TRUMP and its impact: Is the market entering a fanatic stage?

Author: TPan Source: Web3 with TPan Translation: Shan Oppa, Bitchain Vision

Friday, January 17, 2025 at 7:30 pm.My wife and I arrived earlyAdam Ray’s Dr. Phil live show,The performance will begin at 8 p.m.

I’m proud of myself becauseAt 6 o’clock, I mute my phone and haven’t checked the message.After arriving at the show, I finally had time to watch the notification and updates on X (original Twitter).

On X, everyone is discussing one topic:

Did Trump really release a meme coin?Is this a scam?!

Everyone is running like a headless fly in the digital world, and I am preparing to enjoy the upcoming feast of laughter.

Seeing tech detectives like @cygaar share their findings, I think it’s worth a try.So, I bought someTRUMP.But because the performance is about to begin, I can only suppress my curiosity and not check my phone.

Apart from the positive news about cryptocurrencies over the past few days, there are only these similar cases that I can think of in my mind:

•Bored Ape Yacht Clubof”Fuck It. Mutants Saturday” Post;

•Yuga LabsaboutOthersideannouncement (also on a Friday night);

•AzukiAnnounceBeanz AirdropWhen “Check your wallet“information.

To be honest, these cases pale in comparison to today’s events.This is the President of the United States, and we are discussing him!

Memecoins

Before continuing, I would like to mention that I write articles about meme coins from time to time, especially as this trend continues and grows, the frequency of reporting is also increasing.

Whether we like them or hate them, meme coins have become an unnegligible phenomenon.They are the agents that attract attention, can achieve ridiculous and volatile valuations, and can even make empty wallets rich overnight – of course, it can also make the rich poor overnight.

With the help ofpump.funFor such a meme coin issuing platform, it only takes a few minutes to create a meme coin.Memecoin growth has exploded since these platforms were launched less than a year ago.

The first-level impact of TRUMP

Although Meme Coin has attracted a large number of new users,TRUMPThe phenomenon brought about is completely another level:

• arriveSaturday night, more than400,000 new usersJoin Moonshot.This is a popular mobile app dedicated to buying meme coins and is also a cooperative issuance platform for the token.Apart from Trump himself, Moonshot is probably the biggest winner.

•Moonshot’s daily active users (DAU) exceeds 1 million.

•Moonshot ranks fifth on iOS hot download list, its download volume can even be comparable to the VPN apps that have surged due to the TikTok ban.

•Crypto.com ApplicationTo improve App Store Optimization (ASO) effect, the app title was changed to include “TRUMP” and the screenshot was updated to highlightTRUMP and MELANIA Tokens(Yes, there is also a meme coin related to Melania, but we won’t discuss it here, haha).

•ChainalysisA report on TRUMP and MELANIA token holders has been released, with some interesting statistics:

•About 50% of TRUMP/MELANIA token holders have never purchased Solana’s altcoins before(Solana blockchain tokens that exclude $SOL and stablecoins).

•Nearly half of buyers created wallets on the day they purchased the tokens.

•The vast majority of wallets holding TRUMP/MELANIA are worth less than $100, which shows that retail activity accounts for a large proportion.

There is no doubt thatTRUMPIt has attracted millions of new users we have been calling for, albeit in a way that many may not like.

Regardless of our views on Trump or meme coins, I hope everyone can look at this moment with a “half-full glass” mentality.As I mentioned in “Meme Coin Super (User Drainage) Cycle”:

NBA Top ShotIt attracted a large number of new users in February 2021, with more than 80,000 independent buyers in the month alone.Many users eventually turned to NFT, some of whom later became entrepreneurs, creators or contributors in the ecosystem.I am attracted by speculation and possible big-money opportunities, as are many of the people I have met in the past few years.

Whether it is love or hate,Meme Coin is introducing a new group of users and strata to our world, which may verify the assumption of Meme Coin’s super-cycle.

• Some people use crypto wallets for the first time (luckily, the user boot experience is much better now than in the past).

• Some people are beginning to learn the concepts of slippage and token exchange.

• Some people may lose all their money and confirm that cryptocurrencies are indeed a “scam”.

• And some people will stay and begin to wonder what else is happening in this strange world.

This is the beginning of the Meme Coin Super (User Drainage) cycle.

Secondary impact of TRUMP

The secondary effect of Trump’s launch of TRUMP is both worrying and fascinating.

Worrisome aspects

Now, a head of state officially launched a meme coin, which is equivalent to opening all the “Pandora’s Box” in the world of meme coin.Or in the words of “meme trenches”, this is already “crime szn”.

Events in the past few days include:

1.Cuba Ministry of Foreign AffairsThe official account posted 4 meme coins and then rugged (run away with the money).It is not clear whether this is an internal or a hacker, it may be the latter.

2.Brazilian politician Marco FelicianoThe account was hacked and a scam meme coin was announced.

3.Catholic News AgencyThe account was hacked and a scam meme coin was released.

4.Prayer pastor at Trump’s inaugurationA meme coin was received and publicly supported, and the proceeds were donated to his church.

5. Rumors spreadMrBeastMeme coins will be launched, and he has to publicly declare that he will not create any meme coins.

The token economic model of TRUMP meme coins has also attracted attention (relevant information is shared on the website):

The supply in circulation in the first 3 months was 20%,80% of the supply will be released monthly within the remaining 21 months.

No one knows how the price of TRUMP will change, but by April, “Creators & CIC Digital” may start putting tokens on the open market and selling them to unsuspecting buyers and coin holders.

Based on these trends, we are likely to see more hacking, fake “official” releases and scams flood the market.Everyone must be vigilant!

Interesting follow-up development

on the other hand,TRUMPThe launch also sparked some interesting dynamics:

1. Several asset management companies have applied to launch the Meme Coin ETF (it is not yet certain whether it will be approved).

2. Trump was asked about his meme coins and responded to it.

3.Mark CubanCriticize TRUMP’s predatory token economic model and propose a similar model that suggests token proceeds to be used to pay US Treasury bonds.

4. The founder of Vine has launchedVINEMeme Coin, a social video app that was once the predecessor of TikTok, was acquired by Twitter in 2013 and closed in 2016.He used this to echo Elon Musk’s interest in resuming the app and suggested a surprise will be released on Vine’s birthday.

The last two points are particularly noteworthy, as we see some creators start to think about the potential uses of meme coins beyond attracting attention.

From the traditional model—

“Attract attention → Push up the price → Sell to make a profit”

Transform to a new path:

•Mark Cuban: Attract attention → Push up prices → Use earnings to reduce U.S. Treasury bonds.

•VINE: Attract attention → Push up the price → ???

Use attention purposefully

What new uses might be brought about if the “legal glove” of meme coins are removed, and individuals or entities can use it more creatively?

A simple answer is: we can reuse NFT models, including promised access (such as token gating), decision-making power, and reward mechanisms.

BalajiA hypothetical scenario about TRUMP was shared over the weekend, combining its massive market cap with Trump’s huge audience base (excerpts below):

11)One way to solve the incentive problem is that Trump airdrops some TRUMP tokens to every U.S. citizen.However, he might be able to send emails to every Trump supporter in his personal name, offering free TRUMP.

12)Specifically, he could notify 72 hours in advance so that even Democrats would register his personal mailing list to get airdrops.

13)Is this legal?Obviously, it is legal for politicians to send fundraising request emails to voters.But as far as I know, no politician has tried to “gift money” through personal airdrops, especially such a large-scale airdrop.

14)By current valuation, Trump can issue $100 worth of locked TRUMP to 77 million Trump voters by airdrop, with a total cost of only $7.7 billion, while the assets were worth zero two days ago.He could even give out $500 per person, still having over $20 billion in remaining assets.

15)Yes, this will cost Trump some assets.But if it is necessary to join his mailing list to claim the tokens, and if the airdrop can be achieved without capital gains tax, it will “recover the cost” by making his supporter base more fanatical.

16)This may even win him the necessary political support, thus completely dismantling the Democratic network of interests.Basically, by joining Trump’s mailing list and supporting his crypto policy, you get a benefit similar to “basic income” (UBI).

17)If 77 million Americans also benefit from TRUMP, the allegations of conflict of interest disappear.This will be a new type of social contract, a personal relationship between the president and the citizen.

This assumption clearly changes the nature of incentive mechanisms, especially when audience sizes reach thousands or even millions.This model may open up a whole new path for the use of meme coins.

at present,The potential of meme coins in this new environment is unclear, but emerging ideas and themes will soon surface.

Has the cyclical fanatic phase begun?

If you ask me, I would say Friday night seems to herald the beginning of the cyclical fanatic phase.But just like the laws of these things, no one can predict how long the music will be, especially with many positive regulatory changes this week.

So, maybe we are still some distance away from true fanaticism.

Here are some signs that some “silly seasons” (referring to the stages of highly speculative and irrational markets) have arrived, and this has been detonated by the launch of Trump’s meme coin:

1.On Tuesday, 8 of the top 10 financial apps with downloads were related to cryptocurrencies..

2. The “Extreme Speculator” in the crypto circle began to take their parents to the Moonshot app (which is also quite cool!).

3. On the Discord server, I caught such an interesting conversation: