jakiro
Author: Ice Frog
Preface:
As Trump swept the American politics with historic victory, the wind reversed overnight, and Bitcoin hit a record high. However, within the crypto world, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are fundamentally two different worlds.
In the name of Build, the “value currency” known as the cornerstone of the crypto world is facing unprecedented application difficulties and FUD. The MEME frenzy has come again, which makes people rethink again: in the bull market that is visible to the naked eye, should we believe it againValue coins, or MEME, are the real future?
Starting from the end of Qingping
Little Confident Value Discovery, Liquidity Boosts
Before discussing MEME, we need to briefly sort out the development history of MEME in the crypto world. From a time perspective, we can generally simply divide it as follows:
Judging from the above development history, there are several important trends that can be briefly summarized:
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Liquid expansion is the basis: MEME was born in a bull market, and the explosion of currency prices is often accompanied by the liquidity expansion of the US dollar.
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The celebrity effect is the best help: whether it is the popularity of MEMEs like Shib or Doge, there are celebrity effects, such as Musk.
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MEME echoes the spiritual demands: from zoo pictures, Internet memes, and then to AI MEME, they all imply the most disseminating spirit of the times at that time, and the inner emotional demands it contains are becoming more and more abundant.
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The expiration cycle is rapidly shortened: With the rise of fair launch platforms such as Pump.fun, coin issuance has entered the minute level and the life cycle has also entered the hour level.
The era of Doge’s rise is the era of post-90s, and it has basically entered the era of smartphones, and the communication methods between pictures and Emoji have become popular; in 2020, it has entered the era of post-00s, and online plays memes are already basic, but compared withAfter the 1990s, depression and lying flat seem to be more common, but they are also more anti-authoritative and anti-elite. They like funny and absurd things, such as PEPE; entering 2024, AI is the most cutting-edge technology and the mostDisruptive technology, the post-00s are still the main force of this wave. While the post-80s are still questioning the future of AI, the post-00s have already started to use AI to make money. They seem to be with the most forward-looking technology leaders of this era.Together, we quickly accepted the occurrence of change.
With the rise of meme fair launch platforms such as Pump.fun, 5k-10k of MEME tokens are born every day.Statistics in October show that only 1.4% of users earned more than $1,000, and more than 80% were losses.
At today’s time point, there are many discussions on the market for MEME’s roots and roots, and their corresponding footholds and theoretical explanations can be found from the cultural perspective, the emotions of the times, the communication effect, etc.However, no matter which angle, a definite conclusion is that MEME does not apply to measure its value from a realistic perspective such as utility and practicality. This is a narrow understanding of the value itself. Under the general trend of excessive currency issuance, it isTimes chose MEME, but blockchain is the best soil to carry.
MEME is rooted in the spiritual demands of the younger generation and new value standards. They are disdainful of the value standards in the sense of grand narrative. They tend to experience happiness in small certain things and use concrete humor to fight abstractions.majesty.A meme can bring resonance. For the younger generation, it is both seen and a victory in life. This victory has burst out with great value in the blockchain world. The so-called rationality and ideals are synonymous with backwardness.Entertainment to death, consumption first, they have no concept of crypto shame and crypto casinos. In their roots, MEME is part of daily life and another form of game.
However, although MEME was created by the younger generation, it became the capital contribution of the older generation to hype investment, because for the 60s, 70s and 80s, their most accustomed to is: not understanding but notIt does not hinder the cutting of leeks.
Value coins collapsed on reality
A plunge is not scary, and falsification may lead to a slump
For most elderly people who have experienced multiple cycles in the currency circle, plunges are quite common and not scary. Better than BTC, there are times when they plummet, but people lose their belief in value coins/VC coins because they are not slashing.Bilateral fluctuations that surge or fall or rise again, but for the broader retail investors, when they get chips, they are already at the top of Mount Everest of the currency price, watching it gradually enter sea level,Until it fell into the Mariana Trench.
The current situation is that tokens of value coins have become products, while real products are ignored.Regarding low circulation and high market value coins, the market analysis and discussion are as many as MEME. There are many reasons for this situation: overvalued valuation caused by bull and bear conversion; chip distribution under crypto compliance; uneven ecological system strength, unhealthy, etc.
In essence, the development of value coins is the result of multiple reasons. From the narrative perspective, it is defeated by the lack of application, from the wealth effect, it is destroyed by the distribution, and from the ecological perspective, it is damaged by the hypocritical elites.For most altcoins, the concept of the dance and micro-innovation at the protocol level once became fashionable. From the so-called chain abstraction, Layer2, Layer3, and intention centers, new nouns emerged one after another. However, the interaction volume proved everything, and in the absence of practical application scenariosNext, users’ usage needs are neither urgent needs nor irreplaceable.Therefore, the data of the project can only rely on project incentives, such as airdrops, points, etc. If the incentive mechanism itself has unfair behavior and a quack trading, it will eventually evolve into the tokens mentioned by Murad and become the final product.The product itself is no one cares about it.
As shown in the figure below, each participant has different demands on the wealth effect under the mainstream narrative logic of an industry. Unfortunately, each demand does not revolve around the real value of the project itself, or let’s say more cruelly:Narratives are just fig leafs for cutting leeks, because all narratives are too easy to be falsified in a short period of time, and most of the confirmed ones are dolls or Pangzi.
Hundreds of public chains, hundreds of L2s, hundreds of cross-chain bridges, thousands of Defis, and countless various narrative concepts. In the maze of concepts, the logical building that seems to be seamless can be overcome.A simple blow to reality will make this situation worse if the external liquidity does not overflow and narrative homogeneous competition.
Many project parties do not know that the so-called hypocritical elite mentality has become the last straw for the value coins to be defeated. Many project parties are both responsible and established. While despising the electronic beggar, they secretly establish a rat warehouse, calling for subversion and revolution., innovative, but in your hands are sickles, large sickles and larger sickles.
You stare at the abyss, and the abyss is also staring at you, using grand narrative value to attract capital and users, and implementing wealth distribution with unfair means. Once the former is falsified, the latter will definitely fall to the bottom, but the bottom of the value currencyPerhaps it’s longer than everyone thinks.
The future of MEME and value coins
History will repeat itself, but it won’t be repeated simply
Victory is always written by the winner, and the confirmation of value only has the greatest consensus at the moment the value is realized.The main idea of the crypto world is still tokenization. Before a token comes out, there is no value coin or MEME coin. There is no difference in essence, it is only reflected in the difference in implementation paths.
The advantage of value coins is that they have a complete set of follow-on methodology to implement from cold start to positive cycle of currency price. Relatively speaking, the certainty of success is high, but the upper limit is also quite limited.In terms of the ultimate goal, it solves the user’s utility needs.
The advantage of MEME coins is that although it does not have a fully replicable implementation path (relative to value coins), it has relatively high randomness, but its upper limit is very high, and now the operation of MEME coins is more capitalized, mature andNo worse than the value currency.In terms of the ultimate goal, it solves the demands of user community identity.
The original sin of the project is that users do not make money, not whether they have value or not.In the long run, we need to realize that the blockchain world is inherently diverse in value. Whether it is the FUD of value coins or the pursuit of MEME, it does not necessarily mean that these two forms should survive more. These two oppositions only represent thatThe struggle for the right to speak in different capitals does not mean that reality is established.For most of the market, the simplest and simple truth is: under a fair environment, projects that make money are valuable projects, which is almost the only criterion for judgment.
Therefore, there are only two questions that need to be answered about the future of value coins and MEME coins: who can achieve relatively fairness and who has a better profit-loss ratio.
Fairness depends on the improvement of the system; the profit-loss ratio depends on narrative development and liquidity.The two together determine the future cycle rotation and the future of encryption.
After Trump comes to power, we can be very likely to clarify the improvement of the institutional environment, but whether this improvement is conducive to the reversal of the current bad industry of value coins is still unknown;
In terms of profit-loss ratio, the source of whether the development of value currency narrative can continue lies in whether new entrants increase in large quantities, but if the assumption cannot be deeply integrated with real needs, falsification will still come quickly, and the worst thing is that this process isDifficult to accelerate, blockchain will not become the world’s mainstream overnight, but in terms of liquidity, value coins seem to have more advantages, because more common investment institutions still tend to inject funds into the value coins track, but in the narrative logic, there is noWith essential improvements, not enough leeks are turning from jokes to reality.
If we look at the future from this perspective, institutional improvement, slow narrative progress, and liquidity overflow are still the basic situations of value coins, then its most likely state is not death and return to zero, just like China’s real estate, with a high valuation collapse.In the state of this, a long period of elimination and adjustment will be encountered, and the waves in the middle will give birth to real value coins.
For MEME, an era of blooming flowers is coming, and more powerful capital operation and exchange traffic support have accelerated MEME, but for retail investors, it does not mean that making money is easier, but as long as the wealth effect continuesIf it exists, most of the market will still be willing to believe: I will definitely succeed in PVP this time.
Only by allowing money to happen in a fair environment will sustainability exist.Each cycle has a different narrative, and there are countless dead value coins and MEME coins. The commonality of the truly left value coins and MEME coins is not the so-called competition for value orthodox, but who wins the wider community users.Identify and support.
If you want to make a final summary, it must be: there is no eternal universal value in the world, and there is no difference between value coins and MEME coins. From a historical perspective, there are always those who can continue to gain community recognition and user trust.Only projects can last forever and renew, and this is the real value.
Money never sleeps, new stories are still on the way, and I hope you can win this time!
