jakiro
The U.S. Department of Commerce has begun publishing official economic statistics directly to public blockchains, saying this move is a new step to improve transparency and data security.
Bitcoin’s “red month” is coming soon. As another September approaches, is it inevitable that the price decline will be inevitable?Let’s look at some of the reasons why Bitcoin has performed poorly in history in the ninth month of this year.
September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin since 2013, with Bitcoin prices falling in September for eight of the past 11 years.This may be because retail investors usually take profits after a summer rebound, or even sell cryptocurrencies to cover fall spending, such as tuition and tax planning.
Bitcoin’s “Red September” may also be a “self-fulfilling prophecy.”As traders generally expect prices to fall, more conservative defensive actions will be taken, which will drive the market further downward.However, objectively speaking, the pullback in most September is actually relatively mild.
It is worth noting thatSeptember usually forms a “local bottom”, after which Bitcoin tends to rebound strongly into “Golden October”, because historical data shows that the fourth quarter is often accompanied by the market recovery and even saw a sharp rise.For example, in October 2020, Bitcoin soared from about $10,800 at the beginning of the month to more than $13,800 at the end of the month, an increase of more than 27%.
No matter from which dimension, the market in August 2025 is dramatic.On August 14, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $124,533, but it plummeted 11% in just two weeks, falling to a low of around $110,000.
The decline caused the market value of nearly $200 billion, and the direct reason for the decline was that a giant whale that had previously been dormant for a long time sold about 24,000 BTC, pushing the spot price to fall below $109,000 and triggering the largest liquidation chain reaction of the year.
In this liquidation, nearly US$900 million of derivative positions were forced to close, of which 90% were bullish long positions, Bitcoin alone had US$150 million in positions cleared, and Ethereum had US$320 million in positions cleared.In contrast, Ethereum showed relative resilience: even if it fell 8%, it remained above the 100-day moving average.
Recent market weakness is not just a matter of technology or market sentiment.The order book in the spot and derivatives markets is always in a “thin” state, so any large-scale sell-off (such as the above-mentioned giant whale sell-off) is enough to amplify price fluctuations..
At the same time, on-chain data at the end of August showed that market activity was sluggish and capital inflows decreased, further weakening buying support.
Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to form resistance.As the market focuses on the Federal Reserve’s policy trends in September, traders are evaluating market volatility risks and are also expecting that if the macro signal improves (such as interest rate cuts), the market can rekindle optimism.
Cryptocurrency trader Cas Abbé has proposed three possible scenarios for the Bitcoin market approaching September.
-
“Range Oscillation and Repair” Scenario (Probability 40%): It is expected that Bitcoin will fluctuate sideways in the range of $110,000 to $120,000 for most of September. At this stage, the market will gradually reduce excess leverage, and institutional investors will gradually enter the market to increase their holdings.This consolidation will lay a healthier foundation for a potential fourth-quarter uptrend.
-
“Second Decline” scenario (probability 35%): If Bitcoin falls below $110,000, it may trigger a new round of liquidation wave, pushing the price to the high range of $100,000 and clearing the remaining leveraged positions.Historically, this type of callback is often a precursor to the emergence of a “strong bottom”.
-
“Quick Recovery” scenario (probability 25%): If institutional investors buy in large quantities, Bitcoin may quickly recover the range of $117,000-118,000, ignite bullish sentiment in advance.
Abbé suggests that throughout September, traders need to pay close attention to the macro signals on multiple necklaces, especially the option market activity before the expiration of options on September 27, which may provide important clues for judging market position structure and sentiment.
It is still unknown whether Bitcoin’s September “red month” can be converted to a “green month” this year.However, considering that the current liquidity is thin, volatility is intensifying, and institutional buyers are waiting for an opportunity to enter the market, September this year may contain both risks and opportunities.
