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Volatility is a gift from Satoshi Nakamoto to believers, the last chance for ordinary people to counterattack
“In the entire crypto economy, a wave of innovation is emerging”Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategyRecently, the comments were made in a Bloomberg interview.When asked about the future trend of Bitcoin, he predicted firmly:“Bitcoin will always outperform the S&P 500 in the infinite future!”
Behind this sentence is the largest Bitcoin enterprise holderA trillion-level faith endorsement.
Why dare to say “infinite future”?The super turn of politics and capital
Just at the Prague Bitcoin Conference in June this year, Saylor sets the ultimate target price of BitcoinFrom $13 million to $21 million (2046).The forecast soared by $8 million in just one year. Where did you get the confidence?
The political black swan has become a white swan.Saylor bluntly pointed out:Trump’s November 2024 victoryA new era of pro-bitcoin politics has begun.Once regarded as a fantasy, the “U.S. established strategic Bitcoin reserves” is now becoming a reality.The legislative level is full of fire:
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The Genius Act
Lay the legal foundation for stablecoins
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Digital Asset Market Clear Act
Clear out the fuzzy areas of supervision
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The Bitcoin Act
Grant Bitcoin national strategic position
When the White House publicly declares that it will becomeThe world’s Bitcoin superpower“When this currency revolution has received the strongest political endorsement.
Data crush: Bitcoin’s “golden inequality” is forming
7,200,000% vs 306%——This is the comparison of the returns of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 in the past 14 years.The gap is more than 20,000 times!Even if you only look at the performance in the past two years, Bitcoin173% rate of returnIt is also far exceeding the S&P 500’s 29%.What is more subversive is Saylor’s proposal of “Equity Cost Theory”:
“There is only one return rate of assets in the world (56%) that can continue to outperform the cost of equity (13%), and that is Bitcoin. Companies’ equity exchange for Bitcoin is not gambling, but a wise choice to create value for shareholders.”
This explains why listed companies hold a number of coinsFrom 60 to 160.When Boya Interactive achieved a 400% share price surge with 2,641 Bitcoins, and when Metaplanet’s market value soared due to Bitcoin strategy, capital voting with its feet has become a trend.
The King of Positions: Strategy’s “permanent motion machine” coin hoarding
While other companies are still buying tentatively, Strategy has made coin hoarding into precision machines:
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Latest holdings: 628,791 BTC
(Accounting for 3% of the circulation)
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Total value exceeds US$71 billion
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Increased holdings by 21,021 in a single week
(cost US$2.46 billion)
The more you rise, the more you buy, is Saylor’s crazy logic.Just as Bitcoin approached its all-time high of $120,000, he stillAverage price of US$117,526 is being sold, setting the second highest buying price in the company’s history.
What supports this “permanent motion machine” isInnovative financing:
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Issuance of four securities products (including preferred stock “Stretch”)
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Recognize $14 billion in unrealized gains using accounting rules changes
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Continuous blood transfusion of Bitcoin reserves through convertible bonds and other tools
Volatility Paradox: The Easter Eggs that Satoshi left for ordinary people
Faced with the question of “Bitcoin fluctuations too much”, Saylor gave an amazing interpretation:
“Volatility is a gift from Satoshi Nakamoto to believers. If Bitcoin has no volatility, the powerful will monopolize it at a high price, and ordinary people will never have a day to turn over.”
Current Bitcoin volatility has been from the early stages80%-100% dropped to about 50%.As the options market is improved and the banking system is adopted, volatility will continue to converge – but this is exactlyThe last window for ordinary people to get on the bus at a low price.
When MARA Holdings lost $530 million in a single quarter due to currency price fluctuations, it still insisted on “Complete HODL strategy“When mining companies collectively transform into vertically integrated energy companies to reduce costs, professional players are paving the way for Changniu.
Never wait for Bitcoins below 100,000?
The market is forming a cruel consensus:Bitcoin may no longer have traditional bear market.Even if the callback is called, the amplitude will be much smaller than that of the historical cycle.
$100,000 is the new bottom——This is the cost line of mining enterprises, the institutional position building line, and the strategic defense line supported by political will.
When 99.8% of global capital has not yet awakened (bitcoin accounts for only 0.2% of global wealth), and when central banks still keep Bitcoin out (91 central banks have zero allocation), the monetary revolution has just ignited the fuse.
Missing the opportunity is the biggest risk.As the industry warns: “Being trapped can be unconstrained, and missing out on time may be missed for the rest of your life.” When Bitcoin is really as Saylor predicts$21 million,NowThe difference between buying 110,000 or 120,000 will be insignificant.
The dialectics of “get-in-the-car” for ordinary people
When Strategy uses preferred stock to build Bitcoin reserves, when MARA achieves green mining through wind power and shale gas, professional players are buildingA moat that ordinary people can hardly replicate.
But ordinary investors can still take advantage of the situation:
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Fixed investment index products
Share the dividends of institutional growth
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Allocation of mining company stocks
Capture the dual benefits of Bitcoin + energy
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Stick to self-hosting of wallets
Master real asset sovereignty
Bitcoin duality is emerging: When US stocks rise, it is a risky asset, and when gold rises, it is a safe-haven asset.When the two attributes complete the final fusion, it is the time for the reconstruction of the fiat currency world order.
As Saylor declared at the Prague Conference:Satoshi’s flame is now unstoppable.The network is unstoppable.“When state capital and technological innovation resonate, the energy of this monetary revolution has just begun to be released.
