jakiro
A new report jointly released by Bitcoin veteran Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research said,The current market stage may be the “stable and strong” period of Bitcoin, that is, it is in the mid-term stage that may become one of the “most important bull markets” in Bitcoin history..
The report, led by Bitcoin economist and early investor Tuur Demeester, entitled “How to Layout the Bitcoin Bull Market”, predicts that from the current level, Bitcoin still has 4-10 times the price increase potential, which means the target price will exceed $500,000 in the next few years:
“We believe that we are currently in the mid-term phase of potentially becoming one of the most significant bull markets in Bitcoin history. From the current range, we believe that it still has 4-10 times the value-added space, which means that the target price of Bitcoin will exceed $500,000.”
Several indicators support this view, and on-chain trends show that senior holders are firm in their beliefs.For example, the report states that large investors (big whales) choose to hold rather than sell.Changes in net holdings of coin holders show that there has been no sign of large-scale surrender-style selling so far since 2025, and this behavior is usually related to market peaks.
“In the past two years, when Bitcoin retested previous all-time highs during the turbulent US election, the giant whales had transferred some tokens. But throughout 2025, the net transfer of coin holders never exceeded 100,000 in a single day, and this scale in history usually indicates that the market has entered a later-frenzy stage of selling.”
Another indicator is Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), which shows that 50%-70% of the Bitcoin supply is in an unrealized profitable state.This is more in line with healthy medium-term optimism than late-term fanaticism.
The report lists catalysts that may trigger a pullback, but believes that these factors have limited risks of ending a bull market.For example, major hacking attacks may hit market confidence, but past cases have shown that they have little impact on Bitcoin prices:
“We believe that hackers can curb or end the Bitcoin bull market only in extreme cases. When Bitfinex was stolen in 2016, the price was barely affected.”
In addition, the distribution of tokens of Mt.Gox and bankruptcy platform are both rapidly absorbed by market demand, and the liquidation of 80,000 Bitcoins in July 2025 only caused the price to fluctuate by 4%.
It is reported that Coinbase holds about 10% of the Bitcoin supply, which may bring centralized risks.However, ETF issuers have begun to diversify their custody options, and under the current US government, which is actively integrating Bitcoin into financial policies, the probability of custody assets being seized is low.
Although the macro crash may trigger short-term volatility, the report expects Bitcoin will still outperform commodities and inflation in the long run.
The report completely broke with the 2015 view that it recommended to allocate a small amount of altcoins, and instead recommended holding only Bitcoin, avoiding dispersing funds to projects that are “far inferior to Bitcoin” that lack the network effects, security models and currency purity of Bitcoin.
The author compared the role of Bitcoin to the underlying protocol of the Internet, believes that it is a single dominant protocol, and predicts that competitors such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will gradually lose their correlation.
Tuur Demeester specifically pointed out that“Long-term value store” demand is the core engine of Bitcoin’s current and future growth.This demand is driven by multiple factors: sustained inflation, fiscal deficits, loss of bonds’ risk aversion status for decades, a decline in real estate hedging appeal, and capital rotation towards assets with high liquidity and low risk to counterparty.
After El Salvador designated Bitcoin as a fiat currency in 2021, the United States has accelerated its adoption under the Trump administration’s pro-bitcoin policy, including the establishment of national strategic bitcoin reserves, the passage of supportive legislation such as the GENIUS Act, and the rapid popularization of Bitcoin spot ETFs (currently holding about 1.4 million BTC).
The report notes that U.S. radical moves are pushing other countries to explore their own bitcoin strategies: “These strong supportive attitudes are starting to trigger a global ripple effect.”
Regarding how much Bitcoin investors should allocate, the report believes that factors such as risk tolerance and belief strength should be considered.According to the report, 5% of the configuration can be used as “insurance” for systemic risks; increasing to 10% is regarded as a speculative hedge in a diversified portfolio; 20%-50% of the configuration indicates that holders have a strong belief and regard it as a “early retirement” strategy.
In terms of hosting, the report believes that collaborative multi-signature setting is the best choice to balance autonomous control and operational safety, especially suitable for new entrants.
Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research believe that Bitcoin’s current bull market is far from over, and institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds and firm beliefs of holders have laid the foundation for potential historic gains.
It is currently a “medium cycle”, not a peak.If Bitcoin fulfills its promise of store of value, it may redefine its position in the global financial system in the coming years.
