Tom Lee sets the tone for Ethereum: See $12,000 at the end of the year

Tom Lee’s recent forecasts on Ethereum prices are mainly concentrated in the range of $10,000 to $12,000 by the end of 2025, while the target of $15,000 is a more optimistic “price discovery range.”The following is a detailed analysis based on the latest information:

1. The core viewpoint and time frame of prediction

At the Impact meeting of South Korea’s Blockchain Week on September 24, 2025, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine and co-founder of Fundstrat, made it clear that the target price at the end of Ethereum is$10,000 to $12,000and think it may enter10 to 15-year super cycle.The core basis of this prediction includes:

1. Large-scale inflow of institutional funds

   Ethereum spot ETF has recently had a net inflow of US$1.019 billion in a single-day manner, with a total net asset value exceeding US$25.7 billion, and its holdings account for 4.96% of the circulating supply.BitMine, the world’s largest publicly listed ETH Treasury company, has a net increase of 8,000 to 10,000 ETH daily, with a goal of holding 5% of the total global supply.

2. Compliance advantages and financial infrastructure status

   Ethereum is called “the most compliant blockchain” by Tom Lee, meeting Wall Street and the government’s requirements for financial infrastructure.With the rise of asset tokenization (such as JPMorgan’s stablecoin and Robinhood’s token project), the degree of financialization of ETH will be significantly improved.

3. Technology upgrade and ecological maturity

   Layer 2 (such as Arbitrum and Optimism)’s TVL reached US$132 billion in September 2025, an increase of 22% from June; the Fusaka upgrade is scheduled to be launched in December, and by expanding blob capacity and introducing PeerDAS technology, it is expected to double Ethereum transaction throughput to 12,000 transactions per second.The total number of DeFi locked positions (TVL) returned to US$180 billion, with the pledge yield stable at 4%-6%, attracting more than 36 million ETHs to participate in the pledge.

2. The background and logic of the $15,000 goal

Although Tom Lee’s core forecast is $10,000 to $12,000, he mentioned on some occasions that Ethereum may enterPrice discovery range from 12,000 to 15,000 USD, the supporting factors of this view include:

1. Market sentiment resonates with technical aspects

   As of September 25, 2025, Ethereum price was approximately US$4153, up about 147% from the beginning of the year, and has recently exceeded US$4800, approaching an all-time high of US$4953.Technical indicators show that its price trend is in a healthy upward channel. If it breaks through the psychological threshold of US$5,000, it may trigger further chasing the rise.

2. Macro liquidity loose

   The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts in September 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25%, and hinted that there are two more interest rate cuts this year.Historical data shows that the rate cut cycle usually drives the valuation expansion of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin price rose by more than 300% in a year after the rate cut in March 2020.

3. Strengthening of long-term narrative

   Tom Lee believes that Ethereum’s “super cycle” will be driven by factors such as the integration of AI and blockchain, real-world assets (RWA) tokenization (such as BlackRock and Fidelity bringing $60 billion in assets to the chain).If these trends accelerate, ETH may break through the traditional valuation model and enter a higher price range.

3. Risk and uncertainty

1. Potential changes in regulatory policies

   Although the US FDIC allows banks to participate in crypto businesses, the SEC’s lawsuit against centralized exchanges (such as Coinbase, Binance) is still ongoing, which may affect market confidence.The implementation of the EU’s Crypto Assets Market Regulation (MiCA) may also impose new restrictions on businesses such as stablecoins.

2. The execution risk of technology upgrades

   Although Fusaka upgrades are regarded as a key catalyst, there is still uncertainty as to whether its phased expansion (December 2025, January 2026) can be completed on time and whether it will cause cybersecurity issues.In addition, the market share of competitors such as Solana is increasing, and its NFT trading volume has increased from 8% in 2024 to 15% in Q3 2025, and it may divert part of the funds.

3. Macroeconomic fluctuations

   Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, the dot chart shows that the policy interest rate in 2026 may remain at 3.25%-3.50%, higher than market expectations of 2.9%.If inflation rebounds or economic data exceeds expectations, it may lead to a slowdown in interest rate cuts and suppress the performance of risky assets.

4. Other perspectives of institutions and markets

1. Standard Chartered Bank

   The ETH price is expected to be $7,500 by the end of 2025 and $25,000 in 2028, with the core driving force being institutional adoption and technology upgrades.

2. Wall Street Analyst Sean Farrell

   The year-end target price is $10,000, which can reach $12,000 to $15,000 under optimism, mainly based on ETF capital inflows and Layer 2 ecological expansion.

3. Market sentiment indicators

   On-chain data shows that the number of active addresses increased by 30% in September 2025, and the holdings of whales (addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH) hit a two-year high, indicating that long-term investor confidence has increased.

V. Conclusion

Tom Lee’s latest forecast shows that Ethereum has a higher probability of reaching $10,000 to $12,000 by the end of 2025, while the $15,000 target requires more support from factors that exceed expectations (such as faster institutional inflows and breakthrough technology upgrades).Investors need to pay attention to the following key nodes:

• December 2025

  Fusaka upgraded to go online and the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.

• Early 2026

  Layer 2: Verification of the expansion effect and policy trends before the US election.

Overall, although Ethereum’s long-term prospects are generally optimistic, its short-term prices may still be significantly affected by factors such as market sentiment and regulatory policies. Investors should remain rational and avoid excessive leverage.