Giant whale quietly builds positions, retail investors are still waiting and watching: is the altcoin about to explode?

Author: Ben Fairbank

A friend recently described the current cryptocurrency market as“Broken Record”——Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation sideways, the time for altcoins to hit the resistance level feels endless, and many currencies hit far more than the 3 times before the usual confirmation or failure.If you are new to you, this silence can be deafening.existWhy the altcoin bull market has not come after all the headlines about ETFs, institution influx and halving cycles?

Veterans who have experienced previous cycles understand that these boring periods are the time to lay out wealth, not the time to cash out.The long waiting time for beginners is still a stage of fear and panic for veterans, because they know that there is not much time to complete the final position allocation.In 2017 and 2021, we witnessed funds pouring into Bitcoin, flowing to Ethereum, and then detonating altcoins in a few weeks.This time, the whole process was slower and the number of participants was larger.Understanding why the market is stagnant and why it is a feature rather than a flaw may determine whether you will increase the chips or give them to the giant whale in the biggest bull market in your lifetime.Your current action will determine the final result.

Four-year cycle rhythm: Why is it late this time?

The cryptocurrency bull market follows an extremely reliable rotation model.History is divided into four stages:Bitcoin leads the rise, Ethereum begins to outperform, funds rotate to large-cap altcoins, and finally the fanatical “altcoin season” pushes small-cap altcoins to parabolic trend.These phases are usually completed within 18 months of Bitcoin’s halving.I always believe that history is the best teacher, and that pattern is pattern until it is no longer pattern.

• In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin and most large-cap coins hit new highs about 2-3 months earlier than now.According to Glassnode’s cycle comparison, Bitcoin should have reached its peak now, but it’s not..

• I have repeatedly stated that the longer I used this time, the higher the increase, but am I right?The only sure thing in life is that no one knows the answer.However, I see this as the sinking of the Titanic, which is the traditional monetary system today.Bitcoin and altcoins are lifeboats, and more people are seeking to board the ship than ever before.The difference is that retail investors are men and the group that are the least likely to obtain safe channels.This analogy may be rough, but I think it is appropriate – the beauty of theory is that only time can prove right or wrong, and history tells us that this is the law.

• Cycle extension theorists point out thatThe bull market is longer than the previous round, about 24, 28 and 33 months respectively. The current cycle may be extended to 37 months, and the next major top may be in December 2025..

• Three indicators worth paying attention to are: BTC dominance is less than 60%, ETH/BTC price ratio reaches 0.058 and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.If the interest rate cut on September 17 (the current probability is 87%) is included, it may theoretically start around September 10.Assuming that the past three altcoin seasons last 8, 10 and 14 weeks respectively, then 14 weeks will continue until December 24 (if it starts on September 10).I predict the date because it is dangerous to choose the top, and it is important to set the target exit price and date, so I set the December 24th for myself, regardless of whether it is right or wrong.

Those who are used to adrenaline in 2017 or 2021 will find this lag frustrating, but that’s why the next round of markets may be spectacular.We are at the best balance between complacency and optimism, the rubber band is tight but has not broken yet.

Signals of the altcoin market

The total market value of all altcoins except Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) has been in a four-year compression since 2021.The chart shows the rising bottom, which means that the continuous buying pressure shock repeatedly refuses to break through the upper resistance.Each knock is weakening the ceiling, and the action is often violent when the final breakthrough is broken..Some currencies have been knocked 8 times, which usually means that there are “large people quietly boarding the lifeboat.”

The on-chain data also confirms this tension:

• 70% of the top 50 altcoins currently outperform Bitcoin in the month, which is a strong signal of capital rotation and the numbers will not lie.

• Bitcoin dominance has fallen below key support for the first time since the end of 2024, and this is one of the starting guns of the altcoin season in history.

• Analysts monitored the “OTHERS” chart (market value of all currencies outside the top ten) and found that it replicated the sharp recovery pattern after the 2024 decline.If Bitcoin and S&P 500 break through together, the altcoin sector may rush to $570 billion.

But the breakthrough has not yet arrived.Why?Macro headwinds suppress risk appetite and liquidity is scarce.This is indeed the case for retail investors, but we have seen companies such as MicroStrategy convert treasury to bitcoin and partly to Ethereum.This is a real big reversal, and I don’t know how many more signals people need.

Why do macro factors suppress the market?

Cryptocurrencies are no longer isolated assets.Binance research shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional bonds has continued to strengthen since 2020.During the 2022 interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin and bond prices fell, indicating that cryptocurrencies are now performing like high beta risk assets and are sensitive to liquidity conditions.This is why I say this is the last big bull market.Just imagine, if this bull market happened as I said,This bull market will make it impossible for everyone to ignore the crypto market and it will become a part of the mainstream.

The bond market experienced a storm in the first and second quarters of 2025: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped from 3.8% to nearly 4.6%, the MOVE index (bond market volatility) soared to 139, and the high-yield credit spread widened by 202 basis points.Macro drivers include tariff uncertainty, tenacious inflation and record government debt issuance.Binance analysts warn that sustained macro uncertainty means range oscillations and the soft landing scenario may trigger a rebound.Essentially, we are waiting for the start signal.

These headwinds force even cryptocurrency believers to pay attention to the Fed’s agenda.Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $102,000 to $115,000 for several months. As long as you keep $100,000, the bull market structure will be complete.This is why the Fed rate cut could be a key turning point—the liquidity injection could be the catalyst to trigger the next wave.I think this round of ETH/BTC ratio does not necessarily have to reach 0.058, because currencies such as SOL occupy more market share.The market is evolving, and our cognition needs to keep up.

Why does this cycle feel different?

Started later and the stage was bigger

Glassnode data shows we were several months behind the previous cycle.Senior trader Peter Brandt believes that Bitcoin has peaked by 30%, and analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes that the cycle is extending, pointing to the 37-month timeline.The differences themselves reflect the addition of new variables: macro policies, ETFs, corporate funds, etc..

Selective altcoin season

Miles Deutscher’s AI-driven “altcoin rally” found that early-cycle altcoins soared by thousands of percentage points, most of them underperformed Bitcoin this time.He attributed the decline in retail interest to tightening monetary policy, institutional preference for BTC, Ethereum’s difficulty in outperforming BTC and recession of retail investors.His model waits for four signals to align:BTC dominance declines, ETH/BTC breaks through, altcoin index rises, retail sentiment improves.When aligned, he expects a shorter and more selective rebound, focusing on the real application sector.Having said that, MeMe coins still dominate and applications are a lag indicator.

TOTAL3 chart displayAltcoin consolidation for four years, altcoin dominance hit a cyclical high on August 14 but did not hit a record high, and has since fallen below $1.6 trillion.Technical analysis shows that the correction may end around US$1.35-1.43 trillion, and small-cap coins may be under pressure before breaking out in the fourth quarter.

Evolution of Investor Behavior

The altcoin season in the past began with the retail FOMO Dogecoin imitation, but is now likely driven by more rational catalysts:Real-world asset tokenization, institutional ETH staking, regulatory ETF.Unlike the 2021 carnival, the supply of the new currency and regulatory scrutiny mean that the rebound may be sectoral rather than universal.

My personal opinion is:The crypto market is like a dish. At the beginning, there are only three simple ingredients. New ingredients are added to each bull market, and the taste becomes complicated and brings unexpected changes..As an early player, I look forward to people who really build products and companies to achieve a combination with value.At that moment, the “magic” of the crypto market may disappear.Once you enter this field, it’s hard to leave, but I’m getting tired of the current state and how I measure it.I look forward to continuing to build with technology rather than reactions to token prices and small investors, who rarely align with company goals.

Why does it feel so slow?

Because this is the accumulation of momentum in front of the spring.The altcoin season rarely begins during the Bitcoin price discovery period, usually after Bitcoin rises by more than 200%, the funds begin to rotate.Yieldfund pointed out thatThe altcoin season usually starts when large-cap altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana start to outperform and Bitcoin dominance falls below 54%..

This rotation is happening quietly:70% of the top altcoins have outperformed BTC, new Ethereum ETFs and staking income attract inflows, and Bitcoin dominance declines.But macro pressure has left prices trapped in a narrowing range.It feels slow because the fuse is still burning.When liquidity finally returns — whether through the Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 breakthrough or the crypto ETF regulation is clear — the compressed energy of the TOTAL3 and OTHERS indexes may be released in weeks rather than months.

We’ve all seen this.I was waiting for a lot of news and said, “I was about to buy it, but it suddenly rose. Is it too late now? What should I buy?”The start of a bull market always catches people off guard, and the calm now will surprise many people.

Key points of observation when fuse burns

• Bitcoin support and dominance: As long as BTC keeps $100,000 and its dominance continues to decline, the rotation script will still be there.The 60% share breakout is often the starting point of the altcoin season.

• Ethereum/BTC ratio: The ETH/BTC breakthrough will mark the second stage of rotation.Ethereum is now strengthening due to ETF inflows and institutional adoption.It used to be 0.058, but now it is only 0.039 (I don’t think this round is that important).

• Macrocatalysts: The Federal Reserve’s September meeting, bond market fluctuations, and tariffs will determine the timing of liquidity return.Uncertainty means oscillation, and clear signals trigger risk preference.

• Altcoin indicator: Pay attention to the mid-market coin dynamics signs of altcoin uptrend score signals (Bitcoin share, ETH/BTC, altcoin index, retail sentiment) and OTHERS charts.

Summarize

The calm now is not a weak market, but a compressed signal.Four years of altcoin consolidation, delay in cycle peaks, and macro headwinds have nurtured huge potential energy.The rotation script of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins is slowly unfolding.The difference this time is the scale of participation:Regulatory ETFs, corporate treasury, real-world assets, tens of millions of more users.When the rubber band breaks, it may be the final explosive rotation I suggest, rewarding people who are patient to get through the boredom.

Don’t give away chips for free because of impatient.The market is quiet because the band is warming up.When the music starts, you should already have a seat, but don’t forget to leave the seat before the music stops.Greed is fatal, and fear makes you never have a chance to enter.There is not much time left.