jakiro
The bull market is a market with high enthusiasm and rising prices.It requires money and mental strength.Only when most people exhaust the funds to be purchased and polish all their enthusiasm will the bear market swallow everything.
On Monday, the Chain mentioned that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was singing a dove, and market expectations of interest rate cuts rose sharply, but the crypto market began to collapse and fall since the weekend.Too many people believe in the correlation between macro to encryption, which is really a tragedy.Many traders who were still talking about the eternal bull market last week quickly turned the bow, claiming that this bull market had been running for too long, and BTC and ETH had both set record highs, and it was time to exit the trade.
Are the cows really tired?Is this bull market really too long?
If you start from the trough of the previous deep bear:
The starting point of this bull market should be the violent pull-up in January 2023.It has been 2 years and 8 months since August 2025.
What about the last bull market?Maybe it should start with the thunder in April 2019.It peaked in November 2021, and it lasted roughly for 2 years and 7 months.
What about the previous round?The right-hand side of the trough should be considered October 2015.It peaked in December 2017, with a duration of 2 years and 2 months.
It was November 2011 and November 2013, which lasted 2 years.
It seems that every bull market is getting longer.
Let’s change it to break through the high point of the previous bull market as the starting point of the new bull market:
The starting point of this bull market is to exceed 70,000 yuan in March 2024, setting a record high.It has been 1 year and 5 months since August 2025.
The last bull market, from exceeding 20,000 yuan in December 2020 to peak in November 2021, lasting 11 months.
The last bull market was 10 months from breaking through 1,200 yuan in February 2017 to peaking in December 2017.
The earlier round was the breakthrough of 35 in February 2013 and peaked in November 2013, which lasted 9 months.
It seems that the bull market is still elongating.
But this round of 1 year and 5 months still looks too long.
Let’s wait!Perhaps we should take the substantial breakthrough of the previous high, that is, the breakthrough that is no longer lower than the previous high, and the breakthrough that never looks back, as the starting point of calculation.
If so, then the starting point of this bull market should be to exceed 70,000 yuan in November 2024, rather than calculating the breakthrough in March 2024.
So from the substantial breakthrough in November 2024, it has only been 9 months since August 2025.
If it is the same length as the previous bull market, 11 months, then there are still 2 to 3 months, that is, October to November.
If it is longer than the previous bull market, such as extending to 12 to 13 months, then there will be 3 to 4 months left, which will end around November or December this year.
Never Look Back Price (Never Look Back Price) is a professional indicator called Never Look Back Price.
If you look carefully at the historical chart of this NLBP indicator, you will find that the bull market in 2021 has been erased.
The reason is very simple: because the bear market was not good in 2022, the bottom fell sharply below the previous high of 20,000 yuan set in 2021, and fell to 15k~16k.
It was not until January 2023 that this shame was washed away.
If the bull market ends next year and turns into a bear market, and the bottom of the Shenzhen bear falls below the previous 2021 high of 70,000 yuan, then the “2024/11 breakthrough 70k” marked in the above picture will be erased again.
Interestingly, although each bull market has been extended, they all end at the end of the bull market year.
In other words, the length of the extension grows early, not late, not late.
From this we can guess that perhaps the reason for the extension is that each round has educated time and educated people, so those who are smart in advance who judge the bull market is approaching want to take the lead in advance, which has caused the bull market to start earlier and earlier.
The start was too early, but the end was still aligned until the end of the year, so the time was extended.
Time is lengthened, so funds and emotions are diluted.It’s like putting an equal amount of sugar in a small cup of water, it tastes very sweet. If you put it in a large cup of water, it tastes much less savory.
