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Based on the three rounds of interest rate cuts in 2019/2020/2024, this research report combines the latest employment and inflation data, the price signals of the US dollar and gold, as well as high-frequency indicators such as ETF redemption and stablecoin supply,Propose the core judgment of “interest rate cut = conditional trigger rather than single catalysis”.The current market is almost fully priced for September 25bp, with Bitcoin located in the key range of US$110,700–114,000, and the volatility is low. Net inflows of ETFs slowed down and corporate coin purchases marginally weakened, making prices more dependent on the path ahead and marginal changes in funds after landing: if there is a sideways or a moderate decline in interest rates, a rate cut is more likely to act as a “stabilizer” and trigger an unexpected rebound; if there is an excessive pull-up before, the “selling fact” and the short-term pullback risk increase.The medium term depends highly on the two “quantitative gates” – the continuous absorption of ETFs and the return of corporate treasury/refinancing coin purchases; DAT institutionalization and stablecoin expansion provide incremental liquidity, while inflation rebound, US dollar stabilization, regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty constitute the main constraints.In terms of strategy, it is recommended to “tactical light positions to deal with policy week, strategy follows the fourth quarter liquidity”, keep a close eye on the inflection points of ETF redemption and stablecoin supply, select structural opportunities related to XRP, SOL and DAT while BTC/ETH is anchored, and use options/basis hedging to control the drawdown.
one,Macro background overview
The current global macro environment is at a subtle and critical turning point.As US economic data continues to weaken, the market has almost reached a high degree of consensus that the Federal Reserve will launch this round of interest rate cuts on September 17.Data from CME FedWatch Tools and Decentralized Forecasting Market Polymarket shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in this interest rate meeting has soared to the 88%–99% range, which is almost a “confirm” result.On the evening of September 10, according to Jinshi, the US PPI annual rate in August was 2.6%, expected to be 3.3%, the previous value was 3.30%, lower than the year-on-year increase of 3.1% in July, and was also significantly lower than expected. After the PPI increase in August unexpectedly lower than expected and eased market concerns that inflationary pressure hindered monetary easing policies, traders bet on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve may initiate a series of interest rate cuts that will continue until the end of the year..According to pricing for futures contracts linked to Fed policy interest rates, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points first at its meeting next week, and then continue to cut interest rates by the same amount this year.At the same time, some Wall Street institutions and international investment banks, such as Bank of America and Standard Chartered, have even further deduced that there may be room for a second rate cut this year.Although the aggressive operation of 50 basis points at one time is still regarded as a low-probability event by the market, this possibility is no longer completely ignored in the context of unexpectedly rapid cooling of the labor market.The direct contact factor of this change in policy expectations is the recent significant deterioration in the US job market.The non-farm employment data in August only added 22,000 new jobs, far below the market’s previous general expectations of 160,000 to 180,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, a record high since 2021.What’s more impactful is that after the U.S. Department of Labor revised its benchmark employment data over the past year, it lowered more than 900,000 jobs at one time.This means that there is a serious overestimation of the employment stabilization narrative that the market has relied on over the past few months, and the real situation of the labor market is more fragile than it appears.Compared with historical experience, data corrections of similar magnitude usually only occur in the early stages of an economic recession or after a major shock, so this adjustment has rapidly intensified the market’s expectations that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its shift to easing.
However, the slowdown in employment did not bring about a synchronous rapid decline in inflation, but instead formed a complex situation of “growth slowdown + inflation stickiness”.The latest data shows that the US CPI still remains around 2.9%, while the core PCE fluctuates in the 2.9%–3.1%, significantly higher than the 2% long-term target set by the Federal Reserve.This inflation stickiness means that policy makers are still under pressure when easing monetary policy, which not only provides a buffer for job cooling, but also cannot overstimulate prices to rise again.This dilemma has significantly increased the market’s differences over the Fed’s subsequent policy path: dovish people stressed that the deterioration of the labor market has posed a systemic risk and should cut interest rates faster and more vigorously; while the hawkish camp believes that the current price level cannot be ignored, and premature turn may weaken the long-term inflation anchorage.Every move of the Federal Reserve will be magnified and interpreted in the financial markets.Against this background, the price signals in the financial market also reflect the rapid changes in expectations.The dollar index has been under pressure and has fallen to a low in nearly a year, showing investors’ attractiveness to U.S. monetary assets.In contrast, safe-haven assets and liquid-sensitive assets performed strongly.Gold has been rising since the summer, and has recently broken through the $3,600 per ounce mark, setting a record high continuously, becoming the most direct beneficiary of liquidity expectations loose.In the treasury bond market, long-term interest rates have fallen significantly after experiencing high fluctuations at the beginning of the year, and the yield curve is still in a deep inverted state, strengthening the market’s concerns about the risks of future economic recession.At the same time, the stock market performance is relatively differentiated, and the technology and growth sectors benefit from the downward expectations of interest rates and remain resilient, while the traditional cyclical sectors are under the influence of fundamental pressure.
For the global capital market, this macro pattern is no longer just a turning point in the US domestic monetary policy, but is also interpreted as the beginning of a new round of global liquidity cycle.The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and emerging market central banks are all paying attention to the trends of the Federal Reserve, and some markets have even sent out signals of easing in advance, trying to seize the opportunity of global funds redistribution.While the US dollar weakened, some emerging market currencies received a certain respite, and commodity prices remained firm under the support of liquidity expectations.This spillover effect means that the FOMC meeting in September is not only an event in the U.S. financial markets, but also a key turning point in the global risk asset pricing framework.This macro background is particularly important for the crypto asset market.Over the past decade, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have gradually shifted from marginal assets to part of mainstream investment portfolios, and the correlation between their price fluctuations and the macro liquidity environment has been increasing.Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often responds in advance on the eve of monetary policy easing, showing the characteristics of “expectations drive upward”; but after the policy is truly implemented, the market will sometimes experience a short-term pullback of “selling facts” due to the deterioration of economic reality.Nowadays, with the complex pattern of rapid weakening of employment, unabated inflation stickiness, continued weakness in the US dollar, and gold hit new highs, Bitcoin’s pricing logic is at a critical juncture in the game between policy expectations and economic reality.Whether traders, institutional investors, or retail participants, they are closely watching the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, which may become the decisive turning point in the crypto market trends in the coming months and even throughout the year.
2. CurrentOverview of the current situation of the crypto market
Recently, the market price of Bitcoin has stabilized around US$113,000, with a weekly increase of about 2.4%, and is in a relatively stable oscillation range overall.It is worth noting that the current volatility level has dropped to the lows of the past few months, which means that the market has entered a stage of waiting and accumulating momentum.Several analysts pointed out that the short-term key technical range is between $110,700 and $114,000: If the price can effectively break through $114,000 and stabilize, it is expected to open up a new round of upward space and the market may turn to bets on “liquidity return”; if it falls below $110,700, the $107,000 below becomes the primary support, and if this position falls, it may trigger a deeper correction to around $100,000.This pattern of resistance above and support below just reflects that investors are cautious about the upcoming Fed policy window. The market temporarily chooses to control positions before key news arrives, weakening short-term fluctuations.Compared with Bitcoin’s volatile consolidation, Ethereum has performed slightly weak recently, and with the continued net outflow of ETFs, the capital market has shown a contraction trend.Some market participants believe that Ethereum’s current ecological narrative is relatively weak. Layer2’s expansion and re-pled track has entered a cooling-off period after experiencing the fanaticism of the first half of the year, and institutional funds lack the motivation to increase incremental allocation in the short term.However, ETH’s on-chain activity remains resilient, and the DeFi occupancy rate and pledge scale are still at high levels, which to a certain extent buffers the negative impact of capital outflows.In contrast, assets such as XRP and Solana have experienced a phased rebound due to expectations of interest rate cuts, especially XRP, which rose by about 4% in a single day after ETF-related products gained market attention, indicating that some investors shifted their risk appetite to second-tier mainstream coins during the Bitcoin consolidation period.Solana continues to rely on ecological innovation and institutional interests, especially the news that its digital asset treasury (DAT) concept has obtained access to Nasdaq, making it a pioneer case of on-chain capital marketization, which brings an independent catalyst for SOL.ETF capital flows are one of the core structural factors in the current market.Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have shown a net outflow trend in the past few weeks, showing a short-term wait-and-see mentality of institutional funds, but some new products and potential approvals have still become the focus of market attention.For example, the approval expectations of XRP ETFs and a new batch of Bitcoin ETFs are still seen as key catalysts that may ignite a new round of capital inflows.Some research institutions expect that if the Fed cuts interest rates by 75–100 basis points in 2025, it may release more than $6 billion in incremental funds into crypto ETF products, becoming potential structural buying.This logic is similar to the experience in 2024. At that time, it was the superposition of ETF inflows and corporate demand for coin purchases that drove Bitcoin to strengthen against the trend after the interest rate cut was implemented.The difference is that the pace of ETF inflows has slowed significantly in 2025, and the market is waiting for a new funding trigger.
In addition to the traditional logic of Bitcoin, Ethereum and ETF, emerging narratives are also shaping the market structure.First, the rapid rise of the digital asset treasury (DAT). As a hybrid model combining equity financing and on-chain reserves of listed companies, DAT has extended from the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum to the Solana ecosystem.The recent approval of SOL Strategies on the Nasdaq means that the combination of traditional capital markets and crypto asset reserve mechanisms is accelerating.In bull markets, DAT often forms a positive feedback flywheel through asset appreciation and capital premium, while in bear markets, risks amplify due to redemption and selling, and its pro-cyclical characteristics make it an innovative product that the market pays great attention to.Some analysts call DAT the “next ETF” and are expected to become an institutional sector of the capital market in the coming years.At the same time, the market for Meme coins and high-risk copycat contracts remains hot, becoming a weather vane for retail investors’ sentiment.Against the backdrop of the lack of trend-based markets of mainstream currencies, a large amount of funds flows to Meme projects with severe short-term fluctuations, such as Dogecoin, Bonk, PEPE, etc., which remain highly active in the social media and contract markets.The cyclical rise of the Meme sector usually means that the market risk preference has rebounded, but it is often accompanied by higher risk of liquidation and short-term fluctuations.This high-risk preference exists in sharp contrast with the stable allocation of mainstream institutional investors, indicating that the internal structure of the crypto market is still highly differentiated.
Overall, the crypto market is currently at a complex balance point: Bitcoin fluctuates in key ranges, waiting for policy signals to determine the direction; Ethereum’s short-term capital market is under pressure, but the long-term ecosystem is still resilient; second-tier mainstream coins and emerging narratives provide local highlights, but it is difficult to independently drive the overall market; ETF liquidity and stablecoin expansion are the underlying logic supporting market resilience.In addition, the high-risk game between the emerging model of DAT and the Meme market together constitutes a multi-layered landscape of the current market.At the critical moment when macroeconomic policy is about to turn, market sentiment is in the middle of caution and testing, and this waiting under low volatility may breed a large market trend in the next stage.
three,Review of the historical review and current situation of the United States rate cut
Looking back at the recent three rounds of “interest rate cuts – crypto market” interactions from history, we can clearly see that the same macro signal will show completely different price paths under different fundamentals and capital structures.2019 is a typical “expectations come first, cashing out the callback”: before the fundamentals deteriorate to trigger easing, Bitcoin first interprets risk appetite repair and valuation repricing.At that time, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in July, September and October. The marginal easing of the monetary environment and the late bets on “soft landing” made BTC rebound all the way in the first half of the year, and once reached above $13,000 in June. However, after the policy was truly implemented, the reality of the economic downturn and the decline in global risk appetite began to dominate asset pricing. Bitcoin retreated at a high level throughout the year and fell to around $7,000 at the end of the year. The market finally corrected its previous optimistic expectations for liquidity and growth by “cashing-repricing”.From this point of view, in 2019, it was not the interest rate cut itself to suppress prices, but the narrative of “rate cut = passive confirmation of growth downward” prevailed, resulting in a sequence of rising first and then falling.
2020 is a completely different “unusual sample”.The liquidity shock caused by the sudden outbreak of the epidemic has caused the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in March (-50bp on March 3 and -100bp to zero interest rates on March 15), and cooperated with unlimited QE and the United Central Bank swap line and other combinations to stabilize system risks.Around the most violent “Black Thursday” (March 12), Bitcoin and risky assets passed the passive deleveraging and fell sharply in a single day, and then it quickly turned upward on the “policy bottom” of the dual stimulus of fiscal-monetary.Since the trigger for this round is exogenous public health events and liquidity crises, rather than a moderate slowdown at the tail of the typical business cycle, it does not have high frequency comparable to 2025: the “pit first, rebound later” in 2020 reflects more the technical contraction of the US dollar shortage and margin chain rather than a linear response to the rate cut itself.
Entering 2024, the historical path has been rewritten again.At the macro level, the Federal Reserve launched this round of easing in September and directly chose the “starting move” of 50bp, and then the dot chart still points to further relaxation within the year; at the political level, the US election pushed “crypto assets/digital asset supervision and national strategy” to the center of the topic; at the market level, the passive and active capital needs accumulated by spot Bitcoin ETFs after the implementation of supervision occurred, and after the election results were clear, a record-breaking net inflow of a single-day net inflow.These three factors have formed a strong hedge against the fact that “selling after interest rate cuts”: not only did the price not continue to use the “cashing pullback” in 2019, but instead fluctuated and strengthened under the three support of policy anchoring, policy-friendly narrative and instrumental buying (ETF), and gradually completed the three-stage interpretation from “narrative-driven-funded-in-price confirmation”.In other words, the 2024 experience shows that when structural incremental funds (ETFs) coexist with strong narratives (policy friendly/political cycles), the signal effect of interest rate cuts will be significantly amplified and persistent, weakening the traditional channel of concern for “rate cuts = growth downward”.
Based on the above three paragraphs of history, September 2025 is more like a “trigger point under conditional constraints” than a direct catalysis in a single direction.First of all, from the pace, Bitcoin has entered a long-term consolidation since its mid-year high, implicit volatility has declined, futures holding structure is neutralized, net inflows on the ETF side have slowed down significantly, and some months have even approached the record-level net outflow level – this means that the background of “policy + narrative + passive capital triple resonance” in 2024 has not yet reappeared.Secondly, from a structural perspective, the capital flows between Ethereum ETFs and some mainstream chains have differentiated, indicating that the configuration disk is reevaluating the trade-offs of “Beta vs. Structural Opportunities”.Again, from the perspective of macro anchors, the market has a strong consistency in the 25bp interest rate cut in September, and the marginal variables are focused on “forecast guidance and subsequent rhythm after implementation”, which can change the path of duration, substantial interest rates and liquidity expectations more than “whether to cut interest rates” itself.The above three points jointly decide: September interest rate is more likely to be the “calibration time for positions and emotions”, and its price impact depends on the path.
Based on this, we divide the potential evolution of September 2025 into two main lines.If the price spontaneously rises before the meeting, the momentum indicator turns stronger and approaches the key range above, the probability of repeating the “expected trading-fact fulfillment” pattern in history increases: after the interest rate cut is implemented, the momentum reversal of short-term long settlement and the CTA/quantitative trading may be superimposed, triggering a rapid retracement of 3%–8%, and then the secondary direction is determined by more medium-term liquidity expectations and marginal funds.The core of this branch is “price comes first, capital arrives later”, allowing “looseness” to change from positive news to stop profit signals in the moment of landing.On the contrary, if the price maintains sideways or even moderately falls before the meeting, and the leverage and speculative net longs passively sell, and the market enters the three low states of “low position, low volatility, and low expectations”, then the forward guidance of 25bp interest rate cuts and doves may become a “stabilizer” or even a “shock source”, triggering an unexpected round of band rebound: the narrowing of net outflow of ETFs – net injection repair of stablecoin – recovery of derivative basis – recovery of spot premiums – gradually completing the chain, and the price will build a stronger medium-term platform in the form of “bottom-up”
Therefore, under the three-step method of “historical backtracking – present portrayal – situational deduction”, we came to three conclusions that are oriented towards the execution level: First, grasp “path dependence” rather than “event itself”.The rise before the meeting is long, and the sideways before the meeting determines how the same news is transformed into two completely different price reactions; second, tracking the marginal turning point of the “quantitative gate” is more important than judging the “pigeon/eagle”: ETF redemption and company side-purchase coins – refinancing itself is observable capital variables, and their explanatory power of trends is often stronger than that of macroscopic caliber; third, respecting “term stratification” and dividing transactions into “tactical trading of policy weekly fluctuations” and “strategic layout of Q4 liquidity trends” parallel: the former relies on positions and risk control, while the latter relies on forward-looking analysis of funds and policy rhythms.History will not be simply repeated, but it will rhyme; the “rise first and fall” in 2019, the “collapse first and then V” in 2020, and the “resume interest rate cuts and continues to strengthen” in 2024, together constitute the “conditional trigger” context in September 2025 – the key is not “the hammer falls”, but when the hammer falls, what positions and capital gates are pressed on both ends of the chopping board.
Against the backdrop of the current market’s highly consistent expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut in September, the potential path of the crypto market can be divided into three categories of situations: “positive-negative-indefinite”.First of all, from the positive path, the market has actually included the 25 basis points interest rate cuts almost completely into the price, which means that the implementation of the policy itself may not become a decisive catalyst, but if it is accompanied by a series of marginal variables turning positive, such as the net inflow of ETF funds flows, some institutions choose to increase positions after a price pullback, or new demand for buying coins at the enterprise level, then mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to usher in a second upward trend.Research firm AInvest pointed out that a lower interest rate curve means a decline in risk-free yields, supporting the valuation of risky assets, especially Bitcoin, which dominates the logic of “long-term holding”.Under this assumption, Bitcoin is expected to re-accumulate funds to promote it, continuing a similar “policy bottom + structural funding resonance” pattern in 2024.CryptoSlate’s estimates suggest that if the Fed cuts interest rates by 75–100 basis points in 2025, it may release more than $6 billion of incremental demand for ETFs to flow to the Bitcoin market.Some well-known analysts are also optimistic, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee bluntly stated that if interest rate cuts are combined with strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s target range may hit $200,000 at the end of the year, while Ethereum is expected to benefit from the resonance of on-chain narrative and liquidity to the $7,000 level.Although this type of prediction is radical, it highlights the potential amplification effect of policy and capital resonance on prices, especially in the context of extremely low market volatility and light positions in the early stage, once new funds pour in, their price elasticity will be significantly amplified.
To sum up, the impact of interest rate cuts in September 2025 on the crypto market is not one-way, but depends on the interaction between price paths, capital flows and macro variables.If the market remains steady before the meeting and the net inflow of ETFs recovers, it is expected to usher in an unexpected rebound, and even push Bitcoin and Ethereum to hit a temporary high; if there is a sharp rise before the meeting, there is a significant risk of “selling facts” and short-term fluctuations may be released in a concentrated manner.In the medium and long term, what really determines the market level is still the continuous absorption capacity of ETFs, the recovery of corporate currency purchase demand, and whether the macro environment allows liquidity to continue to be loose.Under this condition, investors must not only see upward potential, but also be wary of downward risks. They also need to maintain a balance between the “tactical game of policy week” and the “strategic layout of liquidity trends in the fourth quarter”.
Four,Opportunities and Challenges
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, the trend of the crypto market will depend on three major factors: macro liquidity environment, structural capital force, and innovative narrative within the industry..After the Fed cut interest rates in September, market attention will gradually turn to the continuity of future policy paths and whether funds will re-enter risky assets. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and Ethereum will play a decisive role as pricing anchors.Around this core, opportunities and challenges faced by the market coexist.From the perspective of opportunity,First of all, the return of macro liquidity and asset allocation demand.As the US economy enters a slowdown in growth, the bond yield curve gradually declines, investors’ expectations for the allocation of risk-free assets have decreased, and the risk premium of major categories of assets has risen again, which provides Bitcoin with room for valuation expansion as a “store of value” and “liquidity-sensitive assets”.If the Fed further cuts interest rates at the end of the year or even early 2026, global fund re-allocation demand may guide more institutional funds into the crypto market.Some investment banks and research institutions predict that under the loose path of 75–100 basis points, the annualized incremental inflow of Bitcoin ETFs may reach US$60–80 billion, and this part of the funds will form a solid buying in the medium and long term.For Ethereum, its role as a crypto financial infrastructure is clearer. If the regulatory environment continues to be open to spot ETH ETFs, funds are expected to push its prices to break through a new round of valuation range.
Secondly, the company’s demand for coin purchases and the continuation of balance sheet strategies.Since 2020, cases such as MicroStrategy and Tesla have verified the feasibility of “the company’s treasury allocating crypto assets”, and after 2024, this model has been further institutionalized.With the enrichment of corporate financing tools, such as convertible bonds and ATM financing mechanisms, the logic of a company’s direct allocation of BTC after raising funds in the capital market has been verified to be feasible.If macro interest rates decline in 2025 and corporate financing costs decline, it may in turn inspire a new round of “financing-coin purchase-stock price repricing”.This structural buying is the new pillar of the crypto market in the past few years. Whether it can continue in the future will determine the bottom stability of BTC prices.
The third opportunity lies in the intersection of internal innovation in the industry and the capital market.The digital asset treasury (DAT) model has gradually taken shape between 2024 and 2025. Its essence is to combine crypto asset reserves with financing tools in the traditional capital market to form a “third type of institutional buying” similar to ETFs and companies’ coins.Solana Eco’s SOL Strategies has been approved for listing in Nasdaq, marking a breakthrough in the integration of traditional capital markets and on-chain assets.Once the DAT products scale up, they will introduce external funds to specific chains and ecology, providing new Alpha opportunities outside of beta to the market.Also worthy of attention is the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem. Tether, USDC and even regional stablecoin projects are becoming “shadow dollar” through holding treasury bonds and cash management tools. Their scale expansion provides an additional liquidity buffer for the crypto market.
At the same time, the challenges cannot be ignored.The first challenge comes from the cyclical risk of “selling facts”.Even though the rate cut in September triggered a short-term rebound, the reality that the market has to face is that easing often means weak growth and a downward trend in risk appetite.If the U.S. job market continues to deteriorate and corporate earnings outlook is downgraded, the sustainability of ETFs and institutional buying may be hindered, and crypto assets may still repeat the “high decline” in 2019 after a short-term rise.This requires investors to maintain flexibility in positions and liquidity even if they are long in the fourth quarter and avoid unilateral bets.The second challenge lies in uncertainty in the path between inflation and the dollar.If CPI rebounds in the next few months and core PCE stays at around 3% for a long time, the Fed may have to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.If the US dollar stabilizes or even rebounds in stages, Bitcoin’s logic as a “held against the depreciation of the US dollar” will be weakened.At the same time, global macro risks (such as geopolitical frictions, energy price fluctuations) may also cause unexpected rebound in inflation, further limiting the space for liquidity easing.This misalignment between macro and market will become a potential source of volatility in the fourth quarter.The third challenge is uncertainty in regulatory and policy risks.The process of the US election and the candidates’ attitude towards the crypto industry will directly affect the regulatory scope.If regulatory approvals occur, new ETF products are shelved, or the crypto industry is subject to new policies, market sentiment will quickly turn to caution.In addition, regulatory trends in European and Asian markets are equally important. The policy trends of Singapore, Hong Kong and the EU on crypto asset custody, transactions and compliance may affect the flow of regional funds.If the regulatory environment tightens, the willingness of institutional funds to flow in will be limited and market resilience will also decline.
Overall, the crypto market after September 2025 is at a complex crossroads.On the one hand, loose liquidity, corporate currency purchases and new capital market products provide the market with long-term upward structural opportunities; on the other hand, economic reality, inflation and regulatory uncertainty pose phased challenges.For investors, the best strategy for the next stage is not to bet on a single path, but to maintain a dynamic balance between opportunities and challenges: use macroelevation and structural funds to lay out the medium and long term opportunities, and also prevent short-term fluctuations through risk hedging and position management.In other words, the market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is not a simple bull market or bear market, but a complex pattern of “opportunities and risks coexist, volatility and trends intertwined”. Only by maintaining flexibility and discipline can real excess returns be captured at this stage.
five,in conclusion
Looking back at the three interest rate cut cycles in 2019, 2020 and 2024, Bitcoin has shown completely different price trajectories under different macro environments and capital structures. This research report puts forward three core conclusions.First, the Fed’s interest rate cut has been almost completely priced by the market. The implementation of 25bp will not change the trend itself. What really determines the direction is the price path before the meeting and the marginal flow of funds after the interest rate cut..If Bitcoin maintains sideways or even falls moderately before the interest rate meeting and the market position pressure is released, then the interest rate cut may become a stabilizer and even trigger an unexpected rebound; if the price has risen sharply before the meeting, the probability of “selling facts” is significantly increased, and the price may face a rapid pullback in the short term.Second, ETFs and corporate currency purchase demand are quantitative gates for whether the medium-term market can continue..If the net inflow of ETFs resumes positive growth and the corporate refinancing coin purchase flywheel restarts, then even if interest rate talks fluctuate on the day, the path of “bottom-up-up-breakthrough” may still form in the fourth quarter.Third, macro and policy uncertainty still poses potential risks.
In short, the Fed’s interest rate cut in September 2025 is not a “single switch for a bull or bear market”, but a trigger point for the market under complex conditions.For investors, the key is to dynamically adjust the cognitive framework: neither the interest rate cuts should be regarded as an automatic positive signal, nor the risk of “selling facts” is too much feared. Instead, we should balance opportunities and challenges, use the resonance of macro policies and structural funds to lay out the medium and long term, and manage short-term risks through flexible positions and hedging tools.Only in this way can we not only maintain the bottom line during the volatility cycle of the fourth quarter of 2025, but also grasp the potential excess returns.
