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according to:Polymarket Bet on Nobel Peace Prize Winner 11 Hours Early, attracting people’s attention.X userPhantom BetsA speculation is provided.Bitchain Vision Compilation.
Last night, I hosted a tough interview with a so-called “insider” in the Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket.
Despite an hour of questioning, we still don’t understand how one trader or team knew 12 hours in advance that Maria Machado would win.
turn out,The answer may be hiding in plain sight—on the Nobel Prize website.
During the interviews, we found some outstanding issues.There may be some kind of web crawler involved, as the trader said he used a similar strategy to extract mention market mentions from Lex Fridman’s transcript, and that the information is accessible to anyone and that “you can brute force a lot of things.”
This suggests that there is a way to find Machado’s URL before it is published.
The Nobel Prize website runs on WordPress.Like many WordPress setups, it has an XML sitemap that lists all indexable pages, even those that haven’t been made public yet.
If someone monitors this sitemap, they can easily notice a new page appearing, for example: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2025/machado/facts/
“Most likely, someone wrote a bot or script that monitors the uploads folder or sitemap for new files. When this image appeared, they connected the threads.
On the Nobel Prize website, the “last modified” timestamp in the metadata of Machado’s official portrait file is 07:18 GMT on October 10, an hour and a half before the announcement.
Portrait URL: https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2025/10/1-2_3-68e8b33bd36fa-scaled.jpg
This image was uploaded to the official Nobel Prize announcement page: http://nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2025, you can guess the link by replacing 2025 with 2024.
Additionally, there are other pages on the XML sitemap showing Machado as the winner before the official announcement, all at around 07:20 GMT.
Timestamps prove that by early morning the Nobel website had been loaded with materials announcing the winners.This also leads to a bigger question:Can I see it before this??
The data I can find only shows the “last modified” date of the page, meaning this image was published on or before this time.Looking back, we only know the most recent timestamp of this image, which was probably 12 hours ago, and the information available on these pages only hints that Machado was one of multiple winners.
Regardless, seeing as hours before the official announcement, there was strong evidence that Machado was the winner, which is cool.
Some questions remain unanswered.Unfortunately, the rest is just speculation.
X user Polysights replied after this article: The possibilities increase exponentially.For example: The person who altered the photo most likely knows the winner.This person may tell 5 people, and these 5 people may tell 5 other people, and so on.Information is king.Whether scraped from the web, from privileged sources, etc.Insider or not.
X user Louis Amira said: I guess the person who updated the website earlier in the day was not one of the 5 people on the Nobel Prize Committee.
