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Author: Marcel Pechman, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by: Tao Zhu, Bitchain Vision
ETH price has climbed above $1,700 after 16-day selling pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainty and a sharp decline in on-chain activity.Despite the rebound, Ethereum has performed 23% lower than the overall altcoin market so far this year.
Some traders claim that ETH will usher in a bull market by providing a “true” decentralized and license-free financial system, but is that true?
Unlike competitors such as Solana, TRON, BNB, etc., Ethereum is one of the few mainstream cryptocurrencies that failed to hit record highs in 2025.
Some critics believe that abandoning proof-of-work mining will eliminate Ethereum’s once competitive advantage over its competitors.
Decline of Ethereum fees indicates weakness in Ethereum prices
Ultimately, Ethereum may outperform its competitors even in a short time, and despite the lack of strong fundamentals to support lasting price growth, influencers who call for the “bottom” will celebrate their forecasts.However,Given that Ethereum expenses have dropped by 95% since January, the probability of an immediate surge of ETH seems to be low.
Ethereum network daily fee.Source: DefiLlama
The low demand for data processing on the Ethereum network has led to inflation in ETH because the built-in destruction mechanism is not enough to balance the issuance of new coins to pay for the pledge rewards.
Despite a clear lead in total locked value (TVL), traders generally have no interest in this metric as it does not translate into higher demand for the Ethereum network or increased scarcity for ETH.
therefore,Even if Ethereum fundamentals improve, optimism among ETH holders is declining, while competitors (particularly Solana and XRP investors) are hopeful about their spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) being approved in the U.S.Currently, spot ETFs in the United States are only available for Bitcoin and ETH, so additional issuances may reduce the potential demand for altcoins from institutions.
What is even more worrying is that between April 21 and April 23, US-listed spot Ether ETFs experienced a net outflow of $10 million, while similar BTC tools experienced record inflows.
History shows that ETH price increases rarely last long
Historical evidence shows thatCompared with competitors, ETH’s performance is not long-lasting, which reduces the possibility of ETH’s continued rise.
Ethereum’s market share in altcoins.Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
For example, when ETH price fell below $1,100, its market share in altcoin capital reached a low in June 2022, about 26.5%.After a rapid rise to $2,000 in August 2022, the momentum gradually weakened and ETH fell below $1,200 less than three months later.This sudden adjustment may have frustrated many investors as they had to wait eight months for ETH to recover $2,000 in April 2023.
A similar situation occurred in April 2021, when Ethereum’s altcoin market share fell to the bottom of 26.8%.Since then, ETH price climbed from $2,100 to $4,200 in May 2021, but fell below $2,000 in the following month.Similarly, traders who buy near the top of the cycle must wait for six months to recover their investment.This history taught Ethereum traders to make profits quickly, thus reducing the chances of hitting record highs.
It’s hard to determine what triggered the previous Ethereum bull market, especially when the narrative shifted from practical tokens to NFT markets, artificial intelligence, Meme coins and more recently RWA tokenization.While some influentials believe ETH is strong, others warn that ETH may fall another 15% compared to Bitcoin’s performance.
at last,Historical evidence does not support the continued rise in ETH prices.Even if it bottoms out relative to the broader altcoin market capitalization.
