jakiro
An overseas player recently exposed his recent experience online:
He said that he lost everything in this transaction of LIBRA tokens issued by the Argentine president.He has reaped a lot of rewards from the meme coin in front to the Trump coin a while ago, but all of this has been cleared on LIBRA.
In order to make up for this situation, he is planning to sell off his offline physical assets and then go to the chain to get back everything he has lost.
I have read too many such stories and have shared them with you many times in past articles.But this time I saw such a story, my thoughts changed a little.It’s not that the conclusion has changed, but that the way of thinking has changed a little. Now I have a more rational framework for this type of problem.
During the Spring Festival, I saw a very interesting video that used the large number theorem and expected value regression to explain many interesting phenomena in casinos.
For example, why will gamblers lose if they continue to play for a long time?
Why are the most inconspicuous slot machines in many casinos the most profitable and stable money-making machines in casinos?
Although I am a science student and probability statistics are also a compulsory course when I study, this is the first time I have seen cases where probability statistics are explained so thoroughly in casinos with such simple and easy-to-understand words.
So today I will share with you the mystery.
Let’s first look at an example of tossing a coin.
We all know that the expected probability of throwing a coin to the front is 50%.But if we operate in different ways, we will see results that are very different from what we imagined.
If we throw a coin twice in a row, we will find that many people can throw the front twice in a row.In this case, many people will habitually believe that the third time will still throw the front.
If we throw this coin 4 times in a row, fewer people will be able to throw the front four times in a row.In this case, there are fewer people who think that the fifth throw will still throw the front.
If we throw this coin 6, 8, 10, 100 times in a row, the number of people who can throw the positive will be sharply reduced, and the number of people who habitually believe that the positive will be thrown again next time will also be sharply reduced.
As the number of times we tossed coins increases, we finally found that the probability of throwing the front is basically stable at 50%, rather than the probability that sometimes reaches 100% as you see when throwing twice or 4 times.
This is the large number theorem (the number of times the coin is tossed more and more) and the expected value regression (the probability of positive occurrence regressing to 50%) are at work.
If we apply this principle to a casino, we will find some interesting phenomena:
If a gambler only plays once and no longer participates in the future, even if the gambler has only 10% chance of winning in this gamble, the dealer’s final advantage is not very obvious, or in other words, the gambler’s final disadvantage is not very good.obvious.
But if a gambler continues to play unlimitedly, even if the gambler has a 49% chance of winning in this gamble, the dealer’s ultimate advantage will be obvious and the gambler will eventually lose.
Based on this principle, the casino will try to design some games when designing gameplay. Even if the gambler’s expectations of winning are higher (as long as it is not higher than the casino), it is necessary to find a way to let the gambler play endlessly.
Slot machines are the best representative.The bets are small in each game, and you don’t feel sorry for losing, and you can win from time to time, so the gambler often sits on the machine and can’t get up.As long as you can’t get up, losing all your money will be basically a destined ending.
Switch to the meme coins in the crypto ecosystem.
The development of this round of meme coins has become less and less touching stories to tell, basically only emotional games and trading behind them.
In such a game, retail investors obviously do not have an advantage.
If you just take part in such a project as a game, it doesn’t matter how happy you play it.
But if you take part in such a game as a long-term profit method, and if you are addicted to it and play for a long time, even if you don’t lose everything but you can still win from time to time, the final outcome will definitely be like playing a slot machine, boiling a frog in warm water.The assets will be finally cleared.
