jakiro
History keeps repeating a rule: the market is always born in despair, rises in hesitation, and ends in carnival.
Bitcoin prices have recently fallen to two-month lows, falling below $108,500, but calls for “buy on dips” on social media have unexpectedly risen.This seemingly rational investment behavior may hide dangerous signals.Santiment analysts warned that this could be a warning sign for the market, not a sign of bottoming out.The real market bottom is often accompanied by widespread fear and a weakened interest in buying, often forming when the crowd loses hope and fears of buying.
Market sentiment, historical signals of divergence
When the price of Bitcoin fell below $108,500, reaching its lowest point in nearly two months, many traders feared that this might herald the beginning of a deeper pullback.However, social media is full of discussions about “buy on dips”.
This sentiment is in sharp contrast to the historical bottom of the market.Santiment’s social media analysis found that the ratio of bullish to bearish comments was almost 1:1, and this last occurred in April this year.
Veteran cryptocurrency trader VirtualBacon believes that a bull market will remain safe as long as BTC remains near a 50-week SMA (about $95,000).”We’re far from reaching euphoria,” he added, stressing that panic is driven more by fear than real data.
Money flows, revealing unusual signs
Recent capital flows have deviated from the historical trend.Bitcoin ETFs have been outflowing for six consecutive days, and have been lost in late August alone.$2 billion.Meanwhile, major gold ETFs such as GLDM also leaked $449 million in a week.
This rare phenomenon reflects changes in the current macroeconomic environment and investor psychology – Bitcoin’s outflow has not benefited gold, and both will still be under pressure until the Fed’s policy path is clear.
Bitcoin ETF finally rebounded at the end of August, with capital inflows for four consecutive days.Gold ETF also showed net inflows in the last few days of August 2025, similar to the rebound trend of Bitcoin ETF.
BlackRock’s IBIT performed well, attracting $248 million in a single week, driving the overall net inflow to $441 million.Investment consultants currently hold Bitcoin through ETFs to reach the scale of$17.4 billion, almost twice the $9 billion holding of hedge funds.
Fed policy, the roots of market uncertainty
The impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the crypto market is a complex phenomenon, showing characteristics of synchronous and lagging reactions.Instant and synchronous responses are mainly driven by market expectations and direct responses to policy announcements.
The Fed’s interest rate policy significantly affects investors’ risk appetite.Lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of traditional savings accounts and fixed income investments, prompting investors to seek higher returns in riskier asset classes such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Currently, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates on September 17, with the probability of interest rate cuts as high as87%.A loose monetary environment could inject new liquidity into risky assets such as Bitcoin.
However, unknowns in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, ongoing inflationary pressures, and signs of weak labor markets have made Bitcoin and gold at the same time lose their appeal to investors seeking certainty.The market is in a risk aversion mode, and speculative and defensive assets are difficult to gain momentum.
Potential risks in the crypto market
Josip Rupena, CEO of lending platform Milo and former Goldman Sachs analyst, said the risks posed by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-funded companies are similar to other types of debt that triggered the 2007-2008 financial crisis.Crypto finance companies hold bearer assets without counterparty risk, but introduce multiple layers of risks, including company management capabilities, cybersecurity, and the ability of enterprises to generate cash flow.
Cryptocurrency remains an excellent investment with many advantages when the cryptocurrency market crisis and the price of Bitcoin falls.But long-term bullish traders need to accumulate more tokens by adopting effective trading strategies, such as buying when falling.
How should investors respond?
To cope with the decline in Bitcoin prices, traders need to develop comprehensive and clear strategies to avoid impulsive trading, especially during market volatility.
HODLing (long-term holding)It is an effective strategy.In the long run, Bitcoin has been on an upward trend even if the price of Bitcoin falls due to temporary market adjustments or bearish markets.
Average Cost Method (DCA)It is another strategy, which refers to making small and equal investments rather than buying bitcoin regularly.By purchasing Bitcoin tokens regularly, traders can make more investments, regardless of how the cryptocurrency market performs.
Using technology analysisCan be used to evaluate how market demand and supply affect Bitcoin price fluctuations.Technical analysis takes into account the historical price trends and trading activities of Bitcoin and other financial assets.
The most important thing isEmotional Discipline and Psychology.Cryptocurrency trading can be very emotional, requiring traders to make hasty decisions in the ever-changing cryptocurrency market.Controlling emotions such as FOMO (fear of missing out), greed, and fear is crucial.
The latest developments in the Bitcoin ETF market show that capital is redefining Bitcoin’s position in the global financial system.BlackRock IBIT attracted $248 million in a single week, driving the overall net inflow to $441 million, while Grayscale GBTC continued to lose $15.3 million.
This sharp contrast reveals the differentiation of capital flows and also indicates the reconstruction of the old and new patterns.As of September 1, 2025, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached$139.95 billion, accounting for 6.52% of Bitcoin’s total market value, significantly higher than 4.8% at the beginning of the year.
Historical data show that the market “often runs in the opposite direction to retail investors’ expectations.”When most people are shouting “Buy on dips”, maybe it’s the time when we need to be vigilant.
