jakiro
The first half of 24 will end in the crypto market’s pullback and consolidation.In this cycle, BTC rose rapidly due to the influence of ETFs, and the performance of altcoins is relatively average. A large number of retail investors who missed BTC often complained about “no sense of participation”.
As the market continues to pull back and consolidation, especially the large number of altcoins have almost fallen to the increase in the past six months, new opportunities may be quietly nurtured.
This article combines market hotspots and insights into future trends, and takes stock of the tracks and targets that we believe are worth paying attention to in the second half of the year. The views only represent current ideas.
01Macro perspective: The bull market is likely to be not over yet, and risks and opportunities coexist
In the initial stage of this cycle, the three core driving forces of ETF, BTC halving and interest rate cuts have been deeply rooted in people’s hearts.
From the miserable farce of a well-known media reporting that “ETF was approved” ignited the market in October last year, to the official passage of BTC ETF in early January, the expectation difference for ETFs dominated the trend and game of the entire market;
The BTC halving in April did not cause severe fluctuations in the market under the influence of geopolitical conflicts at that time.
With the implementation of the first two core driving forces, it is difficult for both to become the fuel to further detonate the market.
therefore,The speculation around the expectation of interest rate cuts and the improvement of liquidity by interest rate cuts will be the biggest external drivers of the subsequent explosion of the crypto market.
For most crypto investors, perhaps waiting for each core data release to earn short-term volatility profits is not the main way to make profits, so we just need to be clear.Over the longer period of time, the market still has the interest rate cuts that can be expected, which is enough to show that the bull market is likely to be not over yet, and the pullback and consolidation mean the birth of opportunities.
Comparing the consolidation range of this and the last round, we can see that the current BTC seems to have a panicking “M-top” in terms of technical form, but the level of the callback is far less than the level of the callback of more than 50% after the first surge in the previous round., from the perspective of consolidation time, is much shorter than the previous round.
From a risk perspective, BTC’s callback depth is smaller than that of the previous round, and may further decline if external negatives are superimposed to test a lower support position;
From the perspective of opportunity, the formation time of the “M-top” is short and the amplitude is small. The existence of the expectation of interest rate cuts also indicates that the market is likely to be still accumulating momentum for the next climb, and the market has encountered support at around 55,000.
Long-term opportunities are likely to exist, and the cost of chips and the preservation of principal will be the deciding factors that determine the next wave of yield.
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mBmRDBZW/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT
02Meme: The most odds track in this round
2.1 Track background and core logic
The wealth-making myth of Memecoin such as $DOGE and $SHIB has been around for a long time in the industry and is also an opportunity for a large number of users to choose to enter Crypto.
Memecoin’s position in this cycle has been further highlighted, and it has gradually developed into one of Crypto’s core tracks in terms of asset market value and trading volume scale.
Meme’s total assets have exceeded US$50 billion, accompanied by transaction volume of more than US$4 billion.
We can also find from Memecoin’s ranking that Meme after $DOGE and $SHIB are both new stars in this cycle, which further proves Memecoin’s excellent performance in this cycle.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/meme-token
Judging from the return rate of the track, Memecoin is also the track with the highest overall returns, surpassing popular narratives such as RWA, AI, and DePIN.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uy6y45d9rinmxkoCj7d1EQ
The core reason why Memecoin is sought after by investors in this round is that Meme has relatively better odds.
Retail investors are more likely to get early chips:With the expansion of the primary investment market in the crypto industry, the rise in project valuations by VC institutions has squeezed the profit margins of retail investors to some extent.In contrast, Meme’s chip allocation is relatively fair, and retail investors have more opportunities to get more chips, so their price disadvantage can be significantly reduced.
There is no limit to valuation and lots of room for imagination:Most Memecoin does not have core business, and its valuation depends entirely on market imagination.
The consensus threshold is low:The content carried by Memecoin is more simple and easy to understand, and does not require investors to reserve a large amount of fundamental knowledge and can accommodate the consensus of the vast majority of investors. In addition, Memecoin can capture various hot spots in reality in real time and continuously attract attention and funds.
The risk of Meme is that the token supply is too large, and investors find it difficult for them to find certain targets. At the same time, Memecoin fluctuates violently, and high returns are also accompanied by extremely high risks.
2.2 Pay attention to the target
Memecoin is difficult to value and classify from other perspectives, so the following will select Memecoin with odds from the current market value perspective to classify it.
Compared with old blue chips $DOGE and $SHIB, the new blue chip Meme that has risen in this cycle has better opportunities.
2.2.1 Blue chip level: $PEPE, $WIF
$PEPE, as one of the most impressive Memecoin performance in this round, performed extremely strongly in this round.
As for the symbol of $PEPE itself, as a Meme that is widely circulated on major social media, it has extremely high recognition.
From the perspectives of pulling the market consensus and cultural consensus, $PEPE is the well-deserved first choice for Memecoin investment.
In addition, $PEPE’s current market value is about US$5.3 billion, and the market value level of $DOGE or $SHIB at its peak has certain odds and market acceptance.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pepe
As one of Solana’s most representative Memecoin, $WIF also achieved impressive performance in this cycle.
The image of wearing a hat is deeply rooted in people’s hearts and has spawned various other image of wearing a hat.
The strong rebound that $WIF often shows after the decline has also become the first choice for many investments to buy at the bottom.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogwifhat
2.2.2 Small and medium-sized market value: $DOG, $BOME
$DOG As Long Yi of the Rune Track, it is very likely that he will explode with the rise of BTC in the future.
As an iterative upgrade plan for inscriptions, runes have a certain probability that the fomo effect of inscriptions will be reproduced in the future, and the enthusiasm of retail investors will be more likely to be stimulated.
In addition, the label of new assets, which has not been implemented, may also become the core factor driving the rise of $DOG.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dog-go-to-the-moon-runes-2
$BOME is also a representative asset of this cycle. Binance broke the record and exceeded US$1 billion in market value, opening a new trend of pre-sales and payment, and has an important position in the hearts of investors.
$BOME is still a culture of PEPE, and its market value is now about one-tenth of $PEPE. Although it is at its peak when it debuts, it has not started a second market. Therefore, $BOME has certain explosive potential.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/book-of-meme
03AI /DePIN: Take AI to develop the east wind
3.1 Track background and core logic
The popularity of ChatGPT has completely ignited the entire AI industry, and the impact of AI on humanity has been elevated to the level of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”.The popularity of AI is directly and profoundly affecting the crypto industry through the two core logics of digital economy and hardware demand.
As AI’s penetration rate in people’s daily work and life continues to increase, computing power problems continue to become prominent, and the market continues to increase pricing for computing power companies like Nvidia.
Computing power equipment is also the core pillar of the encryption industry. Before AI became popular, the demand for computing power in the encryption industry had long been the period of Nvidia’s rapid development.
With the development of the crypto industry, computing power has begun to surplus, and AI has gradually become the demanding party for this part of idle computing power.
In addition, AI’s task execution, resource allocation, and investment in data elements occur entirely in the digital world, and the distribution of interests behind it is difficult to clearly define under the traditional framework. This article is temporarily called the digital economy dispute.
The crypto industry’s characteristics such as accounting and Proof of work can naturally be used to resolve such digital disputes and coordinate the interests behind AI software and hardware.
The popularity of AI has just brought a clear development direction to Crypto in the bear market. Various distributed AI computing power, algorithms and other projects have emerged, forming the current AI/DePIN track.
As the binding between the AI/DePIN track and AI continues to deepen, the behavior of companies such as Nvidia and OpenAI have begun to affect the market of related tokens.With the birth of hot spots of advancement in AI technology, the crypto industry will develop together with the trends and hot spots of the AI market.
3.2 Pay attention to the target
At present, the Crypto x AI project has penetrated into all aspects of AI. The following will analyze targets worth paying attention from the three aspects of computing power supply, algorithms, and AI economy.
3.2.1 Computing power supply
The AI products we use currently rely on the underlying large language model, and the construction of the large language model depends on the underlying GPU computing. The encryption industry not only has the reserve of computing power equipment, but also can build a computing power market through blockchain incentives.This provides an additional source of computing power for AI.
Keywords such as distributed and idle computing power are characteristics of computing power provided by the encryption industry, and the corresponding core narrative is the reduction of costs.
3.2.1.1 Arweave/AO
As an old storage project, Arweave has a strong position as the leading player in the storage track with its excellent ecology and storage cost-effectiveness.
With Arweave launching the computing platform AO, Arweave officially entered the distributed computing market and officially became a concept token for computing power.
Compared with other computing power projects, AO can naturally take advantage of Arweave’s ready-made storage advantages to achieve a high degree of coordination between the computing layer and the storage layer, which is crucial for large models on the computing chain.
In addition, AO has carried out radical designs in parallel computing, messaging, etc., which brings stronger performance to AO compared to other distributed computing projects.Therefore, AO actually has a natural advantage in computing power.
The launch of the AO platform and related public relations activities (PR) jointly promoted the rise in the price of $AR, which is enough to show the market’s recognition of AO.
With the continued development of Crypto x AI, $AR/AO will become one of the most promising AI tokens.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/arweave
3.2.1.2 io.net
IO.net, which recently launched Binance, is currently the popular romance in the current track.io.net is a decentralized GPU network designed to provide huge computing power for machine learning applications.
Their vision is to unlock fair computing power access by assembling over a million GPUs from projects such as standalone data centers, crypto miners, and Filecoin to make computing more scalable, accessible and efficient.
io.net provides a completely different cloud computing method, leveraging distributed and decentralized models to provide users with more computing power control and flexibility, and its services are licensed and inexpensive.
According to io.net, their computing power, such as Amazon AWS, is 90% lower. The combination of all these factors makes io.net the leader among decentralized providers.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/io-net
3.2.2 Algorithm
3.2.2.1 Bittensor
Bittensor is a decentralized network that connects global machine learning models. By collaborating with multiple specialized AI models, it improves the accuracy and efficiency of solving complex problems. This method combines the unique advantages of each model and producesMore precise and comprehensive results are better than traditional single model methods.
Bittensor also gains scalability by creating an ecological way, and currently it can accommodate 32 subnets to adapt to services in various vertical scenarios.
Bittensor’s algorithm and ecological practice is highly innovative, and makes full use of decentralization to stimulate AI.Currently, the market value is close to 6 billion, which is a relatively safe target.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittensor
3.2.3 AI Economy
3.2.3.1 Artificial Superintelligence Alliance($ASI)
ASI is merged from three Crypto x AI projects that have been deeply rooted in related fields for many years, Ocean Protocol($OCEAN), SingularityNET($AGIX), and Fetch.ai($FET).
The three projects merge to form a team called Superintelligence Collective, with the CEO being Ben Goertzel, founder of SingularityNET.The three projects will still operate as independent entities, but will work closely together in the shared $ASI token ecosystem and the operations of Superintelligence Collective.
In the merger announcement issued by the three teams, there is no introduction to much about the new business that will be carried out after the merger.
According to Ben Goertzel on its social platform, after the merger, the future work direction will revolve around AGI (General Artificial Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence), which is why the merger token name is $ASI.
Token conversion information:
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Fetch.ai’s token $FET will be converted to $ASI at a 1:1 ratio
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SingularityNET’s $AGIX and Ocean Protocol’s $OCEAN will be converted to $ASI at a ratio of about 1:0.433
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$FET, as the base token of the alliance, will be renamed directly to $ASI, and an additional minted 1.48 billion tokens, of which $867 million is allocated to $ASI to $AGIX holders and $611 million is allocated to $OCEAN token holders
Fetch.ai already has relatively mature experience in AI agents, On February 20, Deutsche Telecom announced a cooperation with the Fetch.ai Foundation to become Fetch.ai’s first corporate ally, and Deutsche Telecom subsidiary MMS will also serve as a Fetch.ai verifier.
Fetch is also announcing the launch of the $100 million infrastructure investment project, Fetch Compute, which will deploy Nvidia H200, H100 and A100 GPUs to create a platform for developers and users to leverage computing power.
andOcean Protocol has built many module services in decentralized data sharing, access control and payment..According to reports, its Predictoor product has sold more than $800 million in six months since its launch.
SingularityNET is the most explored in the AGI direction of these three projects before merger, its AGI team and partners TrueAGI and OpenCog communities have focused on developing the AGI framework OpenCog Hyperon since 2020, SingularityNET will also launch a decentralized artificial intelligence platform this year to create a basic environment suitable for running AGI systems.
ASI, which has been merged from three powerful projects that have been deeply rooted in the long-term, is the product of a strong alliance. With the coordination of business and economic systems, ASI is expected to gain a new leading position in the field of Crypto x AI, while maximizing the capture of external AI technologies.The increase in “attention” brought about by development.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/artificial-superintelligence-alliance
04RWA: The only way to large-scale application of blockchain
4.1 Track background and core logic
RWA is a key track that closely connects blockchain with the real world. In the long run, it is an inevitable requirement for large-scale application of blockchain. In the short term, it can introduce a large amount of capital and liquidity to the crypto market and the real market.
RWA involves tokenizing real assets that lack liquidity and introduces them into the crypto market. The introduced RWA assets mean more value support for real assets to the crypto market, bringing potential spillover funds. At the same time, the interest-generating assets in RWA can also be used forThe crypto market provides enhanced revenue;
For traditional assets, a new liquidation method is obtained, so that assets that lack liquidity can be arbitrage or quickly liquidated.
The inflow of funds brought by BTC ETFs has fully demonstrated the interest of funds outside the industry in the crypto market.With representative cases on the RWA track, the track will explode further.
4.2 Pay attention to the target
4.2.1 Ondo Finance
Ondo Finance is an RWA decentralized financial platform.Through blockchain technology, Ondo Finance has created a transparent investment infrastructure for institutional investors, committed to becoming an on-chain investment bank, providing a variety of RWA products including bonds, real estate and commodities to meet the needs of different investors.
With the rapid growth of the RWA market, Ondo Finance, as a pioneer in the industry, has huge development potential.
Its transparent and efficient investment platform will continue to attract more institutional investors and further promote the development and maturity of the market.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ondo
4.2.2 Swarm Markets
Swarm Markets is a blockchain platform that provides traditional financial digitalization and transaction solutions.
It will encrypt physical assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks, and provide a legal trading infrastructure.
Swarm Markets is the world’s first DeFi platform licensed by BaFin (Germany Federal Financial Regulatory Authority), ensuring that its operations comply with regulatory standards in financial markets.
As more and more traditional financial assets are tokenized, Swarm Markets’ compliance and diversified trading platforms will gain more market share in the future.
Its innovative financial solutions will continue to attract institutional and retail investors and drive the platform’s sustained development.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/swarm-markets
05Social: User incremental potential and ecological fertility
5.1 Track background and core logic
Whether in Web2 or Web3, socialization is the most important and core track.
For the industry, social interaction can be achieved through its own relationship between users onboard new users and retained users;
For all kinds of services and applications, social interaction also plays an important role in growing, retention and increasing user stickiness.
At present, the penetration rate of the Web3 industry still needs to be improved, and the increase in user retention and stickiness are also one of the core problems it faces. Socialization is the main solution to the above problems.
In previous cycles, a large number of social projects have been tried, but have not achieved phenomenal application.
In this cycle, various technologies to lower user thresholds, infrastructure to ensure performance and experience have been unprecedentedly mature, and the social track is likely to be able to achieve great opportunities in this cycle.
5.2 Pay attention to the target
5.2.1 Ton and Ecological Projects
TON (The Open Network) As the only public chain officially supported by social giant Telegram, relying on Telegram’s huge 900 million monthly active users, it has created a unique narrative from payment, social networking and mini-programs.
TON does not need to increase user migration costs. With Telegram’s existing social network, TON can reconstruct the Web2 business model in the form of Web3.
At present, the TON ecosystem is still in the early stage of construction, but super high traffic projects such as Notcoin and Catizen have emerged, showing a huge userbase backed by Telegram.
Therefore, TON and its ecosystem will likely further stimulate Telegram’s user vitality in the future and nurture a more prosperous ecosystem.
For more analysis, please refer to Biteye’s previous articles:From Web2 to Web3: How TON Chain Reshapes the Future of Social and Payment
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/toncoin
5.2.2 Farcaster
Farcaster is a decentralized social networking protocol that utilizes smart contracts and hybrid storage technologies to enable social connection, content sharing and data ownership among users, while supporting diversified and flexible client and application development.
Farcaster is not a new social project, but a leader that has finally emerged after being tested by the market.
Farcaster just opened its registration in October last year. This year, it has gained market attention with its multiple progress in data, ecology and financing, and has firmly established itself as the leader in the social track.
For more analysis, please refer to Biteye’s previous articles:“Can Farcaster, a social leader with a valuation of 1 billion yuan, become a new hot spot in the bull market”
5.2.3 UXLINK
UXLINK is a dApp that focuses on socializing acquaintances. Relying on the good experience provided by Telegram and the clear idea of ”acquaintance relationship fission”, UXLINK has achieved remarkable results in data.In the second half of the bull market, UXLINK will have huge potential to achieve user explosion.
For more analysis, please refer to Biteye’s previous articles:“Understanding Web3 Social Monsters in One Article: UXLINK”
Source: https://x.com/Coin98Analytics/status/1803363935875375499
06LSD/LSDfi: The end point of incremental funds
6.1 Track background and core logic
LSD/LSDfi is the core component of building the basic benefits of the ETH ecosystem.With the arrival of ETH ETF, we expect a large amount of funds to flow into the ETF, driving the rise of ETH prices, LSD/LSDfi will have a great chance of ushering in a growth point in its business and becoming a sector directly driven by incremental funds.
6.2 Pay attention to the target
6.2.1 Lido/Rocket Pool
As two leading LSD players, its brand has been deeply trusted by big players, and it is likely to occupy an absolute market share in the incremental ETH pledge.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/lido-dao
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/rocket-pool
6.2.2 Ether.fi
Ether.fi is a fully self-hosted and decentralized LSD protocol.Unlike other liquid staking protocols, ether.fi allows participants to retain control of their keys when staking tokens and can exit the validator at any time to reclaim their ETH.
While ensuring complete self-custody, ether.fi can also automatically pledge users’ deposits to Eigenlayer to obtain profits and further protect users’ economic interests.
With fully self-hosted and guaranteed yields from EigenLayer, Ether.fi also has great potential to capture significant market share in the next round of track growth.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ether-fi
6.2.3 EigenLayer
As the pioneer of Restaking, EigenLayer has pushed LSD into LSDfi, further adding a layer of revenue source to the Ethereum ecosystem.
The LST ecosystem built around EigenLayer will also enjoy the incremental dividends brought by ETH ETFs.The allocation of EigenLayer tokens has been confirmed and it should not be too far away for the official launch.
6.2.4 Renzo
Renzo is a restaking protocol based on EigenLayer, designed to simplify the complex process of end users’ restaking.
It provides higher returns and liquidity by introducing liquidity re-staked token ezETH, so that stakers do not need to worry about the active selection and management of operators and reward strategies.
As an important project of the LRT ecosystem and with Binance’s investment background, Renzo’s current market value is attractive.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/renzo
6.2.5 StakeStone
StakeStone is a comprehensive LSD/LSDfi project.StakeStone provides a highly adaptable pledge income underlying asset for all protocols that require LSD liquidity by integrating mainstream staking pools, Re-Stake and LSD’s blue-chip DeFi strategy returns.
Users can obtain STONE tokens through staking ETH, and then obtain the benefits of native staking and blue-chip DeFi strategies.
In addition, StakeStone also supports multi-chain operations, further improving liquidity and adaptability, and has unique advantages in supporting the new ecosystem and obtaining early rewards.
As a project invested by Binance, StakeStone has certain expectations after issuing coins. With the growth of its business, StakeStone is a great potential opportunity.
6.2.6 Karak
Karak Network is a restaking network, similar to restaking projects such as Eigenlayer, and also uses the points model to incentivize users to restaking, thereby obtaining multiple benefits.
In December 2023, Karak announced that it had received a US$48 million Series A financing, led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, and participated by institutions such as Mubadala Capital and Coinbase. Among them, Mubadala Capital is the second largest fund in Abu Dhabi. Karak estimates this round of financing.Valued at over $1 billion.
The strong team strength and impressive investment background indicate that Karak has the strength to wrestle with EigenLayer and will also create corresponding opportunities.
6.2.7 Pendle Finance
Pendle splits the volatility and principal of interest-generating assets by introducing income tokenization and trading, bringing a new paradigm of participation to the entire LSD.
Pendle’s multi-staking pool and risk management capabilities enable users to manage risks more effectively and hedge potential losses, reducing volatility and risk in the DeFi market.
With the passage of the ETH ETF, a large amount of funds will flow into ETH, promoting the development of the LSD/LSDfi ecosystem, which Pendle is expected to benefit from as part of the ecosystem.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pendle
07BTC Ecosystem
7.1 Track background and core logic
The explosion of the BTC ecosystem is one of the most eye-catching features of this cycle.The inscription has inspired the market’s enthusiasm for the BTC ecosystem. BTC L2 and various assets have emerged like mushrooms after a rain. BTC pledge/re-pled has occupied a certain market position in the boom of ETH LSD/LSDfi and BTC ecological assets. Runes are the newThe type of ecological assets also shines when it is halved.
There is a common starting point behind these attempts:Let a large amount of BTC funds be active and create a more prosperous ecosystem.
However,With the pullback of BTC and the wealth creation of inscriptions, the current BTC ecosystem is relatively quiet.
As the market improves, we believe that the BTC ecosystem will once again produce phenomenal ecological assets, bringing huge opportunities.
7.2 Pay attention to opportunities
7.2.1 Rune: $DOG
See the Meme section for analysis.The expectations of runes are affected by inscriptions, and market performance can be called “the peak of debut”.As the leader of the rune sector, $DOG has odds and certain defensive attributes, so the rune sector only recommends $DOG for the time being.
7.2.2 Others
A large number of BTC L2s have not formed an active ecosystem, and the opportunities related to BTC staking are still unclear. We recommend waiting for the market to make a choice.
08Summary and prospect
The crypto market is no longer a separate market, but is gradually integrating into the real economy.As we analyze opportunities in the crypto market, we increasingly feel the importance of external drivers in the industry.
When market changes and adjustments, the core needs to first clarify where we are in a cycle and which internal and external factors are driving the next small cycle.
During the market consolidation and pullback, we should not be dominated by panic, but what is more worthwhile is to think about the opportunities behind the decline.
We have summarized these tracks and opportunities worth paying attention to in the second half of the year, hoping to provide readers with useful reference.
