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Author: Yashu Gola Source: cointelegraph Translation: Shan Oppa, Bitchain Vision
Ethereum native tokensETHIt has entered the oversold area many times recently, but it has not shown any signs of bottoming out.The current trading situation is similar to a similar situation in history, with the market structure suggesting that ETH may repeat this trend in the second to third quarters of 2024.
Ethereum has repeatedly broken down, and there may still be room for downside
On the 3-day K-line chart, the relative strength index (RSI) of ETH is still below 30, which usually indicates a potential rebound opportunity.
However, historical data show that after ETH entered the oversold area, it failed to form a clear bottom, but continued to fall, indicating that the market is still dominated by bears.
Since mid-2024, ETH/BTC trading pairs have experienced a decline in market conditions many times, with the declines respectively13%, 21%, 25% and 19.5%, showing a chain of downward trend.In addition, both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) are on a downward trend, further confirming the lack of upward action energy in the market.
X Platform Market Analyst@CarpeNoctomIt is pointed out that negative price performance of ETH/BTC trading pairs has not yet formedBullish divergence(i.e., prices hit a new low but RSI forms higher lows), further weakening market confidence.
ETH ETF capital outflow and on-chain data show further weakness
The “cursed” downward trend of ETH/BTC is particularly prominent in the entire crypto market, especially in theUS Spot ETH ETF Capital OutflowandNegative data on the chainaspect.
In March 2024, net inflows of spot Ethereum ETFs fell9.8%, down to$2.54 billion.By contrast, net inflows of spot Bitcoin ETFs only declined2.35%, still$35.74 billion.
At the same time, the Ethereum main networkAverage daily Gas fee(calculated by median) has dropped to1.12 GWEI,compared toDeclined by nearly 50 times in the same period in 2023.
Data analysis platformNansen“Although ETH ushered in a second round of gains at the end of 2024, mainnet activity (measured by Gas consumption) has noted in its latest report.”
Nansen believes that the decline in main network transaction activity is mainly due toMove funds and users to Solana and Layer 2 networks (L2s)affect and indicateETH has a risk/reward ratio that is inferior to BTC and some altcoins in the undervalued segment, so keep a cautious bearish position.
In addition, weak demand for ETH compared to BTC is also reflected inFutures trading volumeaspect:Bitcoin futures trading volumeRecovered since February 23 lows32%, arrived as of March 18$57 billion.Ethereum transaction volumeIt basically stagnated and there was no significant growth (data source: Glassnode).
ETH/BTC may fall by 15%
The ETH/BTC trading pair is forming on the daily chartBear flag shape, This pattern usually occurs in the consolidation stage after a sharp decline, showingConvergence trend line.
From a technical point of view, once the bear flag pattern falls belowLower rail support line，价格通常会下跌Average to the previous decline.According to this rule, the downward target price of ETH/BTC in April is0.01968 BTC, falling further than the current level15%.
In addition, ETH/BTC trading pairsMuch lower thanThe 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), and these two key moving averages are stillSteep downward trend, indicating that the market is still inContinuing bear market structure.
Although the risk of decline remains, if ETH/BTCBreak through the upper track resistance of the bear flag pattern, and successfully50-day EMA conversion to support, then it is possibleInvalidationWith the current bearish trend, the market is expected to rebound.
