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Author: Parafi Capital; Compilation: 0xxz@作 作 作 作 作
Given the recent explosive growth of Polymarket, the Parafi team has been analyzing the data on the chain to understand two key issues:
1) Which factors have promoted the recent attraction of Polymarket?
2) To what extent is the growth of PolyMarket’s growth by the US election?
As a background, Parafi has been researching and investing in the market since 2018.Today, Parafi is the largest single investor in Polymarket. It invested in the seed wheels in 2020 and doubled in the following years.
As the 2024 US election approaches, Polymarket’s transaction volume has reached $ 688 million (Note: The latest data has exceeded $ 1 billion), and active users have increased by about 14 times per week, from about 1400 people to more than 20,000 people to more than 20,000 peoplepeople.
However, the transaction volume is only part of the story.There are more things to be unveiled.
Polymarket website traffic
Polymarket is widely considered to be the “source source” of the world’s most critical events in real time. Presidential candidates and Bloomberg News Agency, Wall Street Journal and other media have quoted it.
Polymarket.com’s network traffic has grown in index.In the past 12 months, the daily page views have increased by 10 times, and the cumulative page views have exceeded 32 million.In the second half of July, the daily page views reached 1.3 million peaks, and the daily tourists reached a peak of 185,000.
Through these data, we can see that the number of people visiting Polymarket.com is a few magnitude higher than the number of users who actual transactions.Polymarket’s popularity shows that the platform is becoming a powerful alternative to traditional media.
Is election the only factor that promotes Polymarket’s popularity?
Not exactly.Among the nearly 70,000 addresses that have used PolyMarket, only 42%of people have selected the election related market for the first time transaction.EssenceThe remaining 58%(about 40,000 users) initially traded in the non -electoral market, including culture, commerce, science and macro markets.
Some of our favorite markets include: Olympic medals, Taylor Swift schedules, and GPT-5 release date.
Although the first trading activity is more balanced,In recent weeks, more than 70% of the daily transaction volume calculated in the US dollar is related to the election related marketEssenceIt is not surprising that the approaching and volatility of events before and after the election is.
But other markets have also successfully attracted the public’s attention.For example, in May 2024, the surge in non -election related transaction volume was promoted by the Ethereum ETF approved market, and the cumulative transaction volume of the market exceeded $ 13 million.
The transaction volume of non -election related markets has also increased significantly this year, which has increased by 391%so far this year.
Of the more than 28,000 users who bet on the relevant market for the first time, 56%then traded in other markets.
Basically, almost half of the users who traded in related markets for the first time turned to markets covering themes such as economy, sports and cryptocurrencies.
How about the retention rate of polymarket
The quarterly retention rate of different groups is another proof of users staying on the platform.Among the users who joined the platform in the first quarter of 2023, at least 15% of users used the platform every quarter.
Perhaps more importantly, as the quarterly moves, the retention rate has not dropped sharply.So far, the regression ratio of the user group in the first quarter of 2023 in the third quarter of 2023 was roughly the same as the third quarter of 2024.
With the hype of the election related transactions, the retention rate in recent quarters has actually been slightly improved, because traders of early groups have the motivation to return to the platform.
The recent retention rate of the group has also been much higher.In the first quarter of 2024, more than 45% of the users who carried out the first transaction on Polymarket traded in the next quarter, while only 25% of the first trading users in the first quarter of 2023.
The transaction volume is soaring
The transaction volume is only part of the overall transaction activity.The amount of matching transactions on Polymarket has been consistent with the trend of the transaction amount we see.Since the beginning of this year, the daily transaction volume has jumped more than 3,000%, and it has exceeded 40,000 at the end of July.
Considering the rise of other indicators, the increase in the number of matching transactions is not shocking, but it does indicate that the increase in transaction volume is not just because users have made higher amounts of bets.Polymarket’s actual transaction volume is also increasing.
It is also worth noting that the daily matching transaction volume has been rising in addition to the number of daily active users.Although this trend has fluctuated so far this year, this ratio shows that on average, users have a higher participation in the platform every day.
Super user -led role weaker
From the perspective of transaction volume data, super users do not necessarily lead the platform.
We define super users as people who have a daily transaction volume of at least 250,000 US dollars.In the first and second quarters of 2024, super users accounted for 51%of the daily transaction volume.But as Polymarket’s user base has changed to small traders, their market share has been declining recently.
other
The Parafi team is glad to continue to follow and cooperate with Polymarket in the next few years.We believe that predicting the market is a precious tool for humans -by using group wisdom to act as a “truth machine”.Our feeling is that this is just the beginning of PolyMarket.
Disclaimer: All data is based on Polymarket’s central price limit order book, from November 21, 2022 to July 29, 2024 (excluding automatic market data).
The election related market covers a market with a large scale (transaction volume of more than 1 million US dollars) that has been determined by the Parafi team with the results of the 2024 US presidential election.Non -elected related markets indeed include small market -related markets.
“User” is defined as an address for any market or recipient of Polymarket.Although all the queries used in this article are developed by the Parafi team, we appreciate the existing DUNE dashboard created by @Richardchen3 and @/Lifewillbeokay, which provides us with useful inspiration.
The above content is for reference only.It should not be regarded as investment suggestions.
