgun’s quantifiable cash flow potential, a reasonable valuation should be close to 10-15% of its competitors).Not to mention that ZEC’s continued strong performance will further boost RAIL’s bullish logic on the privacy track.
(4) Potential catalyst: Usage continues to rise.Railgun processed $1.6 billion in privacy transactions this year, just under half of the protocol’s total transaction volume from 2021 ($4 billion).
Railgun plans to demonstrate its wallet technology at the Devconnect Argentina conference in two weeks.
以太坊生态持续加码隐私领域，特别是Railgun……
The Ethereum Foundation continues to increase its investment in institutional-level solutions, especially institutional-level privacy solutions like Railgun…
(5) With the occurrence of market liquidation events, the window for using RAIL as a short-term transaction has been closed, but the window for using it as a long-term investment (with at least 3-5 times potential) is fully open.
Summary:Hold RAIL firmly.
