jakiro
TL;DR
1. Meme has experienced a slow budding stage from 2013 to 2019, followed by a chaotic period of rapid change from 2020 to 2022. Finally, it ushered in a period of rapid development from 2023 to 2024, and has officially gained widespread as a single track.的认可和受众基础。
2. Meme’s average daily turnover rate is about 11%. In comparison, DeFi is 5%, Layer2 is 7%, and Layer1’s average daily turnover rate is 4%. This proportion not only highlights the high flow of MemeIt also shows that users are interested in Meme and have a higher frequency of transactions.
3. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Meme’s market value share in the entire crypto market has increased from 0.87% two years ago to 2.58% today, and it still has a growing trend.If a simple linear regression simulation is done, this proportion will reach 3.54% in 2025 and 7.81% in 2030.
4. Meme is a leveraged Layer1, that is, when the market conditions improve, there will be a Layer1 increase of about 5 to 10 times.
5. Animal Meme and Cult Culture Meme are types suitable for long-term attention.In contrast, other categories of Memes tend to be associated with short-term hotspots, and their attention and popularity may rise rapidly and then fall back.
In 2024, the industry and the market are undergoing a drastic reshuffle. Against the backdrop of poor performance in many projects invested and supported by VCs, Meme has gone upstream and become a new force that cannot be ignored.The rise of the PvP mode, the wealth effect brought by a single coin critical hit, and the extremely friendly Solana to Meme have all shown unique brilliance this year.Murad, the representative figure of the new generation of Meme, quickly became a popular figure in the Meme industry through Supercycle’s speech.However, what changes has Meme gone through behind this Meme craze?From the perspective of VC, how should we participate?这些问题都值得我们深入探讨。
Meme Market Panorama: Origin, Evolution and Market Data Analysis
起源与影响
As a cultural communication phenomenon, Meme is closely linked to human history.Languages, beliefs and customs originated from early societies, etc., are spread among groups through imitation and learning.The emergence of the Internet has greatly accelerated the spread of Memes. They spread rapidly among users in the form of pictures, videos, texts, emoticons, etc. due to humor, satire or resonance.Meme 满足了人们在社会互动中表达情感、分享观点、建立共鸣The demand is a cultural phenomenon that reflects social trends, group psychology and cultural changes.其传播和流行受Content appeal, communication environment, community acceptance and KOL influence等多种因素影响。
In Web2, Meme culture was mainly born and developed on the two platforms of 4chan and Reddit.4chan is the birthplace of Pepe the Frog, a popular Meme, which gathers a large number of related contents of Pepe Meme and its derivative culture.Meanwhile, 4chan is also a hotbed for Boy’s Club comics, providing us with an important perspective on how to get a deeper understanding of Meme culture.Reddit has nurtured classic memes such as Dogecoin and Success Kid.Thanks to the active community atmosphere and solid user base of these two platforms, they are still the birthplace of many new Memes to this day.In addition to these two platforms, social media platforms with many other users (Twitter X and Telegraph, etc.) have also spawned some popular Memes.For example, dogwifhat hat dog, the image of a dog wearing a pink wool hat. With its unique image, this Meme has formed a “hat” totem culture in the community since the early days. Many favorite users and well-known people have forwarded the relevant information.hat dog picture.
Evolution and development Started in Web2, crazy about Web3.In this article, we collectively call Meme and its related currencies “Meme” and will no longer make specific distinctions.Looking back at Meme’s development, we noticed that it was not conspicuous in its early days and was not valued enough.Referring to the periodic changes in the bull and bear industry, we can divide the development line of Meme into these three stages:Germination period(2013-2019),Chaos Period(2020-2022),Rapid development period(2023-2024).By checking CoinMarketCap’s historical snapshot data statistics, Coingecko’s single currency data, search engine historical information and social media content, we can have a more comprehensive understanding of the evolution of Meme.
Chart: Meme’s evolution and development As of the budding period ending December 31, 2019, on the top 100 cryptocurrencies’ market capitalization list,Dogecoin is the only Meme currency, ranked 34th.Looking back from 2013 to 2019, Meme currency did not occupy a significant position in the market.During this period, the industry is in a rapid infrastructure construction stage, and everyone is exploring various new concepts.The mainstream new currencies are usually those payment public chains with more efficient transaction processing capabilities and faster confirmation time, or new public chains with powerful smart contract functions.For Meme currency, the challenge is that they not only require high costs to establish the dependency carrier, but also because of the difficulty in building liquidity, which leads to small transaction volume and difficulty in obtaining centralized exchanges.Widely supported.Therefore, during the germination of Meme currency, except for currency like Dogecoin that features “Doge” emoticons and has a significant spread effect, there are not many other Meme currency on the market that can survive. The chaos period that began in 2020, or rather, began in August 2020, the wave of IDO triggered by DeFi Summer has emerged. The IDO led by DeFi Summer has enabled people to build liquidity on the chain and provide transactions at low cost.，迅速构建交易场景。This allows to issue tokens at a low cost and directly circulate in the secondary market without going public on the exchange, giving birth to many on-chain memes.During this period, the surviving Meme currencies include SHIB, FLOKI and PEOPLE.But despite this, these early Meme coins were not valued by the market, and their popularity was mainly based on the concept of hype.In addition, the Meme popularity in the chaos period is often generated in the context of industry excess liquidity, which usually occurs as the last relay after multiple sectors take turns to rise.It is worth mentioning that Meme also gained widespread attention during this period because of its association with celebrities, especially Elon Musk’s continued voice on Dogecoin in 2021, which not only caused the fluctuations in Dogecoin’s price to fluctuate significantly, but also promoted Dogecoin as a whole.In terms of market value, the community has also been significantly expanded. With the arrival of 2023, the Meme currency craze continues to heat up, and diverse Meme currency has emerged, such as BONK, PEPE, CHEEMS, Cult culture-related BITCOIN (HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inc) and SPX (SPX6900), WIF and MOG.During this period, the types of Meme coins began to be refined, and other public chains such as Solana also emerged.By 2024, the development of Meme coins has entered a stage of acceleration, and new currencies such as BOME, lowercase NEIRO and GOAT continue to emerge, with their own characteristics.Meme officially gained a wide recognition and audience base as a single track.
Chart: Data metrics for some Memes After sorting out the data indicators such as market value share and market performance of Meme in the top 600 cryptocurrency market from 2013 to 2024, we can clearly see the growth of Meme’s market value and the expansion of categories and quantities.During this period, Meme’s market value not only achieved significant growth, but also increased its types and quantity.As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Meme’s market value share in the entire crypto market has reached 2.58% today, and it still has a growing trend.If a simple linear regression simulation is done, this proportion will reach 3.54% in 2025 and 7.81% in 2030. Perhaps, we once doubted whether Meme was just a flash in the pan and would quickly return to silence after the craze.However, with the study and understanding of Meme, we believe our views have changed.Meme will not only not disappear, but will continue to innovate. New leaders may appear in every era cycle.However, behind these dazzling Memes, there is a cruel reality that reminds us that we must always keep a calm and clear mind. Market Data Analysis By analyzing Meme’s development and historical data, we can roughly understand its development trends.Then, studying the current market structure can provide us with an intuitive perspective to observe changes in market hotspots and the flow of funds.Below, we further explore the macro indicators of the Meme sector, including core indicators such as market value, trading activity and daily average trading volume.These analyses not only reveal the latest developments in the Meme sector, but also show its future development trajectory. Market value and quantity changes:Changes in Meme’s market value and circulation quantity can reflect the market’s demand and acceptance of it.Although some Meme tokens have low market value, the number of new Memes indicates that the community’s interest in the entire sector is growing.Compared with other sectors (Layer1/Layer2/DeFi), Meme is far ahead in terms of total market value and new additions in the past two years. Trading activity:Meme’s trading activity and turnover rate are usually higher than other tracks.According to CoinMarketCap, the overall market capitalization of Meme tokens is approximately $50 billion and daily trading volume is approximately $5 billion, which is much more active than other tracks.On average, the average daily turnover rate of Meme tokens is about 11%, compared to the average daily turnover rate of DeFi is about 5%, Layer2 is about 7%, and Layer1 is about 10%The average turnover rate is 4%. This proportion not only highlights the high liquidity of Meme, but also shows that users have a high interest in Meme and transaction frequency.Meme tokens above the sector level, especially those with larger trading volumes, often become the target of market funds. New Meme coins increase and low success rate:New currencies are constantly emerging in the Meme market, and their gains sometimes even surpass mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC.This shows that the Meme token space has high volatility and speculative opportunities.However, among many new Memes, taking Pump fun data as an example, the Memes successfully launched are less than 2%, and the current market value is only 0.23%, which means that they can withstand the test of time and surviveThe probability is extremely small. Huge transaction volume and new users:Meme can bring huge transaction volume and have a relatively loyal user base.Therefore, for CEX, listing Meme currency can become an important strategy to attract traffic and users.Taking Binance spot market as an example, 20% of the top 30 trading pairs in trading volume are Memes. Chart: CMC’s Binance Spot Trading Data Blue chip Memes scarcity:Blue chip level Memes appear to be relatively scarce.Faced with hundreds of Meme tokens with a huge number, less than 1% of them can truly be called blue chips.Take the Meme recorded on the Coinmarketcap website as an example. Although new Memes in the market are emerging one after another, few of them can withstand the baptism of time and eventually make their mark.In addition, the market value distribution of the Meme sector also shows a significant 28 law: the market value of the entire sector is mainly driven by less than 10% of the top Memes.This highly concentrated market capitalization distribution undoubtedly increases the difficulty of finding real value investment in the Meme field.If you participate in Meme investment from the perspective of a VC, this is consistent with the rule of thumb “Rules 2-8” in venture capital: about 10% of successful Meme investments can compensate for the losses of other Meme investments. summary Combined with the recent highly respected Murad speech in the Meme industry, he predicts that Meme’s market value will reach $1T in the future, which means 25 times the increase, and more than 25 Memes are expected to enter the top 100 in the industry, and VCs will buy blue chip Memewait.Referring to our statistics, this prediction is too optimistic. The current Meme has already belonged to a sector with a large proportion of the industry, and its future development is more about breaking through Layer1, but Layer1 itself is also Memes.The important soil for growth, the development of Memes will inevitably push the progress of Layer1 in reverse. Therefore, we tend to conservatively believe that Memes is a leveraged Layer1, that is, when the market conditions improve, there will be about 5 to 10 times.Layer1 gains.But no matter what, it is necessary to admit that Meme is a field worthy of long-term observation and research.To this end, establishing a systematic trading framework can help us better understand and participate in this market full of potential and challenges. Explore and research Meme As the wave of Meme swept the market, combined with our aforementioned Meme market panoramic research and future trend forecasts, we believe that in-depth exploration and research on Meme is very necessary research work.Through this, we find that the value of Meme does not come from technology or practical applications, but from the enthusiasm of the community and recognition of Meme culture.This motivation makes Meme’s performance in the market full of uncertainty and volatility, but it also brings unprecedented vitality.Through the induction of these characteristics, we construct a clear analytical framework to understand and grasp the potential value and risks of Meme. Basic characteristics of the sector Although the analysis of a single Meme can provide in-depth insights, a broader perspective is required to fully grasp the development trends of the entire Meme sector.Therefore, we first conducted a comprehensive study and analysis of the basic characteristics of the Meme section.Under the current market environment, the Meme sector has shown the following significant characteristics: Low threshold entry:The issuance threshold of Meme is extremely low. As long as you have a social media account, Telegram group, and some creative pictures, you can easily launch a new Meme without the need to do products and development applications like traditional currency projects.Coins are products.The issuance threshold of Meme is significantly lower than that of traditional projects.As long as you have a social media account, Telegram group, and some creative images, you can easily launch a new Meme.This process does not involve complex product development or application construction, making the token itself a core and directly-oriented “product”. The number surges:As the threshold for creating a Meme is extremely low, a large number of new Memes emerge every day. These newly entered Memes quickly expanded the token pool of the market, resulting in a sharp increase in supply.With the continuous addition of the new Meme, everyone will face more choices, which also brings higher screening difficulties. 显著的财富效应：Although the market risks of Meme cannot be underestimated, it also provides huge potential returns for players who entered the game early.The single coin critical hit and the wealth effect of making small profits like a magnet not only attracted the attention of many users, but also inspired their high attention and active participation in the Meme market. 市场韧性：Meme showed good resilience in the face of market volatility and was able to quickly recover from the oscillation and rebound.This rapid recovery is mainly due to the drive of the emotional value of the community and the passionate pursuit of Meme by funds. 名人效应：The participation of well-known figures has significantly increased Meme’s hype and market attention, which has intensified price fluctuations.This celebrity effect not only attracts more attention, but may also lead to a series of information arbitrage behaviors, in which some top players in the information chain may use their influence and information advantages to gain improper benefits. Low liquidity and limited capital capacity:In the early and mid-stage stage of Meme, that is, on-chain market period, Meme’s liquidity is not high, which means that there is a considerable amount of moisture in its huge market value and trading volume.Due to insufficient liquidity, large funds will encounter higher slippage when buying or selling, which leads to increased transaction wear costs.Therefore, the on-chain capital capacity of the Meme market is relatively limited, and it is difficult for institutions to enter and exit on a large scale without significantly affecting prices.This limitation not only increases the difficulty of trading, but also limits the depth and breadth of the market, making the Meme market more vulnerable when facing large-scale capital flows. Extremely high trading risks:Due to the lack of practical application support and intrinsic value, the prices of many Memes are often like roller coasters, rising rapidly and falling sharply.What is even more worrying is that many Memes eventually go to zero, that is, their market value and trading volume have fallen to almost zero.This high-risk trading environment requires us to be extra cautious when we get into Meme and fully recognize the risk of possible capital losses. Active and manipulated trading:Meme’s frequent trading and huge trading volume also show the market’s great interest in it.But what lurks behind the trading volume may be unknown manipulation funds.To this end, unlike VC projects, the Meme market is more like a “willing to accept the loss” open game speculative market. After an in-depth analysis of the basic characteristics of the Meme sector, we can conclude that the Meme sector does have some unique traits that make it unique in the crypto market.Meme’s low entry threshold, surge in quantity, low liquidity and limited capital capacity, extremely high transaction risks, significant wealth effects, transaction activity and susceptibility to manipulation, market resilience, and celebrity effects, togetherIt constitutes the unique ecology of this sector.Because of this, the Meme section is often seen as a arena full of PvP, which is not unreasonable.In this highly competitive field, everyone needs to identify those real blue chip Memes and hidden Gems from a massive amount of Meme coins, just like gold diggers. Features and categories As the Meme sector matures, we should no longer be bound by outdated ideas.Standing outside and ignoring is unable to understand the deep laws of Meme.The current Meme culture has long surpassed the simple memes at the beginning. It has become an important carrier for diversified expression of market sentiment and to spread to people outside the circle.To do this, it is necessary to have a basic understanding of its key characteristics and classifications. Meme has many characteristics, some of which can be quantified using data indicators, while others are relatively difficult to quantify, and more are qualitative characteristics.Then, the key features here are roughly as follows: 1. Cultural uniqueness:is the core of Meme, which often originates from specific cultural phenomena or social trends and builds its unique identity and attraction.Just like the relaxed and humorous Dogecoin, the self-deprecating Pepe, etc., before entering Web3, they attracted many lovers with their cultural characteristics, either using expressions or creating related expressions twice. 2. Continuity:It is the key to measuring whether it can exist in the market for a long time.A successful Meme can often transcend short-term popularity and form long-term cultural influences, similar to the concept of “a diamond lasts forever, and a piece of diamond passes on forever”.Dogecoin, which has lasted for more than ten years, has been the origin of the entire Meme, as it has accompanied the growth of the cryptocurrency industry.For the newly promoted Meme, we cannot be demanding that it can immediately go through the tests like Dogecoin, nor can we imagine that each Binance BOME will be completed in three days. For this reason, we believe that Meme should be able to continue in terms of sustainability.continued半年到一年This also conforms to the time period when the centralized exchange investigates the launch of the project. 3. Communication:It is an important factor in whether Meme can spread rapidly and be widely accepted.A Meme that is easy to spread and has a good conversion effect can attract a lot of attention in a short period of time.Generally, by observing the degree of discussion on social media about related memes and the growth rate of community size.For example, the number of followers on Meme Twitter is the most basic requirement, and the better standard is the hundreds of thousands or even millions. 4. Stickiness or loyalty:Refers to the loyalty and engagement of Meme community members to it.A highly sticky Meme community is able to maintain long-term participation of members and will not easily withdraw even when markets fluctuate. This loyalty is crucial to Meme’s long-term success. The original Dogecoin brought everyone the image of Meme, which is cute, cat, dog and other animals. However, today, some new categories of Meme have emerged and are integrated into the past animal species Meme, greatly including and expanding the categories of Meme..Below, we have simplified the classification of Meme, and different categories can be combined to a certain extent: 1. Animal Meme:Based on animal images, expressing emotions or opinions through humorous words, it is widely loved for its cuteness and affinity.The most well-known ones are undoubtedly Dogecoin, Frog’s Pepe, etc. 2. Celebrity Hype Meme:By leveraging the influence of celebrities or public figures, paying attention to and capturing their speeches and behaviors, and using imitation or jokes to carry out creative re-creation.Typical examples include a series of memes derived from elements such as Elon Musk’s tweets, profiles and avatars, such as “Troll” Troll. 3. Political figures and event categories Meme:Use humor or satirical techniques to allude to politicians or events.Representative Memes include slogans and emergencies around the Trump campaign, such as MAGA and FIGHT.In addition, there are related Memes that misspelled Trump and Biden’s names. 4. Cult Culture Meme:Popular culture originating from a specific group, including specific symbols or memes, can only be understood by those who understand the background, and is loved by specific groups because of their uniqueness and exclusivity.This type of Meme is somewhat similar to the DAO concept in the past. The representative example is PEOPLE, which starts with the financing and auction of the US Constitution and is later converted to the people’s code name. 5. IP derivative class Meme:Token creation based on traditional anime IP or well-known NFTs, using its existing popularity to attract the corresponding target fan base.For example, the associated Meme launched by the NFT project party mfer, which once featured a culture of mourning. 6. Mechanism Meme:Early mechanisms have special settings, such as fair distribution, destruction, and buying and selling tax repurchase. At present, it refers more to Memes issued through associations using emerging AI technologies.The hottest one is the first Meme goat GOAT recently created by terminal of truths. Dogecoin/Troll/Maga/People/mfer/GOAT Memes show unique cultural features and audience bases in different categories, which affect their persistence, communication and stickiness to the community.Among these categories, the animal and Cult cultural Meme are the types that we consider to be suitable for long-term attention due to their deep cultural roots and loyal fan base.In contrast, other categories of Memes tend to be associated with short-term hotspots, and their attention and popularity may rise rapidly and then fall back.To quickly identify and understand the core characteristics of various Memes, we provide the following evaluation framework.
Primary market and launch platform In-depth observation of Meme’s primary market is helpful for understanding Meme, especially those based on public chains.Even after a few years, the initial liquidity establishment is still visible.Taking SHIB as an example, we were able to know the amazing growth in its market cap by looking at the initial transactions in which SHIB adds liquidity pools.Initially, SHIB’s market value was only equivalent to 20 ETH, and its value was about 10K US dollars at that time. To date, the current ETH market price was converted, SHIB’s initial market value was only 50K US dollars.This is undoubtedly extremely attractive and publicity-worthy for Meme, whose market value has increased to one billion in one year. https://dexscreener.com/ethereum/0x811beed0119b4avce20d2583eb608c6f7af1954f https://etherscan.io/tx/0x7f1be2ac40313400c83f23fbe3926bf6bf1d6b2b363264b3016444ea28fe21c7 As a leader in Meme culture, SHIB’s brilliant achievements have inspired the birth of a large number of Memes.But in this wave,Not all Memes can continue to grow.Users have encountered many challenges in participating in these Memes, such as the strange variety of circulation and initial market value, as well as a series of security issues, such as the sudden withdrawal of liquidity pools, and can only buy and cannot sell Pixiu disks, token issuance andTicker confusion caused by the same name or inconsistent case, etc.These factors not only weaken the trust of users, but also bring challenges to the steady growth of Meme as a whole. This situation continues until Meme launch platforms like pump.fun appear.Although it specifically targets low-market Meme, pump.fun actually successfully promotes a standardized Meme mechanism, including the use ofbonding curve pricing model, unified token total, platform endorsement contract security, standardized initial circulation pool addition and destruction, etc..These standardized practices not only enhance Meme’s transparency and credibility, but also provide a solid foundation for the healthy development of the Meme ecosystem. Since the pump.fun platform has made regulations on Meme: until bonding curve is completed 100%, the corresponding liquidity will not be moved to external DEX, and only buying and selling transactions can be conducted in pump.fun.Therefore, players habitually call the Meme that has not completed bonding curve “inner disk”.On the pump.fun platform, the total issuance of Meme tokens is set to 1 billion, of which about 800 million are sold on the internal market.When the internal sales reach the upper limit, about 85 SOLs are consumed.After charging 1.5 SOLs as a handling fee at pump.fun, 20% of the tokens are minted, paired with 79 SOLs, and then launched on the Raydium exchange.At this time, the initial circulation market value of the token is set to 69K SOL.This process not only ensures liquidity management of the Meme project, but also provides a clear reference for the initial market value setting of the project. For readers who want to gain an in-depth understanding of the numerical simulation of the pump.fun protocol, Gryphsis Academy provides an exhaustive article titled “Pump.fun protocol insights: From Bonding Curve calculations to profit-making strategy building.”This article not only explains in detail how the pump.fun protocol works, but also provides insights on how to use bonding curve for numerical simulations.(The migration fee changes in real time according to the official settings, and is currently 1.5Sol) While the current pump.fun is focused on launching low-cap Memes, that doesn’t mean that these Memes have limited ceilings.Recently, two Memes launched through pump.fun have successfully launched on first-tier exchanges (in the form of contracts).This achievement not only drove pump.fun’s Meme launch activity to become more popular, but also brought significant economic benefits to pump.fun.To this end, Moonshot, a new product that challenges the status of pump.fun, has appeared on the Solana chain. At the same time, there are Meme launch platforms that imitate pump.fun on other public chains, such as Tron’s Sunpump, which are actively competing for share in the Meme market. In terms of launch mechanism, the main improvement of Moonshot compared to pump.fun is to support the initial pool addition of different external DEXs and the differences in initial full market value.Apart from this, the difference between the two in other aspects is not significant.As for Sunpump, its overall mechanism is similar to pump.fun.Since the industry generally follows the principle of “first is first”, even if users are attracted to vampire attacks through incentives such as token airdrops, it is difficult for new entrants to achieve substantial overtake.Next, we combine dune’s data to gain insight into the performance of pump.fun, Moonshot, and Sunpump to evaluate their performance and competitiveness in the market. According to Dune, the pump.fun platform shows a clear lead in key metrics such as the number of token launches, revenue and new addresses to participate.Specifically, the number of token launches of pump.fun on October 23 (written time) reached an astonishing 34,027.In terms of revenue, pump.fun’s performance is equally striking, generating more than $2.09 million in 24 hours.In addition, the growth of daily active addresses reached 107,355, of which 43,760 were new wallets.This data reflects the high participation of users in pump.fun.Together, these data points also portray pump.fun’s strong performance and broad user base in the Meme market. https://dune.com/adam_tehc/memecoin-wars In contrast, the Ethereum main network, which is where the old Meme makes its fortune, does not have a real Meme launch platform, and the only Etherfun platform launched by Vista recently did not receive too much attention.Of course, this may be related to the TPS of the Ethereum mainnet and the high Gas fees, because the launch of low-market Meme requires fast and low-cost transactions to achieve the advantage of quantity.Perhaps in the future, we may see some changes and developments in Layer2 such as Meme divided into good Base. Lifecycle and pricing logic The life cycle of Meme is unpredictable, and its survival time can be as short as a few minutes or as long as a few years.For Memes that can stand the test of time and continue to be popular, they usually go through several different stages of development.Taking DEX and CEX as the boundary, we outline the basic evolution of Meme from the early stages of DEX to the mature stage of CEX.During this process, key indicators such as Meme’s market value and community size will show significant changes.
In terms of market value and user number analysis, we use some stable development Meme projects to form preliminary judgments.According to the analysis of 0xScope’s holders, it was found that the number of Retail Holders is generally much higher than other types of coin holders (such as giant whales and big players), and the tokens they hold account for about 20% to 25% of the total market value..By analyzing the average purchase amount of Retail Holders for Meme coins, we can estimate the market value data. Take the Meme currency with a market capitalization of $1 million, as an example, Retail Holders’ holdings are worth about $200,000 to $250,000.Assuming there are about 1,000 coin holders, the average Meme coin value per person is about $200 to $250.This number falls within the reasonable range of the amount of single coin purchases by currency users in the currency circle. This estimation method provides us with an intuitive perspective to help us evaluate the correlation between Meme’s market value and user engagement.
https://dune.com/dyorcrypto/memecoins Of course, based on the above rough pricing, we can try to find a more accurate method or framework to evaluate the fair value of Meme.To do this, we can take a similar approach to value investment valuation.Research and study existing Meme valuation and its related data, and statistically analyze the valuation changes of different types of Memes at various stages of development, as well as the dynamics of on-chain data. Generally speaking, the initial price of Meme is usually determined by the AMM model based on market supply and demand dynamics.Once the initial unit price is determined, the Meme market value can be calculated by multiplying the unit price by circulation.It should be noted that this market value will followChanges in market conditions and dynamic adjustments in liquidity pools fluctuate. According to the constant product formula of AMM,The growth curve of capital inflows, the proportion of tokens in the initial liquidity pool, and the selling pressure will all affect market value.The simplest formula for basic models is:The market value doubles, the net inflow is doubled, the market value doubles, and the net inflow is tripled.However, this has not yet included some complex factors, such as: 1. Transaction fees paid for liquidity providers (LPs); 2. Capital inflows and outflows from liquidity pools (LP pools). In a market with actual dynamic changes, the pricing model cannot be so ideal. To do this, the fair price of Meme should be calculated based on other indicators, for exampleTrading volume, number of transactions, distribution of users holding coinswait.Of course, this is a way of cost driving market value.As costs continue to increase, Meme’s market value should also increase accordingly.When breaking down these costs, the first thing to notice is the handling fees brought by transaction volume.These fees constitute the main cost of maintaining market value.In addition, there are other hidden costs: each transaction requires payment of Gas fees and currency holders to the blockchain network.Time cost of funds.The cumulative effect of these costs may have a significant impact on Meme’s overall market capitalization.We believe that this can explain the fair value of Meme to a certain extent, but it is not a universal pricing formula either. Blue chips from VC perspective Meme Judging from the data, Meme is no longer just a small circle of things. They now have their own characteristics. As VCs, everyone has also paid attention to this sector.So, just like investing in other projects, if VCs want to participate in Meme, they must first find blue chips Memes that can withstand the market fluctuations and perform stably. To identify high-quality Memes, several key features are usually focused on: persistence, communication ability, and community activity.A quality Meme should have long-term appeal, be able to spread easily, and have a passionate community support.These factors form the basis for Meme’s success. For Memes driven by community or funding market capitalization management teams, it is necessary to understand the key players behind the push.This may include giant whales or other key stakeholders.Understanding the drivers behind these is crucial to assessing the potential and credibility of Meme.Without market capitalization management, the community plays a major role in the Meme project.Their enthusiasm and engagement can influence Meme’s popularity and market value.Unconscious collective actions, such as promotion and discussion on social media, can greatly promote the spread and acceptance of Meme.therefore,The role of the community in the Meme project cannot be ignored, it directly affects the success of Meme. To this end, we believe that the PvE Memecoins proposed by Murad in Meme Supercycle’s speech is very vivid, please refer to the following two pictures for details.
in conclusion Meme is becoming a new battlefield for VCs, which tests whether VCs can keep up with the pulse of the market. The trends of Degen users on the chain also provide VCs with a window to understand user needs.However, Meme does not open the door directly to VCs.The so-called Supercycle statement is even more likely to cause VCs to fall into FOMO.Cruel data show that don’t be blinded by survivor bias, successful Memes are only a few.therefore,If you want to succeed in the Meme field, VCs have to invest a lot of time and effort to tap into those real blue chip Memes.This battlefield is not a place where you can get rich returns by investing in a wide net.
