In-depth analysis of market turmoil in September

September’s historical curse and current market structure

September has always been the weakest month in the history of the U.S. stock market.According to historical data, the S&P 500 has an average return of -0.7% in September since 1950, which is much lower than other months.This is not a coincidence, but is caused by multiple impacts such as seasonal factors, capital return after the holiday, and rebalancing at the end of the quarter.If you have been paying attention to market trends for a long time, you may already know this “curse”.At the end of August 2025, we are at this critical turning point: top technology stocks lose momentum, while anti-inflation assets such as gold and silver have made strong breakthroughs.At the same time, Bitcoin has shown signs of collapse, and some people regard it as the market “canary in coal mines” – an early warning signal.

The market was bleak this week, especially as technology giants panic because Nvidia’s financial report meets expectations, resulting in a surge in selling.As of August 30, 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 6460.26 points, down 0.64%.The Nasdaq Composite Index was 21,455.55 points, down 1.15%.The small-cap Russell 2000 index performed relatively steadily, showing signs of capital rotation from large-cap technology stocks to value stocks and small-cap stocks.This phenomenon is not an isolation, but a result of the interweaving of macroeconomics, Federal Reserve policies and global geopolitical factors.Based on the latest data, this article will conduct in-depth analysis of the trends in stocks, commodities and crypto markets and explore the potential trends in September.Adventure and opportunity.

Gold and Silver: Strong Breakthrough of Anti-Inflation Assets

Let’s start with precious metals, which is the most eye-catching sector in the market at present.Gold has broken through the long-term wedge pattern, showing strong upward action energy.As of August 29, 2025, gold prices opened higher, with the market capitalization reaching US$23.611 trillion, a daily increase of 1.20%.This breakthrough was not accidental, but was driven by structural changes in the central bank’s reserve shift.Foreign central banks’ gold holdings surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time, first seen since the 1990s.In the second quarter of 2025, global central banks purchased 166 tons of gold, an increase of 41% year-on-year.BRICS countries (such as China and Russia) lead this trend, and the People’s Bank of China quietly increased its holdings of a large amount of gold from the end of 2024 to 2025.

This shift stems from the “currency war”: BRICS is developing a new payment system based on blockchain, which may use gold as an anchor asset to challenge the hegemony of the dollar.Looking back at the 1970s and 1980s, the proportion of central bank gold reserves rose sharply, driving gold prices to soar.At present, although gold prices have risen to relatively high levels, historical valuations still show that there is room for them.If we use the peak of the 1970s as a benchmark, gold is far from reaching its peak.The latest weekly chart shows that gold prices are firmly above $3,450, and the short-term target may point to $3,600, or even higher.Readers may wish to think: Where will gold prices rise in the next 12 months?Based on cycle analysis, I expect to rise to at least $3,800.

Silver’s performance was even more eye-catching, breaking through the $3,950 mark, and a new high was established.The weekly increase was significant, with a monthly increase of 30-40%.Silver’s strength stems from a recovery in industrial demand, especially driven by rare earths and metal tariffs.Since 2025, the United States has imposed higher tariffs on rare earths, resulting in a reshaping of supply chains and soaring prices.Rare Earths Monthly Metal Index (Rare Earths MMI) rose slightly by 0.37%, but medium and heavy rare earth prices surged, dominated by major manufacturers.Prices of elements such as terbium and dysprosium have soared, and supply constraints have exacerbated market differentiation.As a representative of industrial metals, silver may benefit from this, with a target price of US$42-43, far below its peak of US$50 in 2011.

Dark pool transaction data further confirm this trend.Last week, GLD (Gold ETF) recorded the largest dark pool transaction in history, signaling capital inflows to turn.This is not speculation, but an institutional risk-averse layout for inflation and the weakness of the US dollar.Overall, commodity valuation is historically low: Commodity indexes are still at a “ridiculously cheap” level compared to stocks.If the new BRICS currency is implemented in 2026, gold and silver will further benefit.

Overall valuation of commodities: Opportunities at historical lows

Expanding to a wider commodity market, the 2025 valuation shows extreme undervaluation.Rare earth demand was strong, driven by permanent magnet application, but growth was lower than expected.The price of neodymium reached 785,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 20.31%.Historical comparisons show that current commodity prices are similar to the 2005-2007 cycle lows, far below the peak in the 1970s.The tariff war intensifies this dynamic: Sino-US trade frictions have caused prices of metals such as rare earths to rise by 30-40%, but the overall goods are still cheap.

The same is true for energy commodities.Although oil prices fluctuate, the energy stock base is solid, benefiting from expectations of stagflation.The latest data shows that the energy sector is attracting smart money inflows.Commodities provide a better buffer of value compared to tech stocks, especially during the Fed’s rate cut cycle.

Stock market rotation: the shift from tech giants to value stocks

Market rotation is the core theme at present.In the past five years, all orders have been sold in September of four years, and in the other year, the adjustment has been made in advance.The same is true in 2025: Top stocks such as Palantir and Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, etc.) drive up the first half of the year, but the starting energy recession in mid-August.Although Nvidia’s stock price rose by 5.82%, overall technology stocks were under pressure.Tesla fell 6.8%.

This recession activates rotation: value stocks, equal weight indexes, health care and so on.Russell 2000 rose 7% in August, with a four-month continuous positive trend, similar to the 2020-2021 post-cycle.Since March 2021, the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000, but small-cap stocks have lower valuations: S&P price/book ratio 5.0, while Russell is only 1.8.Since August, Russell has beaten S&P in the 2000, showing that the tide has turned to the small market.

Historical data showed that the 2000 2000 in September fell less than the Nasdaq, S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Strong in the second half of the year: strong history in November and December.If the rotation continues, it can reach the nine-month positive line.Smart Money favors healthcare, industry and energy, not information technology.Healthcare forward-looking P/E 18.2, far lower than Tech 37.1, provides a valuation buffer.Industry benefits from infrastructure, while energy is expected to rise due to stagflation.

This round is not a signal of ending the market, but a “pit” or a widening formation in pulling back.If more stocks are involved, it is considered positive.The Fed’s interest rate cut strengthens this trend: market pricing cuts interest rates in September 25bps, more in 3-6 months.After the interest rate cut, the S&P median performance was negative in the short term, but the long-term positive rotation was positive.

The high-yield bond spread is historically low, similar to the calm eve of 2005-2007.The second half of the year after the election is stable, but lateral shocks are common.If the market goes sideways after the interest rate cut, the small market may lead in the middle and the market will lag behind.

Dark Pool activities are active: Nvidia, Oracle, Nvidia large-scale transactions.Ethereum has flowed huge inflows, showing accumulation.Selling pressure after Labor Day may be possible, but it may restart after digestion.

Bitcoin and Crypto: The Bear Trap in the Cycle?

Bitcoin attracts attention: it fell 7% from its February high and is currently about 108 (index level).Sometimes it leads the stock market and has a strong correlation this year.The halving cycle shows that 2024-2025 is in the “bear trap” stage: after halving, dips are common, and then the bulls will eventually run.Historical overlay shows that the current is similar to the low point of the past cycle, with a potential 20%+ rebound after a callback.

Altcoins remain stable: Solana, XRP, and Ethereum are better than Bitcoin.Bitcoin dominance fell from 65% in July to 59.7% in mid-August, and funds turned to altcoins.The copycat season usually starts from June to September after halving, and lasts for 30-40 days.There is no junk coin FOMO yet, which implies that the bull market is not over.Forecast: Bitcoin rises first, activates the copycat season, with a target of $150,000-185,000.

Crypto and Stock Connect: Bitcoin’s risk appetite is recession, but internally stable.The US dollar range fluctuates and the trend is downward.

Technical signals and key levels

S&P 500: Advanced recession line is on the rise, non-bear market.The price is not bear, with a new high of 6350, supporting 6200.Futures are similar.Nasdaq: Weakness, no new highs, like head and shoulders.

Technology ratio is 445 pressure.Tesla: 330 support, 350 call wall, if broken 380-400.Nvidia: 170-185 range, break through and get the distance.Russell 2000: Push to 2450.

Bitcoin: Low-high sequence, target 104-105, or 21% callback.Gold: Strong weekly line, target 3600.Silver: New high-tech, short-squeezing potential.Chinese market: Central bank liquidity boosted, with a rise of 42%, similar to 2006-2007.

Macro Outlook: Fed, Employment and Risk

Tuesday’s PMI and employment data are key.Employment revisions or market promotion.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has hinted at a rate cut in September, but is cautious.If the recession is caused, the structure will be: laterally, favoring small markets.Risk: Volatility low Spike, AI bubble doubts.Opportunities: rotation, commodity.

Conclusion: Strategic layout and forward-looking

Although September is weak, it rotates to broaden the market foundation.Priority is given to commodities, gold and silver, small plates, and medical energy.After the Bitcoin Trap or Bull.Based on data, the second half of 2025 is optimistic, but vigilant about negative results after the interest rate cut.In the next March to June, observe the winners and adjust their positions.