jakiro
Author: Climber, Bitchain Vision Realm
With the convening of the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, the price of BTC has continued to rise.During the period, especially after Trump’s speech, the encryption market was significantly warmed up as a whole.This can not help but continue the “Trump transaction” that had previously turned off again, becoming a reference for investor layout.
“Trump Trading” generally refers to a series of investment operations based on Trump’s policy expectations, including more cryptocurrencies. The logic behind this is to bet on Trump after being elected.The impact caused.Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin Conference undoubtedly strengthened the confidence of encrypted investors.As of the writing, the price of BTC is close to the $ 70,000 mark, which has greatly surpassed the previous high.
However, because Harris’s campaign has caused the US President’s dispute to fall into fog again, whether the Trump crypto effect is really effective, how the crypto market will go in the second half of the year, etc.I have my own opinion.
Trump’s new Crypto Declaration
On July 28, Trump said at the Bitcoin 2024 conference that after being elected, Bitcoin pledged by the government was completely retained as a strategic reserve and would not allow selling behaviors.
In addition, Trump also explicitly stated that many important encryption views.like:
The reason for participating in the 2024 Bitcoin Conference is to keep the United States a leading position in the cryptocurrency field.The United States will become the world’s cryptocurrency capital and the world’s Bitcoin superpower.
Bitcoin is “a miracle for cooperation and human achievements.”If we do not embrace cryptocurrencies and bitcoin technology, other countries will dominate.Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and currency that is not forced and controlled by the government.
On the first day of election, Gary Gensler, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Bitcoin will not threaten the US dollar, and the current US government’s behavior is threatening the US dollar.
Bitcoin market value will surpass gold in the future.Since the birth of Bitcoin, the market value has become higher and higher since its birth. It has become the ninth asset of global market value. It will soon surpass silver and will surpass gold in the future.
Once again, it is promised to reduce the sentence for the founder of the Silk Road Ross Ulbrich.
The above remarks are extremely beautiful in Bitcoin and even the entire encryption industry. It not only regards BTC as an asset that can surpass gold, but also holds it as a national strategic level.From the perspective of this “short check”, it is undoubtedly huge for the encryption industry.
Affected by the Bitcoin Conference and Trump’s speeches, many well -known institutions and KOL followed the trend to see more Bitcoin, and they gave their predictions.
Micro Strategy founder Michael Saylor first gave the future price of Bitcoin like Tianfang Ye Tan. He said that with the increase in adoption rate, Bitcoin as a digital capital may make the price of each bitcoin exceeded 1300 by 2045 that in 204510,000 dollars.In the case of a bear market, the price of Bitcoin may be $ 3 million.But in the case of a bull market, the price of Bitcoin may reach $ 49 million.
Asset management company VANECK predicts that in 2050, the price of Bitcoin may reach $ 2.9 million per USD, becoming a global trading medium and reserve currency.10X Research also expects that Bitcoin will eventually break through a new high.
The positive influence of Trump’s speech on the encryption market is also reflected in the trader’s strategy. Markus Thielen, the CEO of 10X Research before his speech, mentioned in the analysis report that the Trump speech may push the BTC price, Futures contract traders will not choose to short. Bitcoin.
In addition, in response to Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin Conference, Wu Jiezhuang, a member of the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, stated on the X platform that Bitcoin and Web3 are important nodes for global development and should encourage global development.In the future, you can consider incorporating Bitcoin into strategic fiscal reserves under compliance.
It can be seen that while Trump’s speech brings good expectations for investors, it has also raised Bitcoin’s financial value attributes to the international competition level.
The second stage of the bull market is opened?
Although Trump had a phenomenon of multiple related MEME concept coins after his speech, the price of BTC rose.Moreover, since the Bitcoin Conference has been held, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has increased its holdings of net inflows every day.It can be seen that the encrypted market market seems to be rising.
Previously, Pantera Capital expects that the crypto market is entering the second stage of the bull market. The reason is that the attitude of political and regulatory positions on cryptocurrencies is actively changing.Therefore, at the moment when Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are increasingly recognized by the mainstream, the next wave of Gagang bulls may not come.
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The recently bullish and good signals are as follows:
NANSEN analyst: Investors should increase their risks. Do not ignore the current favorable signals and market narratives, including the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cutting heating up, US presidential candidate Trump leader in polls, and Bitcoin kinetic energy indicators higher than buying thresholds.In addition, the amount of capital inflows of the spot Bitcoin ETF are increasing, and the market value of stablecoin is also accelerating, indicating that net inflows in the chain increase.
Wintermute: The market value of stable currency exceeds 164 billion US dollars, supporting the market’s bullish prospects.The increase in stable currency supply shows that funds are being deposited into the ecosystem on the chain to generate economic activities, which will eventually promote positive chain growth.
British “Financial Times”: US Vice President Harris campaign team is seeking to restart contact with Bitcoin and encrypted teams.The team claims that the initiative to re -establish connections with the cryptocurrency industry is mainly to establish a positive relationship with the crypto industry, and paving the road for a reasonable regulatory framework.
Cryptoquant founder: This round may last until mid -2025.
People familiar with the matter revealed that Trump has discussed cryptocurrency policy with Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
American Senator Cynthia Lummis said it will propose a bill in early August to allow the US Treasury to purchase 1 million Bitcoin (worth about $ 69 billion) within five years to offset the impact of the US dollar depreciation.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO announced that it would give Trump a Bitcoin mined in 2013 to formally become a Bitcoin holder.
Santime, a cryptocurrency intelligence platform, pointed out that Bitcoin’s weighted emotional index has risen to the highest level since March 2023.Bitcoin rose by 20%within 3 weeks, which made traders lies more than early month.
GlassNode: Before the price of BTC fell to a $ 53,000 area, it caused meaningful deleveraging events. Many multi -prejudiced traders were liquidated near the low point, but the rebound price rebounded was also very strong. Most short -term holdings were held in the short term.The recovery of the state of profits is not realized, which provides an urgent need for financial relief for the recent weeks of net capital inflows.
Coingecko: 43.7%of the investigators are expected to exceed $ 100,000 in the this round of this cycle.
Analyst ALI on the chain said the data shows that the miners’ surrender (Hash Ribbon) indicator shows that the price of the miner has ended, indicating that the price momentum of Bitcoin may turn from negatively.
The Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) Fedwatch tools show that the possibility of the Fed’s interest rate cut in September has been raised to 85.7%.The analysis pointed out that the market will usher in a tide of interest rate cuts in September
It can be seen from the above information that many incidents and opinions indicate that the Bitcoin and encrypted market markets have a new round of bull market.However, investors still need to pay attention to the existence of potential black swan and gray rhinos.
Main losses such as MT. GOX debt repayment, Trump’s election, blurring in Harris cryptococular standing, regulatory regulation, US stock downward, and so on.
summary
BTC and cottage coins were generally adjusted before the Bitcoin Conference, and the formal approval of the Ethereum spot ETF in the United States has not boosted the crypto market.However, with the opening of the conference, especially Trump’s speech, the attention was successfully gathered to the encryption industry again.As far as the current Bitcoin increases alone, this incident will undoubtedly have a good role in promoting.
Many institutions are full of confidence in the judgment of the market -like encrypted bull market.If Trump can really be selected as expected, then superimposed encrypted cyclicals, BTC may really create income miracles.However, investors should also be blindly optimistic, no matter when the principal is kept by the first principle.
