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Author: Ciaran Lyons, CoinTelegraph; Compilation: Baishui, Bitchain Vision
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, saidThe start of US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds will be more difficult, but the impact on asset prices may be greater than that of Bitcoin ETFs on BTC.
“The initial weeks may fluctuate because funds may flow out after the $11 billion worth of Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is converted to ETP,” Hougan said.
He added:“By the end of the year, I believe it will hit a new high.”He reiterated that we should not expect significant results “immediately” as potential selling pressures are similar to those faced when Bitcoin ETF trading was launched on January 11.
Three reasons why Ethereum ETFs will have greater impact
Hougan gives three main reasons why he believes Ethereum ETFs will have a greater impact on asset prices:Given the widespread use of Ethereum applications, Ethereum’s inflation rate is actually zero compared to the “small amount of ETH” generated every day.
Additionally, Bitcoin miners were forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations because Bitcoin was “expensive and required high-end computer chips and a lot of energy.”By comparison,Those who pledge ETH have no “significant direct costs”.
Another reason is,About one-third of ETH (28%) were pledged and locked for a while.“Currently, 28% of ETH is being staked, which means it has actually exited the market,” he said.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said expectations for spot Ethereum ETF are growing as Hougan makes the comments, which is expected to debut on July 23.
By the end of the year, Ethereum price could reach $5,000
According to CoinMarketCap data, Hougan predicts,The product will push Ethereum’s price to exceed $5,000 by the end of 2024, up 47% from the current $3,401.
Ethereum prices have risen by 10.31% over the past seven days.Source: CoinMarketCap
However, Hougan said that this forecast could be too conservative if inflows exceed market expectations.
“If inflows exceed expectations from many market commentators, the price may be higher.” He claimed that this is consistent with the predictions of anonymous cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Trades, who also argued that potential inflows of Ethereum ETFs were underestimated.
“My expectations are still a little more optimistic than most people in terms of ETF traffic,” Daan Crypto Trade wrote in a July 17 X post.
They further noted that Ethereum’s price “placed above” the 200-day moving average (MA) “will eventually break through before and after the ETF launch.”
Source: Daan Crypto Trades
Meanwhile, the anonymous cryptocurrency trader Kaleo’s view is contrary to Daan Crypto Trades – he believes thatAfter the launch of the Ethereum ETF, Ethereum price will show a spiral downward trend.
“I’ll take the opposite view here and say I believe Ethereum will actually drop relative to BTC next week,” he said.they added.
While Hougan is optimistic that Ethereum will reach $5,000 or more by the end of the year, futures traders bet on Ethereum prices to fall in the near future.
According to CoinGlass, an Ethereum price rise of 10% to $3,750 will result in a short liquidation of $1.31 billion, while a 10% drop will result in a long position of $544.39.
