Polymarket’s unique value

Author: Four Pillars, encryption VC, Translation: Bit Chain Vision Xiaozou

People have high expectations for consumer applications, and believe that the field will promote Crypto’s commercialization process in the near future.Farcaster has demonstrated the potential of social applications optimized as encrypted infrastructure, and the consumer application ecosystem is surrounding Solana and Base.

This shows that most market participants recognize that consumer applications have played a key role in evolving Crypto from 24/7 all -weather casino to financial infrastructure that supports practical value.

As the encrypted industry enters the stage of consumer applications, Polymarket temporarily replaced the existing forecast market, which is of great significance in this aspect.

12. Background: Group wisdom is a way to illuminate the future

The US presidential election is one of the world’s most noticeable events. With the public’s attention on the US presidential election, users who have predicted a large number of bets on the market have emerged.Therefore, as of June, the data displayed by the leading forecast market platform PolyMarket is impressive: the monthly transaction volume exceeds $ 110 million, and about 3,000 traders per day have conducted over 10,000 transactions.On the first day of the US presidential election, about 4,000 traders participated in the Polymarket’s prediction market.As the public interest of the election has increased recently, the daily transaction volume of the platform has soared to nearly 30 million US dollars.

Polymarket is famous for precise predictions. For example, Kamala Harris is nominated as Democratic candidates and JD Vance is very likely to become Trump’s vice presidential candidate, which is consistent with the later official announcement.Therefore, Polymarket’s prediction consensus is increasingly regarded as a more accurate signal than traditional media.Even important mainstream media, including the Wall Street Journal, regard Polymarket as a reliable barometer for public emotions.This attention has been converted into market -leading role. Polymarket occupies 80%of the market share in all US elections, and it is even more amazing than the web2 forecast market platform.

Polymarket plays two important market characters.First, it provides a variety of speculative ways.Secondly, it forms predictive opinions from the results of these speculative activities. The current betting status of future events is a major indicator of predictive public opinions.Therefore, Polymarket transforms the speculative needs of market participants into a collection tool, using group wisdom to explain the possibility of the future.

Polymarket can specify almost any incidents with clear results, providing market participants with meaningful speculative ways.It is worth noting that it allows direct investment in the incident itself, rather than indirect investment in assets related to certain events or information.For example, users can directly bet whether ETF will be approved, not based on Ethereum ETF approval to bet ETH spot or ETH -related assets.This method does not need to consider the complexity and variables of the market, which greatly improves the information utilization and simplifies the decision -making process.

In addition, PolyMarket is still a key prediction tool for the future risk of overload and encryption market.The characteristics of the encrypted market are that specific narratives have a significant impact on asset prices, as they still lack a clear consensus on fundamental value.As the number of emerging projects continues to increase, the scale and diversity of information that market participants need to absorb are also increasing.Polymarket solves this problem. It aggregates scattered predictions into a unified perspective through economic incentives, which may provide a more objective perspective without interference from personal prejudice or misunderstanding.

2,in conclusion:PolymarketBalanced design

Polymarket’s recent performance is particularly attractive that it is a rare competition with Web2 as a chain application, which is very rare.So, what unique factors have contributed to the unique market position of Polymarket?

By studying the history of consumer applications in the encryption industry, we can find that in many cases, it is likely that the failure is likely to be due to the two factors of conflict.For example, applications that only pay attention to speculative needs do not consider what problems to solve or provide users with real value.Although these applications may experience short -term hype, they lack persistence.In the case of overheating markets, they may attract people’s attention, but when they cannot meet speculative demand, of course, they will disappear.

Another application is too much concerned about the value that has nothing to do with speculative demand.Although the definition and solutions raised by most projects have their own advantages, these are usually only important to developers. This is their vision and task, but they cannot resonate with users.Therefore, these applications have not been used by users of large -scale, and they have to face who should use them and why they use them.

Betting is the core function of Polymarket.This design is essentially a good category of speculative needs.On the other hand, the prediction formed in this bet also serves as a tool for public opinion collection, reflecting the objective public opinion based on economic incentives.In other words, it shows the potential of extensive adoption as an application in addition to speculation.Therefore, PolyMarket provides users with meaningful speculative ways by meeting speculative needs and predicting information needs. At the same time, it has aimed at a wide range of user bases through its application design and established a unique market position.