jakiro
introduction
As long as you are an encrypted player, then you have heard the myths of Pump.fun and Polymarket.
In the past few months, from $ PEPE to $ Dogwifhat, to $ Boden to $ Mother, Memecoin has almost dominated every corner of the encryption.The MEMECOIN frenzy brought millions of dollars in profits for early participants and Raydium, such as Raydium.
The wealth effect brought by Memecoin has also promoted Solana’s daily active users of 18.7 times since the beginning of the year.Among them, pump.fun is particularly noticeable. With this boom, it creates a mini currency platform that is easy to start and does not need to be programmed, through 1%transaction fee and 2 SOL startup fee, creating nearly $ 100 million US dollars of $ 100 millionincome.Considering that the required technical barriers and development work are low, this is a very favorable business.(*Recently canceled the starting fee of 2 solids to improve the usage rate)
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Source: @Adam_tehc Dune-Dashboard
At the same time, another PolyGon Polymarket based on Polygon, as the US election approaches, has received significant attention and transaction volume.At present, the platform has more than $ 100 million in active bets (unclear contracts) and 7-8,000 daily active wallets.
In addition to elections, the increase in the attention of the platform has also promoted the increase in transaction volume of non -election events, such as popular themes such as popular culture and “monkey acne”.For example, the topic of “Paris Olympic Games” ‘has attracted more than $ 7.8 million in bets.Polymarket did not charge any fees, so it could not reflect its income from the data.
In the absence of incentives, these two products have shown significant organic growth in terms of user attention and transaction volume, and it is rare in the current encryption market.Their success is not only in line with the current narrative, but also because they have performed well in the three key aspects of the application of Web3 consumer applications:
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Financial element
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Social element
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Seasonal driving factor
Today, we will discuss the cases of Polymarket and Pump.fun, as well as experience that web3 consumer applications can learn from it to achieve organic growth that does not rely on points incentives.
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1. 1.Reason one: Tian Shi
Polymarket:
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Source: @s8 dune-dashboard
It is well known that elections have always been the main driving force for the growth of Polymarket.
In May 2023, Polymarket became popular because of the results of more than 60 markets in the Titan submersible.Since June 2024, the transaction volume of political related events on Polymarket has increased from approximately $ 110 million to $ 330 million.The topic is mainly related to Biden’s steps, Trump debates, and other issues related to elections.
According to the@Richardchen39 of 1confirmation, Polymarket currently exceeds 94%of the transaction volume is related to the election, and the topic related to sports and macro market predictions is less than 6%. For exampleOlympic medal? “.
So far, there is no doubt that the election is the main catalyst behind the “Mass Adoption” story.Given the growth of transaction volume is mainly driven by strong seasonal factors, the transaction volume after the election is also a matter of attention that the platform is worthy of attention.
Pump.fun:
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Source: @hashd_officail dus-dashboard
The fancoin enthusiasts such as $ wif and $ bonk have stimulated the creation of pump.fun. This is a Memecoin promoter that allows tens of thousands of users to create tokens easily in a few seconds in a few seconds.
The platform became popular because it gave birth to multiple viral Memecoin, including celebrities such as $ Daddy and $ Mother, or animal currencies such as $ Michi and $ Billy.This has created a trend of “gold rush”, and users are constantly trying to create the next 100 -fold tokens.By charging a 1%fee for each transaction, the platform has obtained huge profits from this activity to create a nearly $ 100 million income.
The influence of pump.fun can be observed through its related tokens on the decentralized exchange. At present, these tokens account for about 60%of the transaction volume.However, although the easily issued tokens is good for users, it also attracts bad actors.According to Protos.com’s data, in 1.7 million Memecoin, only 41 have reached and maintained a high market value, which means that the chance of “success” is close to 0.00002%.
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2.Reason 2: Crypto is a kind of attention economy
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Source: iosg
Polymarket and pump.fun are very different platforms that serve different purposes.
PolyMarket is a platform that allows users to speculate on the results of events in real life through bets.In contrast, Pump.fun is a tokeer promoter that allows any user to “tokens” in various purposes, including various events in gambling real life, and various MEME’s attention economy.
They are in common that they are highly sensitive to events in real life.”The best example is the positive correlation between elections -based market transaction volume and the number of tokens cast on pump.fun.”
This is a very powerful advantage for the two platforms, because major real world events (such as Trump’s shot) can attract Web2 and Web3 audience limited attention and participation resources.These headline news on Google or any media can attract millions or even trillions of exposure for a topic.Polymarket and pump.fun successfully transformed this focus into a market. People can invest capital in this market to express their views and make money from it.
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Source: li Jin, Twitter
This is a new attention economic market paradigm. It is driven by Web3 technology in the form of “tokenization”, and a P2P platform that can bet on anonymous and transparent betting.The demand is super strong, no platform plan is required to guide users.
On the other hand, real -time odds are one of the reasons for Polymarket to provide Web2 with huge statistical value.According to data from Similarweb.com, Polymarket’s total number of website visits is 9 million, close to the total access volume of platforms such as Telegram and NOTION.
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Source: Similarweb.com
These statistics show that users not only use Polymarket for gambling, but also observe more accurate directions and odds for major events. This statement has also been supported by Dune Analytics:
“When money is stakehold, in order to control losses or seize the opportunity, decision -making is often more aggressive and instant than decision -making based on ideological beliefs.”
So far, 85%of the initialization problem on Polymarket has been solved, and 15%are still waiting for the results.Polymarket uses UMA optimistic prophecy to solve the time limit event. This is a system that proposals can propose answers and pledge assets to obtain market results.In contrast, Pump.fun has no direct solution, and the predicted results can only be indirectly reflected from the corresponding token price.For example, $ Boden fell 95%after the news of Boden’s steps.Therefore, compared with Polymarket, the statistical value provided by Pump.fun is limited, mainly as a rough indicator for measuring the popularity of the event.
Having said that, Pump.fun is still an excellent platform for creators to pay attention and influence monetization.Anyone, including celebrities and encryption users, can build a larger community based on token price speculation and personal brands.
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3..Reason three: Three of the successful candles
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Source: iosg
3.1 Financial Elements -The First Candle
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Source: @lifewillbeokay dune-dashboard
Blockchain is a highly financial -driven industry and technology.
Each popular project has a very powerful financial element, and the “product” born from these elements requires a certain value.Value comes from the form of income, security, transparency, data or decentralization. These values are not found anywhere by users except your products.Different from traditional gaming applications that must comply with regulations and compliance requirements (illegal bets in the election), platforms like Polymarket and Pump.fun allow users to keep anonymous while speculating in real world events.
Polymarket provides the most unique and attractive financial tools to use its CLOB (central price limit order book) and Negwisk, and benefit from using the transparency brought by the CTF of GNOSIS to make the most unique and attractive financial tools.Betting.Users can deposit USDC and bet on anything they think they can win, adding a “financial” layer to all events in real life.
When writing this article, Polymarket has organized more than $ 432 million in transaction volume through its CLOB in the past 28 days, which is equivalent to Sushiswap’s $ 535 million in transaction volume.On the other hand, Pump.fun’s financial elements include pre -built Bonding Curve for “fair distribution” and automatically deploy liquidity pools (LP) after filling curve.This platform not only provides “tokens” their influence or tools needed for “tokenization”, but also provides seamless transactions to improve the efficiency of issuing token.
In addition, the tokens issued on this platform also represent a “financial element” because they reflect the topic of cultural value, perspectives, or any attractive attention.Big trading activities generated by Pump.fun also benefit relevant parties, such as network activities, DEX transaction volume, Telegram Bot, and MEV.One example is JITO pledged. Due to the increase in online activities, they can get up to $ 624,000 a MEV reward every day.
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Source: @ILEMI DUNE-DASHBOARD
3.2Social Elements -Second Candle
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Source: iosg
Now, with part of the financial component, Polymarket and Pump.fun have begun to embed social functions in their products, trying to retain users, while creating the network effects required by their growth projects.
With the development of Polymarket, it is obvious that the social elements in the application have been significantly enhanced.In their products, in each separate market, there are community -related functions, such as the comment area, users can express their views on bets.
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Source: Polymarket
Taking the hottest topic “2024 Presidential Election winner” as an example, there are more than 33,700 comments in this topic.This is important because it not only improves the community participation on the Polymarket, but also attracts new users to join the conversation.
In the past seven days, the stickiness looks very strong, with an average return rate of 60-70%.
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Source: @lifewillbeany
In addition to the comment area, the percentage of this theme is often used as headlines of different media on election related news, which in turn has attracted more users to join the platform.In just last month, Polymarket attracted 65,000 new users. As more about the market about headline news, as the attention of elections increased, it is expected to continue.
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Source: The Walls Street Journal
On the other hand, Pump.fun has been integrating various social media elements, aiming to build a place where the platform can connect and communicate, not just a token starter to improve product participation.However, since Pump.fun announced the live broadcast function on May 29, their DAU has not improved significantly, stabilized at about 50-60,000 DAUs, accounts increased by 20,000, and substantial growth has not been observed for several months.
On August 23, Pump.fun announced that it shared the screen function and a multi -screen function on the application.Although new users have grown slowly, the intention of building more social functions on the platform is obvious, because the team understands that these functions are needed to excite more excitement around their products.In addition to live broadcasts, the tokens listed on Raydium also play a channel role to attract new users to pump.fun, because more and more users recognize this wealth effect brought by Pump.fun for creators.
In short, social elements are one of the main factors that drive Polymarket and Pump.fun’s attention economy. It is supported by product functional financial engines. Growth can be maintained by participating in the network effects established by the community.
3.3Seasonal driving factor -Third candle
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Source: iosg
Finally, seasonal driver factor plays an important role in improving the popularity of these products and helping products achieve PMF.As I mentioned above, these two products are highly sensitive to events in real life, especially in terms of celebrities, elections and cultural events, these events are “speculative.”For example, because of the upcoming American election, Polymarket has successfully attracted a lot of attention from different channels.At the same time, despite the limited market share, the popularity and transaction volume of non -election betting markets have also surged.
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Source: Presto Research
In addition, the market has been actively creating and betting on the hot topics in Google search.For example, the Google search volume of MPOX diseases increased by 120%, creating betting betting of MPOX -related events worth $ 950,000.This reflects the seasonal driver factor to help Polymarket “integrates” betting culture and push the product to the public.
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Source: Google Trend
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Source: Polymarket
Similarly, Pump.fun also received huge benefits from a series of real life events.For example, Twitter Space, Elon Musk and Donald Trump, created more than 10,000 tokens within 3 hours and revenue more than $ 500,000 on the day.
Although there is a positive correlation between real life and Pump.fun activities, we cannot ignore the success of Pump.fun, which also depends on the rise of Memecoin culture, such as Celebrity $ Daddy and $ Mother.This trend has been supported and promoted by well -known people in the industry, including @Weremeow and ANSEM and others, which greatly improved Pump.fun’s popularity.From April to August, the number of deployment of tokens showed a significant upward trend, from 300,000 to 1.6 million, an increase of 5 times.
With the financial components and social elements inside the product, the seasonal driver factor lights up the last candle and pushes the product to unprecedented growth.
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Source: Hashed_offect, DuneDashboard
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4. 4..Conclusion
For each agreement, to maintain competitiveness in this field, they must meet three basic elements (three candles):
The financial element provides the “value” it needs for the agreement to start the participation of the economy and let users insist on using the system.Social elements improve user stickiness on the basis of existing financial elements, and create a new community.Seasonal drivers have promoted the continuous growth of protocols that have performed well in terms of social and financial elements.
From the experience of Pump Fun and Polymarket, we learned that any consumer application in Web3 should first build a strong financial element, which can make profits or obtain inherent value.Then, combined with the built -in network effect, users are encouraged to actively participate and attract new users through additional channels.The tokens are effective tools to guide this network effect in the early stages.Finally, it attracts the attention of the web2 community through seasonal drive factors, and improves the usage rate and usage rate.
Having said that, considering the lack of new hotspots in the application layer, the current encrypted market is more PVP -dominated than ever, and most activities are driven by incentives or speculation.Users have too many similar choices on different chains. The protocol tries to copy the success of existing cases and fails to bring novel ideas.
To break this duplicate PVP cycle, the next unicorn company must stand out from the product level innovation to solve the real user problems. With the arrival of seasonal driving factors, it will naturally trigger the widespread use of users.
