jakiro
Author: Haotian; Source: X, @tmel0211
Honestly, IDon’t thinkJust based on Hyperliquid’s success template, Aster’s pull-up effect and Lighter’s Farm boom and other indicators, we can judge the sustainability of Perp DEX narrative..The reasons are as follows:
1) Hyperliquid’s success is somewhat accidental; just like the analysis of my first three Perp articles,The emergence of Hyperliquid is essentially a “mutant” in which DEX and CEX continue to confront each other.It does not represent the victory of DEX, nor does it represent the failure of CEX. It is a compromise innovation.
Because HL’s success has a perfect superposition of multiple factors, including the persistence of the CEX trust crisis, the use of a dedicated transaction chain to break through the previous limitations of general chain transaction applications, and the gradual wealth-making effect of airdrops without VC community.
This success template is difficult to copy.Especially this moat of “first-start advantage + network effect” cannot be solved by simply copying the product model.HL took 2 years from 0 to 70% of the market share. Who has this window now?
2) Aster’s extremely short-term wealth creation effect is just based on the call from the invincible CZ in the universe, and the community’s expectations of Binance’s own son, but the essence behind this is the inclination of the exchange’s resources and the operation of market makers behind it.
There are many exchange strategic considerations and interpretations of liquidity driven by phenomenal product packaging. There are many KOLs in the market that can be analyzed more attractively, so I won’t repeat it.
Just a core question: If the product strength performance is not fully verified by the market, how can the dozens of times increase in a short period of time be supported?Only long-term data indicators such as OI holdings, TVL stability, and Revenue data can resist the attack. The most important thing is that the growth flywheel of “processing fee + repurchase” is the beginning of supporting all this.
Applying to $ASTER, there is VC, KOL round subsequent selling pressure, potential BNB Holder selling pressure after spot Binance, and the demand for dark trading has not been verified by the market, it is unknown whether the handling fee will be continuously repurchased.In this way, defining it as the next Hyperliquid is too hasty?
3) Other Perp Dex rising stars do have technical innovation expectations. Although they have not been effectively verified, from the data dimension, it is obviously exaggerated by the market’s Farm expectations at this stage. For example, Lighter continues to attract the refresh of TVL and transaction volume data with zero handling fees, and many people have surpassed Hyperliquid.
This actually exposes the problem. How long can the expected transaction volume of this type of subsidy and various Farm airdrops last? What will happen if the airdrop is not as good as expected? What if the technical narrative cannot stand the test?What really determines its market position must be the continuous “trading fee + repurchase”, and it can be balanced and maintain a win-win situation in the interests of all parties such as MM market makers, traders, ordinary traders, etc..
These all take a long time, or a test of a complete market cycle, at least, there is no way to determine them too early.
4) What worries me the most is that everyone only sees the side of Hyperliquid threatening Binance, but ignores its joint impact on Perp DEX on other L1 and L2.
The positioning of Hyperliquid’s new “transaction chain” verifies the necessity of chain-level optimization for the transaction experience, but, however, what should I do if this makes other general chains that rely on transaction applications?After all, attention and liquidity are limited, and the rise of a number of new transaction chains will inevitably have a direct impact on other public chain ecology.
Don’t forget that the prosperity of the DeFi market depends on the comprehensive activation of market “innovation” and “liquidity” such as modularity and composability.If Hyperliquid’s single trading chain model can grab market share from CEX, it will definitely be a success. But if imitations are rolling around, they only swept away market share from other Perp DEXs of L1 and L2, and behind a large part of the emergent Perp DEXs are the figure of the CEX exchange, So, is the arrival of this kind of market prosperity in line with everyone’s original intention of “decentralized revolution”?
Of course, maybe you will say that forcing the exchange to evolve is also progress, I don’t deny it.HL’s innovation evolution is not wrong, and the exchange-driven disputes between Perp DEX (new force CEX) are not wrong. We also look forward to the recovery of more pure chain Perp DEX markets., the prosperity of each family is different, retail investors just want to eat meat.OK, I hope you understand all this and be a smart little boy.
