jakiro
Author:@web3mario
summary
In the next week, there is no doubt that global attention will be focused on the US election, so it took some time to carefully sort out the next time nodes and core highlights, and look forward to the subsequent influence.In general, in the next week starting from Tuesday, November 5th, the results of the election will be announced one after another. During this time, the progress announced will continue to affect asset prices.
Different from the election policies of various states, the results of the results of the US election will last about a week.
When chatting with friends around me, I found that everyone is not very clear about the time and rhythm of the next week. Everyone thinks that the results will be released on the evening of November 5 (Beijing time on the morning of the 6th). In factDifferent policies on the rules and mailing votes are different from the announcement of the results, so first of all, I want to talk about the time rhythm of the US presidential election.Start with the overall election rhythm. In the next period of time, the overall rhythm is as follows:
1. 1.Election dayTheThe Presidential Election Day in the United States is usually set on Tuesday after the first Monday of November.Voters will vote for the president and vice presidential candidate on this day.This is an indirect election because voters are actually voting for members of the election group in the state.
2.Elected group votingTheThe United States adopts the election group system.The number of votes in each state is determined by the number of members of the state’s parliament (the number of members+the number of senators), a total of 538 electoral votes.Most of the states adopt the rules of “winners all”, that is, a majority of votes that win a state can get all the votes of the state (the exception of Maine and Nebraska).Presidential candidates need to get at least 270 votes to win.
3..The election group officially votedTheThe members of the election group voted on the second Monday in December and officially elected the president and vice president.The voting results will be sealed and submitted to Congress for certification.
4. 4..Congress certificationTheAt the beginning of January of the following year, the new Congress held a meeting on January 6 to formally count the voting results of the electoral group.If there is no objection, the election results of the president and vice president will be confirmed.
5.President officeTheElected by the president and vice president will swore to work on January 20, officially becomes the new president and vice president, and began a four -year term.
Therefore, on Tuesday next week, that is, on November 5th, US time, most of the swing states will vote from 6 am and continue to vote until 7 to 9 pm.After the voting was over, the voting session was then entered, but due to the different policies of each state, the announcement time was different.Here is a summary of some of the more critical states. The following states are often announced late:
1. 1.California:California allows a longer mailing voting reception period. As long as the mailing votes are sent on the day of the election and arrived within the specified date, the total number of votes can be included.At the same time, because the state has a large population and allows more time to count votes, it is often one of the latest states in the country to announce the complete results.
2.Pennsylvania:Pennsylvania usually starts to handle mail votes on the day of the election, which leads to the slower ticket processing process, especially in the year when the number of voters is high.And as a key swing state, that is, the so -called “battlefield state”, Pennsylvania’s votes are usually highly concerned, but the voting process is relatively late.Therefore, the final result was announced several days after the election.
3..Michigan and Wisconsin: These two states also processed mail votes on the day of the election day, and as a swing state, a small number of votes gap will lead to longer votes to ensure accuracy. Generally, it will be completed the next night to complete the next night.Voting.
4. 4..Nevada: Nevada allows mailing votes to arrive in several days after the election, so the results may be delayed for a few days, especially when the election years and the number of votes are large.
5.North Carolina:North Carolina allows receiving mailing votes within 9 days after the election day, as long as the votes are sent before or on the day of the election.This makes the final result of the state often delay.The results will not be announced after a week.
Everyone may find that in addition to the California’s iron ticket warehouse as the Democratic Party, most of them are swing states. Among them, Pennsylvania is a key battlefield state.climax.
The House elections are also very important because determining the implementation of the future fiscal policy in the United States
In addition to the presidential election, the results of the U.S. House of Representatives are equally important. We know that in the US federal government, the president, the Senate and the House of Representatives have constituted the core structure of the three powers.The president has the administrative power, and the Senate and the House of Representatives (collectively known as the Congress) jointly control the legislative power.Between these three, they are both independent and closely related to achieve checks and balances and supervision.Among them, the House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress and has the following main powers:
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Legislative: Drafting and voting bills of the House of Representatives completed the legislative functions with the Senate.
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Financial power: The US Constitution stipulates that all the financial and tax bills must be proposed by the House of Representatives to ensure that taxpayers have direct representatives.
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Impeachment right: The House of Representatives has the power to impeach, and can be impeached to the president or federal officials, but the trial rights are returned to the Senate.
Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House of Representatives determines the difficulty of the president when promoting its own economic policy. Presidents who fail to be more than half of the party seats are usually called “minority presidents”, and the difficulty of implementing bills is generally extremely large.The election of the House of Representatives is performed every two years, and the voting of the election election and the presidential election of the election is usually carried out on the same day, usually on the first Tuesday of November each year.On this day, voters voted to choose the president and all 435 house seats.Therefore, in general, the results of the two elections will be gradually announced in a similar time period, but the specific order may be different.However, under normal circumstances, due to the small number of the House of Representatives and the faster voting count, the results are more advanced.
The follow -up impact of the output election results
In the previous article, we have analyzed the respective economic policies of the two parties. Here we briefly review that the Democratic Party Harris mainly uses “opportunity economics” as its core economy. In summary, it is to increase government investmentAs well as increasing taxes and other methods, in the four aspects of housing, medical care, education, and daily necessities, the level of household income is increased.The general expectation of the market is that Harris’ economic policy will further increase the government’s fiscal burden and further crack down on US dollar credit. At the same time, the wealth effect brought by large water release will help push high inflation.The government uses the government for mandatory intervention to curb it, so I think that inflation will be in the overall trend of gradually accelerating.
And Trump can basically use the following three dimensions in terms of economic aspects. First of all, low internal low tax rates, high tariffs on foreign countries, and secondly through means of interest cutting to reduce the exchange rate of the US dollar to major manufacturing countries. Finally, the new energy industry is opposed.Promoting the traditional energy industry; this policy is closely related to the interest group behind it -the rust belt’s blue -collar class.Although isolationism and trade protection policies have obvious effects in cracking down on foreign products and revitalizing the low -end manufacturing industry in the United States, considering the current industrial structure of the United States, the implementation of these policies will take time, and it will be accompanied by high inflation pressure.Even Trump must consider how to use the US dollar hegemony status to alleviate these problems.There are some signs that he may choose to achieve this goal through Bitcoin, because of this because Trump has expressed his attention to the “American Bitcoin production capacity” many times.He advocates ensuring that the remaining Bitcoin will be produced in the United States.Considering his support for traditional energy industries such as petroleum, the energy consumption industry of Bitcoin mining pool can help increase the demand for oil and increase the added value of the industry.Secondly, Trump’s views have changed significantly during the term of his term, shifting from the value of Bitcoin to recognize its value as a product.The logic of this change is still related to the pricing power advantage of the US dollar.Because the current Bitcoin’s liquidity is mainly maintained by stable coins linked to the US dollar, the US dollar actually has the pricing power of Bitcoin.By determining Bitcoin as a commodity and actively promoting the consensus worldwide, US dollar capital can establish an advantage in this field to achieve benefits of benefits.
Therefore, in summary, I think that if Harris is elected, the “Trump Trading” will be disintegrated quickly, and the price of BTC will be quickly pulled back, but it will then re -enter the shock rising stage.Assets will be affected by the wealth effect to re -re -re -cattle market, and the form is more similar to the general increase of the 21 -year epidemic.If Trump is elected, the price of the Sell the Truth will also occur in the price of BTC in the short term.It is too easy to have a comprehensive bull market. It is more that the wealth effect brought by the BTC appreciation is overflowing. The funds will rotate between multiple hotspots, which are similar to the market at the end of 23 years.
Of course, if the elected party becomes a “minority president”, the situation will become more complicated. It also needs to continue to pay attention to the game of the two parties on economic policies.Significant increase.
