jakiro
Source: Dante from the edge of Wangchuan
If he really only aims to “cut leeks”… that would be great.
Today I want to talk about the upcoming Trump, who chose to issue a high-profile Memecoin named after him on the eve of his office. As seen in public reports, the currency soared by more than 20,000% in a short period of time.The total market value is over US$20 billion.
To be honest, it took me a whole day to be sure that this is not the Fake News that Lao Chuan often talks about, because I think this matter is really nonsense. A US president-elect chose to release his own high-profile eve of his taking office.Miyin coins?This smashing effect is no less than that of a nun with both virtue and art and devout faith, who chose to go to the market to make a small movie before being named a saint by the Roman Church.I once doubted whether Trump was not ready to do it.
But after careful consideration, he felt that he might indeed have his own plan.But if this plan is really successful, it is likely to push the future of the United States and even all mankind into an unknown and high-risk abyss.
Please allow me to use a long article to analyze the logic of Trump’s doing this and the price and risks he will pay.
Before I officially start writing the article, I want to apologize and explain to the two groups of readers who will definitely offend this article.
The first wave of readers are die-hard Sichuan fans in China.
If you are my old reader, you should know that I am an author who is always friendly and gentle to Trump in the Jianzhong self-media circle. Many of my first group of readers were Trump’s sympathizers and even hardcore supporters..But I think that sympathy with Trump and support for Trump can be done, but it must not be a personality cult. If you support Trump to the end, you will create a “what Trump affirms, we will firmly support anything; if Trump opposes,We will firmly criticize.”So what is the essential difference between your Tingchuan and the various extreme personality cult ideas you hate and oppose?It is not only a deviation from the liberal conservative concept of value, but also the greatest betrayal of modern society’s democracy and legal concepts.
What we believe in and follow is ideas and systems, and we will never be and should not be individuals.This truth is even higher than all ideological disputes.Those who do not recognize it are not modern.In the Water Margin world, Brother Song Jiang killed someone if he asked him to kill someone. Li Kui, who asked him to kill a child, would chop a child if he asked him to chop a child, would chop a child with a black silk Li Kui was more suitable for his image.
The second wave of readers is probably the legendary “money tycoons”.
In this article, I will tend to deny the positive value of meme coins (note that it is just meme coins, not all cryptocurrencies) that have.
But even if I say so cautiously, I guess there will still be people who play coins to come and criticize me – dare you say that?You don’t understand economics at first glance!
There is no way, I have already boarded the ship, is there any interest?I generally do not deny the value of the meme coins. Just as I generally do not advise my friends who come back from a certain place in the southwest to buy specialties such as “silver comb” or “chicken blood jade” at a high price, and tell them directly: This is a broken thingNot worth much money.
But I still feel magical about this inevitable accusation – when did it start?Has the recognition of meme coins, altcoins, and air coins become a symbol of understanding economics?
I think this accusation is a typical logical fallacy.If you don’t play, you will definitely not understand?According to this idea, a person who criticizes drug addicts can also be characterized as not knowing how to enjoy it, and a person who criticizes prostitution can be questioned whether he is an eunuch. If the believers of the People’s Temple or Aum Shinri come back with their corpses, they will be very powerful.But those who criticize and condemn them for killing innocent people and commit suicide “have no idea what the true god is.”
I may have said this heavily, but I want to emphasize that any effective discussion is not achieved by labeling. In this article, I will list the reasons why my evaluation of Mystery tends to be negative overall.If someone can refute these reasons with a reasonable and well-founded basis, please leave a message to refute.
But I don’t accept any hats that say “you don’t understand”.
The two most easily labeled hats in the world are: one is “You don’t understand” and the other is “You have ulterior motives” – in other words, it is the legendary “it’s not stupid and bad.”
I always doubt and always like people who say this. In fact, they are both stupid and bad.
Okay, the armor stacking is over. If you accept my two cognitions above, then I will take you on a journey of thinking below.
1. Meme coins are not coins
Here we must first give some popular science to friends who don’t understand this industry at all. Although the Memecoin issued by Trump this time is a digital cryptocurrency as Bitcoin.But the issuance logic of the two is fundamentally different.
To put it in an image metaphor, Bitcoin is more like gold in the real world. Its total issuance is based on its mathematical model being bound by natural mathematical laws, that is, even Satoshi Nakamoto, who first proposed and issued Bitcoin., he could not decide how much Bitcoin is issued. The emergence of Bitcoin is determined by countless “mining machines” that mine through computing power in the world.
The meme coins are not the case. Strictly speaking, the meme coins are not even worthy of being called a currency. They are just a digital private stamp, or digital commemorative medal.The exact amount of meme coins is issued initially depends entirely on the issuing “coin owner” himself, who is the only “mine” and maker of meme coins.
In fact, the meme coin was just a fool-like joke from Internet geeks at the beginning. For example, the mascot of Dogecoin issued by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in 2013 is the famous one.The emoticon of Shiba Inu is almost obviously telling you that we are just joking, and those who are willing to buy this coin are giving money to our creativity.
However, later in the Internet circle’s “nothing can’t be speculated” madness, a very small number of meme coins unexpectedly continued their transaction value.
To this day, the issuance and flow of meme coins are still highly similar to online gambling. Coin issuers and traders need to exchange US dollars for a certain number of solana (a voucher) on a certain website to register their memes.The currency wallet can then start trading or issuing coins. The website will not effectively review the coin issuer’s qualifications for issuing coins.
So theoretically, everyone (even if you don’t need to be a human being, even if you really bring a Shiba Inu) can issue “coins” on this platform. The value of meme coins after issuance depends entirely on how many people are willing to pay how much money they are willing to pay.Buy it – in other words, the value of the meme coin depends entirely on how large a fan group it can establish a “value consensus” and then on who his promoter is, it is a purely famous celebrityMeans of cashing out arbitrage.
Does it sound like meme coins are not like a currency, but more like signature photos, private stamps or commemorative medals sent by idols to fans in the past?Yes, let go of the fancy technical packaging that floats on the surface, the essence of meme coins is such a thing.It is different from Bitcoin, and it has nothing to do with the underlying technology and decentralization.Even the issuance mechanism of meme coins is exactly the opposite of Bitcoin. It is more centralized than traditional currencies and is centered on its issuers.
It is very important to draw key points, and it should be used later.
It is also because of this that on the sol chain platform where Trump announced the issuance of coins this time, the number of rice coins announced every year is millions, and it can survive the first month of issuance of coins and still have transaction value (that is, your handThere are no more than 10,000 people who want to sell this meme coins.99.9999% meme coins are essentially a fool game and online gambling that can pass the flowers.
To sum up, compared with real currencies, meme coins do not have any qualifications to become a real currency.
First, there is no reserve when it is issued.Although a few meme coin owners have promised to exchange one-to-one for the holder if their meme coin falls below a certain issue price, no fool has done so far, and all the coin issuers will eventuallyI chose to cash out and run away.
Secondly, it does not have a central bank to effectively control and supervise.
Whether there will be a “rat-standard” problem of meme coins, the coin owner is ready to cash out and run away completely, it depends purely on the coin owner’s personal mood and conscience. In the face of huge temptation of interests, there has been no issuer of meme coins so far.Those who can last for more than three years and fail to completely cash out.Facts have proved that human consensus and conscience have not improved to the point where the central bank’s regulatory system can also be “decentralized”, and a “gentleman agreement” between an internet celebrity and his fans can maintain the value of a currency.Don’t take the human nature after taking the postgraduate entrance examination.
Finally, and most importantly, it is not naturally scarce like traditional currencies, or even Bitcoin.
The issuance of traditional currencies must be anchored to their reserves, and excessive issuance will lead to hyperinflation.The number of Bitcoin issuances is anchored in mathematics. Unless God makes 1+1 no longer equal to 2, no one can make Bitcoin super-issued.
But where is the scarcity guaranteed for meme coins?No, it all depends on the mood of the coin owner.
For example, Trump announced this time that his Trump coins will be issued 200 million first, and then 800 million will be issued one after another, with a total of 1 billion. This amount depends purely on his own mood and character.
This is why most meme coin owners choose to cash out and run away at certain nodes – human nature cannot withstand the postgraduate entrance examination without rigid constraints.
And I think what King Ming said this time is considered a clear card. Pay attention to his tweets. I send this kind of coin to “celebrate” our victory.
What is the one that will be released during celebration?Signature photo, commemorative medal?
When do you want to hear that a country has issued a lot of fiat currency to celebrate something?
Even if there is, such a country is basically almost done.
So meme coins are not currency at all. Its altcoins and counterfeit coins actually reveal their essence.
But with this analysis, a problem arises-Why did Trump, who should have an insight into the attributes of meme coins, insist on issuing meme coins?
Mr. Chuan, who is not short of money, will not just try to “cut another wave of leeks” and cheat some money like those low-end internet celebrities?If this is the case, he should have been cut again in four years.
Of course, he is not.People are very ambitious—
After a few years, when Americans think about this, they may hope: Mr. Chuan, you really just wanted to cheat some money to cut leeks… That’s good!
2. Does Trump just want to “cut leeks”?
Here we need to dispel a rumor for Lao Chuan first. After this incident, many people in the Internet circle of Jianzhong have rumored that “Trump issued coins, made a huge profit (or even “cashed”) xxx billion US dollars” and so on.This statement is inaccurate, and even ignores the facts in order to attack Trump.
Whether it is US$24 billion or the latest US$100 billion, it is all about the total market value of the currently issued “Trump Coins”. If we use common sense of stocks, we will know that the total market value cannot be directly equivalent to “cashing out”How much does it cost to make a big profit?If you have a million, you don’t count if you have a hair.If Trump really intends to follow some instant money-issuing internet celebrities and cash out all the “Trump coins” in his hands, it is similar to stocks “smashing the market”, and the value of Trump’s currency will quickly shrink and fall.His arbitrage space will shrink significantly along with his own credibility. Although the amount of money that will eventually be cashed out will be huge, it will be far lower than the current market value of Trump’s currency.
And to be honest, Lao Chuan has his own industry, not the kind of poor ordinary internet celebrity who is eager to make a name for money. He attributes his reason for issuing coins to how much pension money he earns for himself, which is ridiculous-According to statistics in 2024, Trump’s total assets reached US$3.2725 billion.
May I ask, how different is the rumored difference between the $24 billion he “makes a lot” this time?
So it is superficial and ridiculous to say that Trump “makes money” hundreds of billions.
The ridiculousness is similar to the kind of old rural farmers who imagine that they will become emperor in the future, so “I will take care of the entire village.”
With the heart of a low-end internet celebrity, Mr. Duchuan is a man of a treacherous man.Very funny.
Then why did Lao Chuan, who was not short of money, send coins again?
I think, based on the current information, what he pictured should be-Kidnapping or privatizing Republican campaign funds.
Campaign funds are the blood of the operation of the two-party system in the United States. The Republican and Democratic parties in the United States are fighting around, and in essence, they are actually all about money.
The just-passed 2024 US election broke the record once again and became the most expensive election in American history. The two parties spent a total of US$15.9 billion.This order of magnitude is actually the size that the market value of “Trump Coin” can be truly “used”.
But the wool comes from the sheep. The campaign funds of both parties are ultimately collected from voters or industrial giants who support themselves. However, how to collect, manage and spend the money has always been the decisive distribution of forces within the Republican and Democratic parties.The highlight of
Yao remembers that when Hillary and Trump were running for election in 2016, the Democratic Party had an intriguing internal scandal. Obama, who was about to step down, had a list of the main sponsors he participated in the election, according to the Democratic Party.According to traditional rules, Obama should hand over this crucial “list of funders” directly to “successor” Hillary during the campaign preparations.
But Obama didn’t do that!His choice was to hand over the list to the Democratic Federal General Party Headquarters, and then the party headed the list to Hillary.
This delayed a lot of things. Hillary lost to Trump that year and Obama was the only one who made up for it. The two of them were very unhappy later.
But why did Obama insist on doing this?This explains a lot.
Some people say that this reflects the long-term conflict between the Obama family and the Clinton family, and Obama is actually reluctant to endorse Hillary with his reputation.
But some people say that Obama’s move is an attempt to end the long-standing habit of major families within the Democratic Party that privately grant “fundraising rights” and secretly trade, and end the Democratic Party’s many banners with families, big bosses and factions.Very similar to the “godfather” tradition of the New York gangster.
But no matter what,Whoever controls the “fundraising right” and is the eldest brother, will be stuck to the lifeblood of the party’s candidates that cannot be selected this time.
This truth is common among the Republican and Democratic parties.
On the Republican side, after being betrayed by the Chinese Communist Party’s establishment party in 2021, one thing Trump, who made a comeback in 2024, has been trying to transform the traditional Republican Party into loyalty.His own MAGA party.And he was actually almost done last year.
The biggest sign of Trump’s success is that the campaign funds raised by the Republican Party in the 2024 election will no longer enter the Republican Party’s account as in the past, but will enter the private account of a Trump campaign team. What is the money for such campaigns?What strategy to use for publicity, who to invest money, and who to invest money, will be decided by Trump’s personal signature.
This change.This led to all Republican campaigns in the 2024 election, and there were no projects in which Trump believed that it was “unnecessary” and even sang against him.
It has to be said that his money is indeed smarter than the Republican establishment.
And you can imagine that if this model continues in the future, even if Trump is limited by his term of office in four years, the “successor” launched by the Republican Party must have come from Trump’s team, or “MAGA Party”.
But how to ensure that this “ideal future” is realized?
Perhaps the answer is—Trump currency.
We have analyzed the first part article. Meme coins (this word is too difficult to play, and will be called meme coins in the future) have no actual value. In the past, they have only been used to monetize the influence of Internet celebrities. “Cut another wave of leeks and run away.”
But when Trump comes to him, he may develop a different usage of meme coins—Trump may use it to “dilute” the voter’s support enthusiasm for the Republican Party that broke out in the past and that only broke out during the campaign, and transformed it into a personal, long-term support and worship of Trump.
Let’s talk about it in a simple way:
If you are a center-right or right-wing voter in the United States, agreeing with Republican ideas and basically agreeing with Trump’s claims, then your primary means of expressing support for Republicans and Trump in the past was to donate money to party accounts during the campaign.At most, register as a volunteer to get a canvassing vote.
But as soon as Trump’s Trump coin comes out, the situation has changed. As long as you have the enthusiasm of the right wing and want to shout “Great Meixing, King Trump!” or “Make America great again!”, you can log in to sol immediatelyChain, use the real money at hand to buy a few Trump coins, and then tell myself that I have used practical actions to support Sichuan!
In this way, this part of the support force is conveniently solidified by Trump’s currency.
And the enthusiasm of the right-wing American voters is also digested (or, more accurately, “energy accumulation”) in normal times.
But please note that the ultimate beneficiary of this digestion and energy storage is no longer the Republican party, but Trump himself.
Four years later, when the Republicans need to use this energy to organize their campaign, they will find it may be difficult to raise money again with traditional fundraising methods. Supporters will say, I have already bought Sichuan coins for money!By then, the Republican Party will have to beg for Trump, who has “stored energy” in advance, and has lost funds for the right-wing support of the United States.
And whether to give this money or not, who should I give it to?It depends on the expression of the “Huang Emperor”.
We can even make a more extreme assumption (although based on existing economic common sense, I currently think this assumption is too science fiction):
If Trump’s currency does not return to zero in four years like ordinary meme coins, but is still in high transaction value circulation.What will happen then?
Conclusion is that it may really become a “passing token” for the allocation of campaign funds within the US right-wing political group.——
For example, Lao Chuan, who is deeply in his words and deeds in a certain place, praised him.Good life is rewarded!Then Trump can give him tens of thousands of “Trump coins” to exchange for campaign funds with right-wing supporters, and he might be successfully elected as a member of parliament.
If this assumption really becomes reality, it means thatTrump will not only helm the financial power of the Republican Party in the four-year US presidential election, but also hold the financial power of lawmakers and governors in various states in the United States, and even the financial power of center-right media when promoting it.
What a terrible control it would be, its mobilization and dictatorship would be something that the United States has never had so far.
So Trump’s vision is vicious, as analyzed by the first part,Meme coins are essentially different from Bitcoin. They are not decentralized, but are more centralized than traditional currencies.It was precisely because of this that Trump picked it, which is currently almost a joke, and tried to fulfill his ambitions.
The ancient Roman emperor printed his avatar on gold coins, which was just a possession of the name of sovereignty over currency.In fact, the Roman emperor had no way to control or restrict the flow of political funds.
But once Trump issued the “Trump currency” once it is completed, it will really have an unprecedented terrorist control over American politics.
But,Any practice of strong ambition will always pay the price.
We have to ask, what is the price the United States will pay if Trump does this?
3. The “Marsian Stick” that alienates the United States
In the history of ancient Rome, there was a famous “Marsian Stick”. Historians said that it was Marsian Stick that pierced the transformation and alienation of Rome from a republic to an empire.
Rather, this history happened like this – ancient Rome originally pursued the civilian system of the unity of soldiers and farmers. Roman citizens usually farm and do business. Once a war broke out, they would leave their own business., bring your own weapons and food and pay to participate in defending the country.
However, as Rome’s war intensity and duration of confrontation with foreign races gradually increased and strengthened, the civilian system gradually could not adapt to the development of the war.So after the tragic Second Punic War and the Juguda War, the consul Marriott promoted the “Mallor Army Reform” named after him.
Generally speaking, the content of the Mallorian Army reform is that the original citizen conscripts were transformed into professional recruitment, which stipulated that all Roman citizens who were voluntarily and qualified, including those without property, could enlist in the army.In order to allocate funds from finance and taxation, the state handed over to the governors of each province or the wartime Dirks, who purchased or converted them into food and pay, and distributed them to their soldiers.
In the short term, the Mallorian army reform did greatly enhance the combat effectiveness of the Roman army, and Rome began to move towards a high-speed expansion.
But in the long run, a fatal change caused by the transformation of the Mallorian army to Rome was the qualitative change in the attributes of soldiers. They were no longer simple citizens who were concerned about their distant hometowns, their land and their wives and children, but became a group of generals or generals.Mercenaries who can do anything by giving money, giving food, and promising rewards.
The financial power structure used by Rome to maintain the republic has also changed – in the past, the civilians brought their own weapons, dry food to defend their country, and the entire financial system that supported the army was chaotic and scattered, but now they control the food and salary of soldiers and become their parents of food and clothing.The intensive financial power of the people became the governors of each province.
The soldiers even directly called the Governor “Dominus (Latin: Lord, Master)” and were absolutely loyal to him.
So the Governor was so big that he could not lose his head, so that the road that he had traveled across the Rubicon River like Caesar later, and returned to the Senate and became a lifelong Dik-pudded road was paved.
The name “Marsley Stick” appeared at this time. The soldiers tied all their pockets of pockets, including their supplies, military pay and spoils, to a stick and carried it.And jokingly called it “Marsley’s Stick”.
As citizens, the concerns of property were replaced, and the soldiers were loyal to the stick of Marriott and Dominus who provided food and clothing behind the stick.
This stick eventually pierced the fission of Roman history.
Compared with the past, we will find that the “Trump Coin” issued by Trump this time is likely to become the “Marschinese stick” that leverages the fission of the American history.
Originally, politicians like the president in the United States had a huge reputation and influence, but they could not be discounted immediately.
The president’s appeal requires the assistance of a complete set of political parties and pro-party media, foundations, and especially their respective financial systems to complete the mobilization of their supporters.Transform into political power for its use.
In this transformation process, the president’s appeal will be restricted by this series of intermediary tools. A large number of social elites will ask in the process of completing this mobilization for the president: Is the president’s call legal?Is it in line with American political traditions and norms?Is it in your own vital interests?
If it is not met, this mobilization cannot be achieved.
This constitutes a strong objective binding force, which prevents politicians from acting recklessly.
The most typical example is actually the “burning Capitol Hill” incident that occurred in 2021.
Although Trump was determined and strongly mobilized his supporters to “rush the tower”, he was unable to call on the government and Republican system that theoretically obeyed his orders to give this tower to legitimacy and subsequent support, so the movement ended upFailed.
Even Trump’s own Twitter account was banned after the incident.
But the new gameplay that Trump invented is likely to bypass this mature supervision system-Because Trump directly “discounted” his influence through Trump’s currency. As mentioned earlier, this system will replace a complete set of fundraising institutions before the Republican Party to complete “energy accumulation” for the right-wing support of the United States..In the future, if Trump needs it, he can use Trump’s currency to directly distribute the funds most needed for political activities to his supporters.
In this way, the political power of voters supporting Trump will be immediately transformed into money, and then used money to transform into political power, directly irrigating Trump’s hard-core supporters.Just like the electric transmission used by the Porsche tank that Hitler loved, this round bypassed the original control system of American politics and controlled by elites.
As a result, just as after the Mallorian reform, the governors of various provinces were no longer controlled by the Republic, Trump finally got rid of the constraints and manipulation of the “deep government” he hated (in fact, it was an existing party mobilization system).
But just as the stick of Mall paved the way for Caesar to “cross the Rubicon” road, what will Trump do with his no longer restricted “stick of Mall”?No one knows it.
Please remember,A “convenient method” to bypass the constraints of the original system is always created by an ambitious ambitious man, and is eventually distorted and ruined by a group of greedy speculators to the point of being ridiculous.
Such a ridiculous thing happened in the chaotic times of the “third century crisis” of the Roman Empire – the Imperial Guards priced the emperor’s position and held public auctions, and those with the highest price won it.Rome became a “cow” that the emperor and the imperial guards jointly exploited the people and used them to profit. Rome’s originally noble “public affairs” became an ugly business.This is a destined consequence when the Mallorian military reform was established, and the governor directly fed the army.
By the same token, if Trump’s path to issuing coins can work according to his plan, the US presidential election may eventually go to such a ridiculous astray.
For example, a person announces that he can run for president and relies on extreme policy programs to please extreme people. After the election is successful or even if it is just a climate of objection, he will publicly announce the issuance of coins, and then cut a wave of leeks to achieve financial freedom.Run away.
Then politics will no longer be politics, and slogans, especially extreme slogans, will become a tool for those with ulterior motives to make huge profits.
Although I believe Trump himself is not ambition-his goal, he is afraid that due to his determination to retaliate over the past four years, he will realize his “cross the Rubicon River” to the Democratic and Republican establishments, and then control the overall situation.
But there is no doubt that he will become the “initiator” at this point-Because he opened up the exchange path between politics and money that he could not have opened up.It laid the root of disaster for more convenient institutional corruption in the United States.
Because—I might as well repeat—any “convenient method” that bypasses existing institutional constraints is always created by an ambitious ambitious man, and will eventually be distorted and corrupted by a group of greedy speculators.
What is the influence and appeal of politicians like the president?
It was supposed to be a kind of social instrument.It’s not the influence Trump you own.People support you Trump because they represent some political aspiration of quite a lot of Americans.
However, when Trump discounted this kind of social influence that belonged to a public instrument by issuing coins, the money he obtained was private, even if Trump reinvested the funds into political activities through “Trump currency”.Among them, the political influence obtained by its transformation only represents its personal will.
This will be the most exquisite “money laundering” (influence laundering) and the most open-minded and persistent in turning public into private.
And can the US system hold Trump’s rampage?It seems difficult at the moment.
It is true that Congress can pass laws similar to “the president or president-elect does not allow issuance of meme coins.”However, such laws can only take effect after they are signed by the president and approved by the Supreme Court and are not unconstitutional.
In other words, we must go through the three “cheese pores” of legislation, administration and justice at the same time to finally achieve, and fill in the gap in the institutional cage that the founding ancestors of the United States could never have dreamed of.
But at least during Trump’s tenure, with his current influence and strength, he will definitely not allow such a self-inciting bill to pass.
What’s more, issuing coins is probably only the first of Trump’s series of similar attempts in the future.Trump himself is a top smart businessman, and Musk is also helping him.To be honest, I don’t really believe that a group of politicians can play with these two business geniuses.
Therefore, a struggle between the British, Belarus and the Senate over destroying the existing order and maintaining the existing order will begin with Trump’s return to the White House.
This will be a bet on the direction and national destiny of the United States for hundreds of years.
Two thousand years ago, a very similar struggle was staged in Rome, but with the reform of the Mallorian army, Caesar crossing the Rubicon River, and with the people at Caesar’s funeral, the people were called for recklessly due to hunger and coldness and Anthony’s sophistry.The republicans were defeated by the Caesars in a disastrous manner. Rome gradually alienated from the republic era to the imperial system, and then inevitably became rapidly corrupted, and finally ended absurdly amid the hawking of the barbarian guards on the throne.
And this time, will the Republicans’ struggle be more powerful and resolute?Or is New Augustus heading to the throne and crown?
The overture has ended,
The curtain of the theater is opening.
Let’s wait and see.
