Fidelity: Bitcoin is no longer a high-risk asset and is “de-risk”

Author: God’s grace

Data from institutional giants reveals that the fission of the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. bonds is reshaping the global asset landscape.

Today we will talk about a major signal that may change your investment awareness:Bitcoin may be bidding farewell to the label of “high-risk assets”, evolve toward a more mature asset stage.

On September 12, Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of global asset management giant Fidelity, released a short but meaningful view on the X platform:Changes in the correlation between Bitcoin and 10-year Treasury yields, indicating that it may be heading towards a “maturity stage beyond the high-risk assets.”

This is not a rumor, but the judgment of traditional financial giants who manage $7.2 trillion in assets.What mystery is hidden behind it?

01 Why are Bitcoin and US Treasury yields “decoupled”?

To understand Fidelity’s logic, we must first understand a concept:Asset Relevance.

Simply put, it is the degree of linkage between the price trends of the two types of assets.Traditionally, Bitcoin is regarded as a “high-risk asset”, and its price tends to rise and fall with risky assets such as US stocks and other risky assets, which is contrary to the trend of “safe-haven assets” such as US Treasury bonds.

But Fidelity points out that this traditional relationship isSubtle and profound fission occurs.

• Historic low correlation: Data shows that the 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has dropped toThe lowest level on record.This means that Bitcoin’s trend is becoming increasingly independent and no longer simply following the pace of traditional risk assets.

• The paradox of synchronous rise: What’s more interesting is that in May this year, both even appearedSimultaneous riseThe rare phenomenon – the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 4.6%, and the price of Bitcoin also exceeded $110,000.This was unimaginable in the past, as rising U.S. Treasury yields usually meant that funds were out of risky assets, but Bitcoin strengthened against the trend.

02 Why is this a sign of “maturity”?

This rupture of correlation is by no means accidental.Behind it is a fundamental change in Bitcoin identity.

1. Institutional entry, attribute transformation

   The buying structure of Bitcoin has changed.Institutional giants such as Fidelity are not only observers, but also participants.Fidelity has already allocated its treasury assetsMore than $160 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum.BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC jointly hold more than 6% of the total Bitcoin supply.When sovereign funds, pension funds, and listed companies allocate Bitcoin as strategic assets, its volatility is naturally smoothed by long-term funds, the storage value attributes of its “digital gold” are becoming increasingly prominent.

2. The macro environment forces new Bitcoin role

   The world is currently facing a “fiscal dominance”.Simply put, the scale of government debt is too large and it may have to dilute debts through inflation.This discounts the “help-averse” attribute of traditional treasury bonds – although the nominal rate of return is high, the actual return may be negative.

   So, Bitcoin’sFixed supply (21 million pieces)It has become a new tool to fight fiscal and inflation risks.Fidelity executives bluntly said: Bitcoin is becoming a “strategic reserve” asset.

3. Volatility decreases, attractiveness increases

   Yes, Bitcoin is still volatile, but its volatility isStructured decline.Jurrien Timmer, global macro director of Fidelity, previously pointed out that Bitcoin has entered the “latest stage of adoption cycle, with reduced volatility.”Data shows that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted returns) reached 0.94 between 2023 and 2025, even surpassing US stocks and gold.For institutions,Allocation of 1%-5% of Bitcoin can actually improve the risk-adjusted returns of the entire investment portfolio.

03 The big guys voted with real money: they have already acted

Signals are not just data, but also actions.Top players around the world are re-layout:

• Fidelity: Not only buy coins by yourself, but also provide Bitcoin ETFs and pension (IRA) Bitcoin configuration services to customers, and even launchedBitcoin mortgage loanServe.

• Listed companies: 27 listed companies including MicroStrategy (holding more than 570,000 BTC), Metaplanet, Tesla, etc. have included Bitcoin in the balance sheet, with a total holding of more than800,000 BTC.

• State and Sovereign Fund: According to Fidelity executives, although most sovereign funds and pension funds have not yet been allocated on a large scale, this trend will accelerate in the next few years.

Seeing this, you may be most concerned about: What should I do?

1. Change of thinking: Stop treating Bitcoin as a “gambling tool” or “speculative product”.Try to useThe vision of allocating “core assets”Look at it and think about the long-term role it plays in your overall wealth.

2. Positioning correction: Bitcoin does not completely replace gold or Treasury bonds, butA unique, non-sovereign value store supplement.Its low correlation (or even negative correlation) with other assets is its greatest value.

3. Strategic response: For most ordinary people, it is difficult and risky to directly speculate coins.You may wish to passCompliant Bitcoin ETFs (such as Fidelity’s FBTC, BlackRock’s IBIT)Long-term fixed investment, enjoy trend dividends, and avoid the risk of keeping your own private keys.

This tweet from Fidelity was like a thunderclap, announcing that a quiet asset revolution was happening.

Bitcoin is experiencing an “identity crisis” – it has gone from a “Ponzi scheme” questioned at birth to a “digital gold” that is sought after, and now recognized by traditional financial giants as a kind ofIndependent, gradually mature macro assets.

The wheels of history are always perceived late, but never late.When risky assets are no longer “risk”, perhaps it is the time for us to redefine the future.